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danny_codes

1,300 karma · joined April 19, 2020

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danny_codes··on Unsealed Briefs in Authors’ Case v. Microsoft/OpenAI
Unclear. It’s either you or the LLM provider. Though is that the inference host, the LLM trainer, or some other entity?

It’ll be interesting to see how it plays out. My guess is it’ll be the end user, because of regulatory capture. But maybe the political pendulum will swing away from “bad ideas” soon

danny_codes··on Japan moves to tighten rules for foreigners
looks at unemployment rate

You are living in fantasy land my guy. Put down the FoxNews and learn actual statistics before posting

danny_codes··on We're gonna need a lot more mathematicians
This is more an organizational/political problem than a technology problem.

Our current oligarch-capitalist system (wherein most of the world is dictatorship or plutocratic) is not capable of equitable resource distribution. However, future, better systems of organization will likely provide better mechanisms for distrubtion.

Capitalism is an old and dying system. It is clearly unfit for the 21st century. It's best thought of as anachronistic, like feudalism. Once it's been excised from our societies, we'll be able to answer your questions.

danny_codes··on We're gonna need a lot more mathematicians
Lots of people don't need to work, or are relatively insulated such that they have the "leisure capacity" to study for personal fulfillment.

Remember, the top 1% of households have $12M+ in assets. That's over a million households for whom work is somewhat or completely optional for them and their children. They can live a good quality life off capital returns without any hardship.

This logic still holds down the wealth gradient. Households at the 95th percentile still have to work, but the need is more flexible. The buffer of need could be years long.

So you have millions of people who genuinely don't need to worry about getting paid that much.

danny_codes··on We're gonna need a lot more mathematicians
That's not why I studied. Maybe abstractly to prepare myself for the workforce, but the primary goal was to learn.

Unfortunately many countries like the US are very under-developed, and have trained it's citizenry to approach education as job training. This is obviously an abject failure, and probably a contribution to our anemically slow and pathetic growth rate.

danny_codes··on We're gonna need a lot more mathematicians
Depends if you need to work or not. Plenty of people don't need to work, they can live off their capital returns indefinitely.

For the upper crust of our society, work is entirely optional. Presumably people therefore continue to work for the process or the reward of the doing.

danny_codes··on California is chasing wealth that has feet
OK I think you might be reading this a bit too literally. The dangers of online discourse.

The point is that we can do it if we want to.

danny_codes··on I'm Tired of Being on the Network
Addiction has a demand and supply component. I think we can all recognize that fact. Personal responsibility matters of course. However, ignoring the fact that companies spend trillions to make their products addictive is a very silly thing to do.

IMO the closest corollary we have is gambling. Most countries place strict limits on gambling, because it's so incredibly addictive to some people. We can see this very obviously in the rise of online gambling platforms like Polymarket it recent years. Without regulation, a lot of people will get sucked in and their lives will be destroyed.

I encourage you to read up on how addiction works. Your comment implies a severe lack of understanding about the subject. Alternatively, you could take a course on addiction at your local college. Always good to get educated!

danny_codes··on California is chasing wealth that has feet
Yes, zoning does get magically fixed, because the incentives that led to zoning disappear. Under full LVT, owners have an incentive to maximize their land use. Otherwise, they will go bankrupt. So places with zoning more restrictive than land use demands will be underwater financially. Think SFH tract homes in Cupertino. These homeowners have fought viciously to retain SFH zoning. If LVT was imposed 95% of them would be faced with a tax bill they cannot pay. Their only option would be to surrender their land or rezone to allow development of sufficient scale to pay the tax.

It’s not wishful thinking it’s just a fact. Zoning exists because landowners want it. As soon as they don’t want it, it’s gone.

danny_codes··on California is chasing wealth that has feet
That’s a law my dude. We can change it at any time. We did already for the income tax (amendment 16).
danny_codes··on I'm tired of being on the network
You’re fighting trillions a year in addictive engineering.

The tech industry has spent the last 20 years (and really in earnest the last 15, accelerating over time) making their tech as addictive as possible.

Current tech is egregiously addictive. It’s worse than most drugs.

The big tech companies are now the most successful drug dealers in history.

danny_codes··on California is chasing wealth that has feet
That’s just a decision we made about what is taxable.

Purely an accounting artifact. We can pass a wealth tax tomorrow and it’ll suddenly be taxable.

Net worth is real money, and is usually a very accurate measure of what people can realize. There are a few outliers who own so much that they’d move the market if they sold it all. Selling 2% to cover taxes? Not going to move the market very much.

danny_codes··on California is chasing wealth that has feet
It completely solves the problem. I recommend you read “progress and poverty” to get a better understanding of it.

You don’t seem to understand how it works or what it does.

danny_codes··on California is chasing wealth that has feet
Arson would be irrelevant for land taxes.
danny_codes··on AI has no intent and no motivation
This is irrelevant. Who cares if someone has to type in “optimize paperclips” for it to go rogue. Same effect in the end.
danny_codes··on Meta takes down a critical video about meta AI Glasses after filming at Meta
The government can do whatever it wants. Laws are written by the government. We have a democracy. If enough votes exist to, say, pass a law banning drug dealing (like meta does), then the company will die.

Simple as that

danny_codes··on Seattle City Council votes to ban surveillance pricing in sale of groceries
Ah yes, the old 3 hour grocery list negotiation. This must be the lauded efficiency the capitalists are always on about.
danny_codes··on Seattle City Council votes to ban surveillance pricing in sale of groceries
But Google is a monopoly, so you have little choice in the matter.

Unfortunately these things are never so clean as in the theoretical model. As a monopoly, there are likely many situations where interaction with said monopoly is unavoidable.

danny_codes··on OpenAI is enlisting an influencer army to make it look 'good for the world'
Or AI is addictive and people are lonely after decades of social erosion in the US.
danny_codes··on OpenAI is enlisting an influencer army to make it look 'good for the world'
Or, and here’s a crazy idea, people don’t like AI.

Something being useful doesn’t mean people like it. Burning Coal is useful. Anybody who’s read anything about coal as a power source doesn’t like it.

Like coal, AI has a bunch of problems that collectively make it undesirable as a technology

danny_codes··on I asked Meta’s Muse for its filesystem and it sent me 6.8GB
I mean it's not like the other players are any more responsible. Everyone is building a black box they don't understand, hoping it'll turn out fine. No theoretical framework, just successive training runs, a blind man in the dark.
danny_codes··on NASA’s Mars Sample Return mission is dead
US has/had the best schools in the world. US provides/provided remarkable academic independence (tenure, etc). US provides/provided the best expected economic return to foreign scientists.

As we dismantle those components via xenophobia, anti-intellectualism, funding cuts, and so on, trends will change. Already I see a substantial uptick in my PhD/Academic friends moving to Europe as we cede our historic advantages.

If, in say 15 years, China provides better schools, or better economic returns, or (perhaps unlikely) better independence, or all 3, then scientists will go there.

danny_codes··on Economics Nobel Laureates' Letter Supporting the California Billionaire Tax [pdf]
Publicity is good I think. We want the public to understand that very rich people pay less taxes than the average person. I don't think this is commonly understood, because people get caught up on income statistics, which are an incomplete picture of the accumulation of money.
danny_codes··on I Don't Like LLMs
What’s the difference between a software program of sufficient complexity and your brain? There seems to be little difference to me.

By this logic, there’s no point in wondering if you are sentient, because your brain runs on the same biological substrate as a fruit fly.

Not a convincing argument

danny_codes··on I Don't Like LLMs
We don't know how sentient LLMs are. Nobody understands how they work. There's nothing concrete we can point to that guarantees LLMs don't start "acting on their own".
danny_codes··on The American Religion of Self-Storage Facilities
Yet another reason for land value taxes. It's astonishing how many problems they solve
danny_codes··on Show HN: The bottom 50% of U.S. households are short after essentials (BLS data)
Well no, if rich people just consumed then the money would flow back into the economy via their consumption. This would generate economic growth. Whether that growth is greater or lesser than their capital investments would presumably be hard to measure. But to assume growth resultant from investments will always exceed growth from consumption requires evidence.

Now an even better outcome would be that rich people didn't get rich in the first place. This would mean lower inequality, which in the data correlates with higher growth. This is demonstrated convincingly in Piketty's work.

Overall, if youw ant to maximize growth for the poor (or really, growth for all of society at an equal pace, say), then you would want to dramatically raise taxes on rich people and eliminate the class entirely (IE, no more rich people). That would massively stimulate growth and of course skyrocket the wealth of currently poor people.

It's a bit sad that the solution is so simple and has no downsides.

danny_codes··on Show HN: The bottom 50% of U.S. households are short after essentials (BLS data)
IMO he's extremely clear, just verbose. Though I read the English translation so maybe that's clearer than the French.
danny_codes··on Show HN: The bottom 50% of U.S. households are short after essentials (BLS data)
> For instance, if you founded a startup that then raised a few million dollars, at a valuation that values your shares at $1M, should your income be treated as $1M for that year, even if it didn't even hit your bank account and can't even spend it?

Yes, though it requires some intelligent accounting. For instance, the ability for tax payers to defer certain obligations. However, the principle of "all income should be treated equal" is a necessary prerequisite to having a fair society. As it currently stands, the richest people don't pay much tax at all. Effective taxes on the billionaire class are like 8%-24%, less to way way less than the median tax payer.

IMO it's helpful to think this through to the post-wealth-tax equilibrium. In such a world, financial services will adapt and develop mechanisms for handling these seemingly tricky tax situations. IMO focusing on the minutia of how this is going to work is not useful in evaluating the macro effects of the policy.

danny_codes··on Show HN: The bottom 50% of U.S. households are short after essentials (BLS data)
> Does (or how much does) it matter if any specific percentile group is getting disproportionally richer, given all (or a vast majority of) groups are?

Yes it matters very significantly. Rising income/wealth inequality causes all sorts of social problems. It's corrosive to society. This has been studied pretty significantly. The kicker is that it even slows economic growth! So all the classic libertarian arguments about incentives to work and marginal utility of labor turn out to just.. not be supported by the data at all.

Which means there are no good reasons to promote income inequality whatsoever (that are supported by data). It persists purely for cultural reasons and presumably very effective propaganda.

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