116 karma · joined March 7, 2022
President Volodymyr Zelensky said he is no longer pressing for Nato membership for Ukraine, a delicate issue that was one of Russia's stated reasons for invading its pro-Western neighbour.Neither could the US.
Another factor here is that Ukraine isn't Afghanistan or Vietnam where natural barriers offer chance for insurgency to hide out, regroup.
Russia here can absolutely level cities and buildings and it is impossible to construct underground tunnels in flat lands known for its ability to soak up water (the tunnels would not be structurally safe), and it is far too late now in this stage of the war.
An incompetent large army vs a competent large army makes little difference when the fighting environment is against the defenders (no mountains or jungles to hide out in).
The best chance at insurgency would be to start digging but again the soil in Ukraine makes this a challenge, my prediction is that we could see something similar to what Hamas is doing in Palestine in the form of human shields, swaying public media through casualties, urban warfare at best but unlike IDF which does to a certain degree exercise in minimization of collateral damage (ex. calling occupants in the apartment building to evacuate before bombing Hamas launching rockets) where as Putin/RF has zero qualms about collateral damage.
The Western sanctions have only esclated tensions, have emboldened Putin even more, as they've given him nothing to lose. When you corner a wild animal like Putin you will get bitten.
There's just no way out for him except to escalate from what I can see since Ukraine has rejected giving up DNR/LNR/Crimea. Neither side is willing to budge so this will simply continue to lead to human suffering on both sides.
He's already announced he is willing to use nukes if threatened and NATO will not respond unless multiple re-entry vehicles carrying nukes rain on their cities. He could do a lot here by using small scale nukes that don't create huge fallouts even.
If you were Putin, does it not make sense that his least trusted, potentially disloyal officers, generals would be on the frontlines and hope they don't come back?
it really made me feel how out of control the world really is and as Charlie Munger said it the best, it is envy that drives capitalism.
We are starting to see some of this right now (and I'm not 100% certain) but for instance the alleged Azov battalion operating near DNR/LNR area is said to be not allowing citizens to leave the city. There are footages going around them turning (you can tell from the patches they wear) citizens away from checkpoints as they try to leave.
Like Hamas in Palestine who regularly launch rockets at Israel from top of apartment buildings, it's only a matter of time before insurgency turns to this tactic as they are determined to keep fighting.
in Afghanistan the Taliban could hide out in network of caves and there is just no flatten mountains, the Vietcongs could utilize underground networks and dense forests to operate.
One hope for Ukraine is urban warfare, Putin launched two miserable wars against Chechnya and they were decimated from insurgents hiding out in various apartment buildings, it is likely what is stalling the advance in Kyiv.
Yet what the fixation on Kyiv is doing is it's pulling resources away from the south and Donentsk/Lukansk area where the Ukraine army is in real danger of being completely surrounded.
There is heavy propaganda and disinformation from both Russia and Ukraine but what we've done in the West is effectively ban impartiality. Never before have we seen this level of zealous emotions since WW2.
@JominiW on twitter does a very good explanation of various political and military objectives and the strategic movement of the Russian forces and he's repeatedly called out the dangers of believing the enemy is a paper tiger.
We've seen all sorts of incompetence from the Russian side and Ukrainian forces have done a good job of defending Kyiv but we forget that Ukraine is not just Kyiv, it is slowly being swallowed up from all directions.
This is called target fixation and it's going to shock a lot of people who only follows one side. Best thing to do in an unpredictable and volatile situation is to not fixate on one view.
We will shortly know in the coming weeks what will happen, if Putin makes significant grounds, he has more chips to gamble/make demands. If Putin fails here, he has no choice to escalate in ways that was previously thought unimaginable.
It doesn't help that US/NATO alliance is adamant on not escalating to WW3 yet they sanction every Russian, despite their objections to war and Putin, in some extremely liberal naivete that the Russians will rise up against an authoritarian government who is ready to use small scale nukes if need be.
As you've said luck is a very very important factor. As you get lucky, you tend to continue getting lucky because the more chips (capital) the cost of failure or unlucky runs is a lot lower than somebody about to be knocked out of the tournament.
Playing tight (risk averse) or loose (risk tolerant) or mania (risk indifferent) can yield very different outcomes and often professionals adjust their appetite for risk throughout the tournament.
Similarily, yes Steve Jobs got lucky and because he kept getting lucky he was in a position to make other bets without really suffering vs someone who bootstraps their business and exposed to the fluctuations of the market is going to have a tough time.
Nassim Taleb explains this better but to me the biggest shock when I started playing poker was, how much of an impact it's made no my perception of randomness and risk.
In large doses, it can bring about negative effects especially in people with ADD but the bad parts are almost always gone after cessation.
I don't think it
It's that when you are in your teens and you start smoking marijuana, the risk is big but I see many grey markets happy to sell you marijuana to people still going to high school.
I find both sides obnoxious, the Singaporeanesque fear mongering about "permanent damages" based on curated and manipulated data and the Western panacea attitude that it be used for everything.
Trying to tie lead exposure to marijuana is just asinine.
A few summers ago I ingested a few grams, and the awful texture and immediate urge to vomit was suppressed, so i rapidly chewed and just swallowed. This is what followed: the usual anxiety ridden come up and your ego being destroyed, followed by a cathartic positivity, that appears to last the next few days.
Of course I'm hiding the bad parts: panic attacky omg what have i done followed by realization that the ego is not real (in very large doses I've experienced ego death and transcendental experience as if I could "see" for the first time, perceive reality as is without any bias, judgement or thought, VERY SCARY because it really feels like you are dead but actually your self separating from the ego, it is a mental creation and it's attachment that forms being the root of suffering.
I make this one key observation about that trip: I sat on the toilet for an hour just pooping until only clear mucus started coming out. This is my theory but we know that the gut has its own "brain" or biome that is said to influence our minds, and its this cleansing (I feel like I was literally pooping out depression) that is ever lasting.
It's the come up that makes it tough to enjoy psilocybin recreationally, in fact I've had scary trips that really make me put lot of thought into my surrounding (generally prefer being outdoors in the grass on a sunny day with meditation), and truth be told it's not like you do it once and your depression is cured, it took some experimenting.
Having said that I do not recommend the Terrence Mckenna's "5 grams or nah" shotgun approach, especially if you've never even consumed anything but alcohol.
DISCLAIMER: Please be careful and its best if you have someone nearby who is experienced but I did it alone. One realization that helped me with loneliness is that I realize I am never really alone because I felt closeness to earth.
This is a path that the demographic on HN might not be ready to accept but damn it feels good to not be on anti-depressants or smoking marijuana to cope. On THC, I felt like whenever I started toking again, it would start bringing back the old energy, it felt like it was undoing the impact of 4-HO-DMT which is said to be encouraging neurgenesis (which explains the reduction in anxiety, ocd and depression).
Can't have it all but one thing I feel like psilocybin isn't good at is helping with PTSD, I'm still awaiting trials for MDMA trials as I've heard good things about it (charite.de)
it's tough for me to summarize the whole experience but if you have any questions I'd be happy to answer, my only concern is that in very very rare cases you have stuff like ppl jumping off buildings but it seems to be cohabited by other issues, I am not an expert or qualified to speak on this matter, so again please have a sitter and do it in a safe place where it is impossible to harm yourself.
I am older now and I feel like I've experimented enough to call it quits but I am very thankful to the mushroom, earth, and other humans that have opened my other eye. It absolutely is beneficial to humanity to study this more and I am very excited to see more awareness in countries like Canada.
Start very small but make sure you take long break in between, there is a dosage guideline out there. I feel like I'm "getting too old for this" and I find myself increasingly preferring sober and feel like exercise is truly king.
wish more would be written like this