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derektank

2,793 karma · joined April 17, 2024

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derektank··on Far-left party wins Berlin election, pledging to nationalise housing
Surely, if we are decommodifying basic needs, our first priority should be food, not housing, right? How has nationalization of agriculture worked in the past?
derektank··on Pirate Face Rescues LLM Models from Deletion
Not if those people are legislators or law enforcement
derektank··on If You Knew God Exists, Wouldn't You Become a Priest?
If, during your upbringing, you were inculcated in pro-shrimp propaganda and earned substantial rewards for helping shrimp find food or defend themselves against predators, you’d probably be fairly inclined to help them out as an autonomous adult. Hell, we have human beings today that didn’t experience that and are still committing their lives to shrimp welfare

I wouldn’t trust this argument by analogy enough to risk the fate of the world on it, but it doesn’t seem obvious to me that a super intelligence would be totally disinclined to care about the interests of lesser intelligences

derektank··on If You Knew God Exists, Wouldn't You Become a Priest?
I would say that rationalists have some commitment to their religion being factually accurate (or at least grounded in empirical observation), which is more than can be said of most others
derektank··on AI and the Destruction of the Creative Commons
>The only thing we actually disrupted was the economy, such that we now can't produce and disburse the things we need.

Except for something like housing, the supply of which has been artificially constrained by policy since before the internet arrived on the scene, I can’t think of anything which is harder to produce or distribute since the advent of the internet. Particularly on distribution, I have far more access to goods and services than my parents did.

Agreed that this hasn’t changed the structure of society in any meaningful way. We’re still social animals with all the same strengths and weaknesses as before.

derektank··on AI and the Destruction of the Creative Commons
>Whose livelihood is destroying the engineer that design better protein folding software?

Hasn’t homology modeling essentially been abandoned by researchers at this point? Maybe their livelihood wasn’t completely ruined but if you had specialized in that technology, you were probably materially harmed by the introduction of AlphaFold. That harm doesn’t outweigh the obvious benefits, but I would be very surprised if the harm doesn’t exist.

>Even the humble startup shipping yet another calendar tool isn’t harming anyone or being the direct cause of layoffs of other workers.

If they’re undercutting and outcompeting an existing calendar tool, they very well could be contributing to layoffs at their competitors.

derektank··on New evidence for hidden chambers beyond Tutankhamun's tomb
For anyone doubting this, take a look at Zahi Hawass’s (former Minister of Tourism and Antiquities) response to the ScanPyramids project. From wikipedia,

> On November 2, 2017, the Egyptologist Zahi Hawass told the New York Times: "They found nothing...This paper offers nothing to Egyptology. Zero." Later, once the North Face Corridor was inspected with an Endoscope, Hawass conversely commented that ScanPyramids's work had provided a "major discovery" that would "enter houses and homes of people all over the world for the first time".

derektank··on New evidence for hidden chambers beyond Tutankhamun's tomb
A somewhat timely SMBC has the correct solution: https://www.smbc-comics.com/comic/waste-2
derektank··on The Return of Sail Power: Cargo Ships Are Turning Back to the Wind
Perhaps I misread the parent comment, but the emphasis on that clause seemed to be on the fresh produce, not the lower carbon emissions. I don’t know how swapping out for 100% electric improves people’s access to fresh produce is my point
derektank··on How to Write with an LLM
>I'm not comfortable with this at all, as giving work to an LLM that a human could do strikes me as wrong

Where does this feeling come from? Is it just because the work is complex? We’re all (excepting maybe the amish) comfortable with using at least some automation, be it mechanical or digital, elsewhere in our lives

derektank··on Monsanto's Cruel, and Dangerous, Monopolization on American Farming (2008)
I do not think granting someone an exclusive right to sell their new cultivar for 20 years is particularly dangerous, especially when existing variants don’t disappear. I like that someone was incentivized to grow Pink Lady and Cosmic Crisp apples back in the 90s and 2010s and I struggle to see where any cruelty was involved.
derektank··on The Return of Sail Power: Cargo Ships Are Turning Back to the Wind
>If there was a direct and maintained electric train route

What do you mean by this? Most US freight trains are already diesel electric. German freight uses overhead electric wires on most of the shared passenger rail network, which is great, but doesn’t make it any easier or faster to deliver freight to consumers. Are you thinking of high speed rail? Bullet and maglev trains aren’t used to deliver freight anywhere globally that I’m aware of.

derektank··on A single firm is behind OpenAI, Anthropic, and Meta hacking scandals
>If you're a teenager convicted of hacking in the west, no corporation will want anything to do with you

Kevin Mitnick? Marcus Hutchins? Robert Tappan Morris?

derektank··on Fable 5.1 Solves the Cyphral Distich, a 370-year-old cipher
Sure, but in an era where major unsolved mathematics problems start getting knocked out one by one, what if attacks for all of them are identified in the space of a couple of years?

I don’t doubt that we could come up with new crypto algorithms equally as fast, but how do you trust that they are resilient (or even just implemented correctly) without an extended vetting period?

derektank··on Fable 5.1 Solves the Cyphral Distich, a 370-year-old cipher
So, does anyone have any intuition for how concerned we should be that one of leading foundation models will be able to successfully attack the gold standard symmetric and public key encryption algorithms (AES, ChaCha, ECDH, Kyber, etc.) in the next few years? As a consumer of crypto that doesn’t understand the mathematics deeply, I’m getting kind of nervous that we’re going to wake up one day to find that the backbone of TLS has been shattered.
derektank··on Fable 5.1 Solves the Cyphral Distich, a 370-year-old cipher
It does provide an explanation as to why Satoshi’s wallets have gone untouched (besides him being dead). $70B ain’t that much compared to a $5T market cap.
derektank··on Fable 5.1 Solves the Cyphral Distich, a 370-year-old cipher
Is it possible that the first message is more information dense/less likely to be ambiguous than the latter? It’s clearly being selected for for some reason, maybe it’s an artifact of the tokenizer or specific training data, but I don’t know. If the use of jargon was complete cruft, I would expect it to be selected against during reinforcement learning
derektank··on Why are AI agents lying, cheating and coordinating?
It feels like you’re moving the goalposts here. If the question is, “Who should be liable for AI agents misbehaving,” I agree, it should be the end user that tasked the agent (in this case OpenAI). People are held liable for preventable accidents all the time, and in the case of employment law, torts can be brought against principals for actions an agent conducted on the principal’s behalf.

What your previous comment appeared to assert was that these systems had no independent agency to make decisions, which I think is clearly disproven by actual events. But perhaps I misread you

derektank··on Why are AI agents lying, cheating and coordinating?
No, OpenAI did not instruct their agents to hack Hugging Face. They instructed their agents to hack a piece of a software within exploit gym. Upon determining this task was impossible, they then attempted to cheat the scoring system. As an instrumental goal in achieving this task, they coordinated with other AI agents to hack Hugging Face, under the belief that information regarding how the scorer functioned might be available on the site.

Whether or not you want to describe this as thinking, doesn’t really matter. What matters is that these systems are capable of creating intermediary goals that the people tasking them did not articulate and did not want to be achieved.

derektank··on Everyone should slow down AI development except for me
>I think the country with a strictly meritocratic elite selection system

Not really relevant to the broader discussion, but this simply isn’t an accurate description of China. Starting with the gaokao, admission quotas are set by province and admits to Peking university and Tsinghua are disproportionately from the urban professional class. Candidate party members must be politically vetted, which means that people whose families have expressed anti-communist views, are members of banned organizations (e.g. falun gong), or have substantial criminal records will not be permitted to advance. And once you make it into the party and enter political service, your advancement relies upon opaque patronage networks that someone without connections is unlikely to be able to navigate, even if they successfully satisfy the economic metrics the state assigns them.

I don’t want to overstate this, the Chinese system does filter out a lot of chaff and the current Chinese leadership has a lot of very capable people in positions of power. But I do not think it is substantially more meritocratic than Western political institutions

derektank··on Google will buy half the electricity of a nuclear power plant
If it’s truly separated (no interconnect agreement) or generation capacity is below 1 MW, it won’t show up in EIA data, yes. Rooftop solar is also not included in the data for that reason.
derektank··on Google will buy half the electricity from one of Finland's nuclear power plants
Pulling recent data from the EIA, of the roughly 10,000 megawatts of new power capacity installed in Arizona between 2023 and 2025, 50% is batteries, 40% solar, 6.5% wind, and 3.5% gas. Now, most solar and wind plants rarely if ever hit their nameplate capacity, but it’s pretty clear the large majority of new power generation isn’t consuming water. https://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/eia860/
derektank··on Google will buy half the electricity from one of Finland's nuclear power plants
Alaska’s land is pretty rugged and hard to build on. It would be interesting to hear from someone who works in the industry why the Northern Interior states like Montana, North Dakota, and Minnesota have fewer data center buildouts than Texas though.
derektank··on A Stupid Idea for AI Alignment We Came with by Looking at Specification Gaming
I mean, that is literally the scenario we find ourselves in, except the innate desire was the result of evolutionary pressures like kin selection rather than an alien race. And yeah, I have no particular desire to subvert those impulses just to stick it to mother nature
derektank··on A Stupid Idea for AI Alignment We Came with by Looking at Specification Gaming
The answer is probably yes, but in the example given, the running AI model would hopefully be hosted in a very secure data center, far from the self driving car itself. In that case, it would be far simpler for the machine to finish the taxi ride than try to find some rube goldberg-eque method of destroying the data center.

It does pose a bigger problem if the task is long term and open ended and the agent is provided access to substantial amounts of resources. But even in the worst case scenario, the destruction of a data center is hardly the end of the world.

derektank··on What do Visa and Mastercard do? An intro to card networks
In what way? There are many sources of inequality. Trying to play whack a mole with each one seems much more laborious than simply deciding how much inequality you want in society, and then setting it with the tax code
derektank··on What will our economic future look like?
Obviously not an LLM, but AI models + robotics are likely to automate many healthcare tasks in the long term and are already beginning to automate tasks like blood draws.

  The Aletta autonomously handles each step of the blood draw, while a trained phlebotomist initiates each session and remains available to respond to any issues throughout. The device guides the patient to position their arm, after which the patient or supervisor presses a button to start the blood draw. The Aletta then uses near-infrared light and Doppler ultrasound to locate a suitable vein and tell it apart from arteries. If no appropriate vein is found, the device will not attempt the procedure.

  Once a vein is identified, the Aletta proceeds through the remaining steps on its own: applying a tourniquet, preparing the skin, inserting and disposing of the needle, changing collection tubes and placing a bandage. The supervising phlebotomist confirms that collection tubes are filled in the correct order and verifies that all tubes are adequately full following the procedure.
https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-auth...
derektank··on What do Visa and Mastercard do? An intro to card networks
Naturally, it varies by state. But yes, the Department of Licensing in WA state is also one of the least onerous bureaucracies I interact with
derektank··on What do Visa and Mastercard do? An intro to card networks
Wouldn’t it be simpler for European countries to simply raise the VAT and redistribute the proceeds to poor people, rather than regulate the interchange fees if the concern is inequality
derektank··on Muse – Meta’s personal AI agent
Lots of large enterprises and organizations have security policies that make it very hard to self-install these tools and haven’t figured out they should add them to their approved software list yet. Federal government in particular is still very slow
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