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engineer_22

1,663 karma · joined August 30, 2019

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engineer_22··on The world may have less time than it thinks on climate change
Capitalism enables too much material wealth. Astounding.
engineer_22··on Hacking IKEA Furniture
To be truly fashionable, one must be /ahead/ of fashion
engineer_22··on Inception-style curved map for turn-by-turn directions
You can calibrate navigation to visual landmarks, i.e. you can see the turn coming up and match it to what you see out your window. But you also still get an overhead "what lies ahead" map for planning your route further out. This is an interesting concept, maybe a hybrid approach would be useful, a simple overhead streets map as default that swaps to the 3rd person view when you approach your turn.
engineer_22··on 507 Mechanical Movements
These things don't have names they have descriptions of how they work. But I see your point that some of them are described only in reference to another movement with a more complete description.
engineer_22··on US debt has hit $40tn - Will that be a wake-up call?
have you considered that closing the straight may be one of the primary objectives of the war?
engineer_22··on US debt has hit $40tn - Will that be a wake-up call?
1) I didn't say it was anyone's "fault"

2) Politicians are behest to the same biophysical limitations we all are. An aging cohort that is done producing but not done consuming is a recipe for sticky inflation. Your reply does not address the point...

3) Maybe boomers is a stupid term, but it is clear and succinct. Your pet sensitivities reveal more about you than they do about me.

engineer_22··on US debt has hit $40tn - Will that be a wake-up call?
You’re right, they’re just numbers. Relative to other economies they can tell us the strength of US hegemony but, the numbers are not a reliable indicator of themselves - because the money isn’t “real”.
engineer_22··on US debt has hit $40tn - Will that be a wake-up call?
US bonds are a safe haven because the world’s oil supply is locked up by US warships.
engineer_22··on US debt has hit $40tn - Will that be a wake-up call?
The other half of the equation is what the government is spending the borrowed money on. The effect on the real economy is significant and pertinent to market performance of sectors.
engineer_22··on US debt has hit $40tn - Will that be a wake-up call?
Yeah MMT is basically beads and blankets for the island of manhattan.
engineer_22··on US debt has hit $40tn - Will that be a wake-up call?
Yes demographic shift and bubble economics, this much is true. But Japan is hampered by constitutional restraint of their armed forces, the United States economy (infamously) enjoys much broader support from intelligence and military. Japan also historically rejects mass immigration, which the United States has adopted as a means to replenish low skill workforce and 2nd generation child->skilled worker pipeline. If political power can successfully be wrested from the boomers, the USA can abandon their entitlements and rebound quickly. If boomers hang on to political power: a period of sticky inflation and slow growth.
engineer_22··on I spent twenty years becoming good at the wrong game
> Much of my research began with a large claim about society (e.g., "consumer culture constructs identities") and I then searched texts for language that could illustrate that claim. Because almost any passage could be interpreted that way through a sufficiently flexible framework (and enough imagination), it was difficult to say what evidence would prove the claim wrong.

Doesn’t sound like you’re doing science, to me.

In fact, this is the crux of the whole reproducibility crisis in social sciences, is it not?

engineer_22··on OpenLogi
You gotta get over it. Generative AI is here to stay. People will use computers differently now.

Were houses crafted better before dimensional lumber and power tools? Maybe - they were also more expensive. So the same with programs and website via AI.

engineer_22··on The brain may be about to have its Ozempic moment
looks like potential for abuse is low - people with normal orexin activity could even experience diminished capacity by these drugs
engineer_22··on How I use LLMs to learn complex topics
You didn’t read it but I should?

Hey @turzmo I found your 21 year old and I agree with you!

engineer_22··on How I use LLMs to learn complex topics
They released air tools but you’d rather use a hammer to drive nails. It reflects more on /you/ than on the technology.
engineer_22··on How I use LLMs to learn complex topics
LLM have only been useful for ~12 months (arguably <6 months). Too early to throw the baby out with the bathwater...
engineer_22··on How I use LLMs to learn complex topics
>There are many objections to methods of making learning "easier" and the invalidity of one does not imply the invalidity of all of them.

I am pointing out a pattern of technological hubris stretching thousands of years.

>An entire generation of students seems to have atrophied their critical thinking skills this way. Talk to 21-year-olds today and you'll see what I mean.

Ah, yes, the old "kids these days" routine... quite fond of it myself sometimes. But I find myself benefitted when I take care to learn from the young.

engineer_22··on How I use LLMs to learn complex topics
Your argument sound remarkably familiar. Humor me:

"For this invention will produce forgetfulness in the minds of those who learn to use it, because they will not practice their memory.“

-Socrates, on writing. From Phaedrus

Secondary source: https://www.historyofinformation.com/detail.php?id=3439

engineer_22··on Saying No
Remember that this is an abbreviated version of real events. It appears the differences were irreconcilable, which is OK, ending this relationship creates room for new opportunities.
engineer_22··on Saying No
No is a perfectly reasonable starting point for a negotiation.
engineer_22··on An all-sky map of half a million supermassive black holes
Love how you throw in RFK Jr. His muscular tone is certainly impressive!
engineer_22··on Degrees of Wealth
I’ll simplify a lot here but here’s my understanding of wealth.

Wealth has lots of flavors but usually we mean material wealth.

Material wealth is the items and properties that people covet. And people figured out they can store wealth with money and everyone agreed that money is a fair way to store wealth and use it to transfer ownership of the items and properties people covet. (In hindsight maybe not wisest of all decisions but open for debate).

Material wealth is not permanent. It is consumed. By typing on my iPhone, using it daily, it’s degrading, eventually it’ll not be functional and it’ll be harder to get money in exchange for it. Real estate appreciates in monetary value but that’s an effect of the money system not a natural state of things, real estate actually degrades without real work put in to keep it up, consuming value. Food and fuel are easy to see as consumables, one-time use only.

Calvinists are historically frugal, their theology emphasizes thrift and industry, basically the backbone of capital accumulation - create wealth, but don’t consume it, invest the wealth to create more wealth. This is the bedrock of “capitalism” (capitalism in modern and postmodern age has taken a new meaning, but originally it meant ~using capital to create wealth).

China famously imposed (and still does) very strict discipline on consumption, and they used their excess capital to reinvest for industrialization.

Western economies imposed consumption limits in the continental wars, which enabled a huge surplus of wealth in USA following WW2 because the population was used to the discipline.

Churches (Vatican) accumulate treasures by disciplining their flocks to tithe. Churches in the east were looted by the Bolsheviks to finance their revolution, the eastern church had huge reserves of wealth that was consumed by the revolution. Eventually they had trouble balancing their economy and the holodomor took hold in the wheat belt - the wealth was exhausted.

The soviets eventually established absolute control, disciplined their populations and went on a long run of impressive industrialization and growth - but it eventually toppled due to imbalances in production and consumption, people don’t thrive under strictest disciplines, they grew tired and the economy got sick.

Today, the highly developed nations in the west are wrestling with questions of discipline. Wealth inequality its called. There’s an upwelling of popular sentiment that people want to consume more, and it’s hard not to sympathize with that, Id love to live like the elites do. But from my perspective there’s not much consideration to how much consumption is sustainable or desirable.

The key question from my view is what end does material consumption serve?

Is it for pleasure’s sake alone? Or is it to unlock more human talent? Is it converted to unleash other flavors of wealth such as spiritual fulfillment, thriving families, arts, wisdom? How can a material value be placed on these things in balance with real material constraints? More questions than answers, and that’s sort of the crux of the eternal argument.

Obviously things have gone well in the west, most people live lives of extreme wealth compared to their great-grandparents. Some of that has to do with warfare, some with luck, some with thrift and industry. Maybe that’s about to change, or maybe not. I for one am happy to work harder than most to create wealth, I find work fulfilling, but I am also well compensated for my labor and so I consume more than most people too… the balance happens at the micro-level and the macro.

engineer_22··on US beef prices have soared but farmers aren't making more money
they could have an allergic reaction to red meat
engineer_22··on Degrees of Wealth
Wealth != power

But you hit on an important point that wealth cannot accumulate unless consumption is disciplined. Sometimes discipline is self-imposed (e.g. calvinists), other times by the organizing authority (e.g. state, church).

In the 2nd type, authority as the source of discipline, there’s debate on the right balance of disciplining the elite classes vs the under classes. This debate will never cease, as long as there are human beings consuming wealth.

engineer_22··on LLMs reward expertise
These would have been good hires before AI but now they struggle?
engineer_22··on The iPhone Upgrade Program is being replaced by Apple Upgrade
Are there any “gotchas” of leasing vs owning the device? Do your rights to the data change? Does your responsibility to maintain the fit and function of the device change? How does lease vs buy benefit the consumer?
engineer_22··on Apple Will 'Watch Everything Burn' When the AI Bubble Bursts
I just switched to iPhone and I have to say the UI is so bad. It will be my last.
engineer_22··on Should you wash your solar panels?
I agree. Doesn't matter what you sell, you will get a higher price if it is cleaned and tidy when presented to the market - because the kinds of people who pay higher prices are looking for clean and tidy things.
engineer_22··on Google’s ATLAS is a look at how people are using AI
> Of course you should trust a human if that is their job

I’m telling you, in industries dealing with high energy, they DO NOT trust people just because it’s their job. THEY CHECK. Just like people should CHECK the LLM. I think we agree that LLM cannot be trusted. But where we don’t agree is “trust the experts because they’re humans” - that’s not an argument it’s a troll.

> gas engineers and electricians do safety critical work every day without supervision

This simply isn’t true. Electricians work is inspected before being placed into service. Engineers work is reviewed internally and permitted externally before going to construction.

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