I think this is mostly true, except I imagine OpenAI has a more defensible head start due to all the user data they've collected from people's queries. If they can maintain their lead in model quality (which is definitely possible - the engineering task of training the best and largest LLMs is not for the faint of heart) and remain the "best" general use chatbot, I could definitely see them build an insurmountable lead with all of their user data.