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dandelany

5,264 karma · joined July 17, 2008

developer at NASA/JPL, formerly Spotify, Seed Scientific, Enigma, Turntable.FM. http://www.cognitiveharmony.net
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dandelany··on Drug cartel assassinates its enemies with bomb-toting drones
Forget visual - DIY (semi-)autonomous drones are doable today and could be pretty scary too. 4G may not be good enough for a human pilot flying FPV but it’s likely more than enough for a drone with GPS running Ardupilot to hone in on a target tagged with a planted transmitter or bugged phone.
dandelany··on TikTok's new CEO says company will reveal how its algorithms work
"I personally have nothing to hide so I don't have a problem with intrusive surveillance" is not a nuclear or even hot take, in fact it's about the lukewarmest take I can think of.
dandelany··on Fake SpaceX YouTube channel with 36k live viewers scams people out of money
Seems like it's exploiting a hole in YT's reporting process. I stumbled on a few of these streams last week and tried to report the accounts for "impersonating". However, on the reporting page, you're asked to specify which of the users' videos or comments are violating the rules, but you're not given any option to specify a live stream video. Since the accounts did not post any other videos or comments, there was no content for me to tag.

I submitted the reports anyway and, shortly thereafter, got an email from Youtube telling me "Unfortunately the information you provided in your report to YouTube does not meet our impersonation reporting guidelines." Seems they automatically ignore any reports without tagged videos/comments.

dandelany··on Snowpack 2.0
It's only misleading if you take it out of context and examine that one sentence without reading the rest of the article. It's perfectly clear what they mean in the post (to me, at least).
dandelany··on Snowpack 2.0
Surely that depends on what you call `n`, they are using `n` to refer to the number of files in the project.

I would agree that the term is a bit of "shorthand" that doesn't perfectly map to the idea of big-O complexity - for exactly the reason you mention, build time still depends on the size of the file. But for me, it was shorthand that helped me understand the idea. They had two other options on how to write this - either leave out the big-O stuff entirely, or explain it more deeply eg. "most bundlers are O(lmn) where l is the number of files, m is the number of files changed, n is the number of JS tokens per file" or something. Both of these options may have been more "technically correct" but would've taken me longer to grok the idea than the way they have it written. Maybe they should just have a footnote for the pedants explaining that O(1) is more of an idiom than a technical claim in this case :P

dandelany··on Snowpack 2.0
I know you're being facetious, but as someone who used to follow "the new hotness" JS libraries constantly coming out, I'd advise caution with this way of thinking. There is a tendency for developers to see every new library/framework/tool as "the new way" which obsoletes the old - often because the new tool advertises itself based on distinctions/improvements made over existing libraries.

Browserify, Webpack, Parcel, Rollup, Vite, Snowpack: people use all of these for different reasons & they all have their own advantages & drawbacks. It often doesn't make sense to abandon a stable solution for one which promises speed/magical features but may be full of bugs/untested (not saying this is true of Snowpack, but you can't just trust the claimed feature list as an accurate representation of the tool).

I mention this simply because I've been in so many situations where a dev casually denigrates someone else's work because it was built using an "old" solution, without engaging with the core functionality of the code. Like "oh, they're using Webpack, they must not have heard of Rollup." It's good to be re-evaluate the tools you use from time to time, but don't let the "new hotness" make you think the old tried-and-true ways are any less valid - many yaks have been shaved and bikes shedded this way.

dandelany··on Snowpack 2.0
Maybe I'm misunderstanding, but it seems clear to me: Other bundlers = change one file, `n` files are rebuilt/bundled. Snowpack = change one file, only that one file is rebuilt. Building "from scratch" will necessarily be O(n), but incremental rebuilds can be O(1), no?
dandelany··on Hardware Microphone Disconnect in Mac and iPad
You can get SMD 0603 LEDs that use ~1mA of power for a few pennies in bulk. Peanuts compared to the power usage and price of the rest of the phone.
dandelany··on H5N1 (2013)
I suspect the “perfect virus” adaptively speaking isn’t deadly at all - burning down a home your future ancestors could live in doesn’t seem like a good strategy.
dandelany··on Initial findings of artificial impact on asteroid Ryugu
Explosively >:)

https://www.lpi.usra.edu/meetings/lpsc2013/pdf/1904.pdf

dandelany··on Tesla appears to defy Bay Area shutdown, plans to operate Fremont factory
This. I used to be a big fan, but this fact has become transparently obvious in the past few years and makes it really hard to like the guy.

Now I'm just waiting for his big announcement that he's putting together a crack team to develop a COVID-19 cure/vaccine, at which he'll throw a few million dollars and achieve nothing other than to stoke his ego and reputation. I hope I'm wrong.

dandelany··on SpaceX will now let you book a rocket launch online starting at $1M
Not without the ground pushing back against them, they wouldn't. Turn off the engines and the passengers feel weightless (because both vehicle and pax are accelerating earthward at 1G); therefore turn them back on @3.5G and they'll feel 3.5G, no?
dandelany··on Why are some things darker when wet?
The point is, if A) photons carry no individual identity, and B) the interaction happens instantaneously, then there is no meaningful difference between saying "the photon bounced off like a ball" and "the photon was absorbed and a new one was instantly re-emitted". It's literally a distinction without a difference.

As humans living in the classical world, we hear that and think "oh, that just means we don't know what's really going on, it either bounces or re-emits, it just looks the same to us." But no - reality is just an interaction of quantum fields and we're putting these human stories on top of it. It's like debating whether or not submarines swim.

dandelany··on Second known interstellar visitor after Oumuamua
Let's back-of-the-envelope this a bit... Let's say that there are 10 big interstellar rocks with a volume of 1 km^3 each that are currently within 30 au of the sun (roughly Neptune's orbit). If we assume this is a good estimate of nearby galactic space, then if you chose a random 1km^3 "voxel" in our neighborhood of the galaxy, the odds that it would contain a 1km interstellar asteroid would be roughly (10 * 1km^3) / ((4/3) * pi * 30^3 au^3) ~= 3 in 10^29.

Now imagine a spaceship that travels 100 light years. It's going to pass through roughly 10^15 1km "voxels" on its journey, which means the chances of it hitting one of those 1km rocks is ~(10^15/10^29) or 1 in 100 trillion. Space is biiiig.

The real danger, though, is the smaller stuff. It's hard to know the distribution of interstellar dust size, but there are a LOT more small things than big things, and it only takes a grain of sand at relativistic speeds to cause a really bad day. If sand-sized rocks turn out to be 100 trillion times more common than these big ones, well, that's going to be a problem...

dandelany··on IAU Statement on Satellite Constellations
It does not have to be an innate human right to be something we find valuable & worth protecting. The argument is that astronomy benefits society & that's worth fighting for - no need to make it more complicated than that. And your second paragraph is simple whataboutism - the fact that pollution occurs despite us wishing it doesn't has no bearing on the question of radio astronomy vs. internet satellites.
dandelany··on Cameras Could Replace Car Mirrors?
This. A “transparent” A-pillar (the bit separating your windshield from driver’s side window) would be a good start, and if it worked well, it’s a feature I’d pay extra for.
dandelany··on Misinterpreting hurricane forecasts
This one? https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/08/27/us/hurricane-...

This is not the same cone map, the shaded area represents "50 percent or higher chance of experiencing wind speeds of at least 39 miles per hour" - ie. a simplified version of the map you recommend.

dandelany··on Burgundy wine investors have beaten the stock market
Collector's items are like companies... Many of them beat the market for many years, until, one day, they don't!
dandelany··on America has no use for hides, so leather prices plunge
I hear this all the time, and I'm sure it's true in some product categories, but it has not been my experience at all, at least not lately. Go search "full grain leather belt" on Etsy, do the tiniest bit of research on the sellers on the first-page of results, and tell me I'm wrong...
dandelany··on Scientists stunned by ‘city-killer’ asteroid that just missed Earth
The problem with this idea is that it rests on two incorrect assumptions - that there is some governing body that would be able to prevent the release of such information, and that we would immediately know upon detection that the asteroid was on a collision course.

In fact, in this case, the asteroid was detected independently by the SONEAR survey in Brazil and the ASAS-SN telescope network run by Ohio State University. Neither of these would fall under the "jurisdiction" of NASA or any governmental organization that would effectively be able to prevent them from talking about it. ASAS-SN tweeted the discovery, and I'm quite sure they didn't have to ask anyone permission to do so.

Secondly, the first few observations of a newly-discovered near-Earth object are generally not enough information to calculate the object's orbit accurately enough to know if it will hit Earth or not. So what do scientists do when they discover one? They immediately report it to the IAU and get the word out to as many other astronomers as possible, in order to obtain more observations & accurately determine the orbit.

As a result, it's hard to imagine how such a discovery could be kept secret.

dandelany··on Scientists stunned by ‘city-killer’ asteroid that just missed Earth
Eh maybe. It strains plausibility. We can't even accurately predict where deorbiting satellites will end up... It's pretty hard to imagine a nudge with the required delta-V and accuracy to hit a specific nation. Too far away and you get too much uncertainty, too close and you don't have enough dV for the push. Even if it could be done with today's technology, the potential for error is high, and if you screw up, you've accidentally started another war or "bombed" your own country. Can't imagine that a military with the requisite technology to pull this off wouldn't be able to think of a less-risky way to obliterate their enemy.
dandelany··on Neil Armstrong’s Death, and a Stormy, Secret $6M Settlement
Based on the details in both articles, this seems like a mischaracterization. The issue is not the fact that he died after an inherently risky operation - it's that the doctors (allegedly) made mistakes afterward that unnecessarily increased the risk and potentially cost him his life.

"Do patients always die if wire removal causes bleeding? No — it is very rare, surgeons said. Patients should be rushed to the operating room ... But Mr. Armstrong was taken to a cardiac catheterization lab first, before he went to surgery. The cath lab, Dr. Haft said, 'is not the solution.' ... By the time Mr. Armstrong got to the operating room, his heart had stopped and he had brain damage from a lack of blood to his brain. He died without regaining consciousness."

"The expert reviews focus on the hospital’s decision to bring Mr. Armstrong to a catheterization lab rather than directly to an operating room when he began to experience complications. 'The decision to go to the cath lab was THE major error,' Dr. Joseph Bavaria, a vice-chair of cardiothoracic surgery at University of Pennsylvania wrote in a review conducted at the request of the Armstrong family."

dandelany··on Can We Catch the Next ‘Oumuamua?
I've been following the papers a bit, but I'm also not an expert in the field, so I likewise have a hard time assessing the plausibility of outgassing given the lack of an observed coma. I can't find a reference, but I seem to recall reading that there are still possible (though implausible) scenarios (depending on grain size & albedo & lots of other variables) where outgassing could be significant enough to produce the observed "thrust" but not enough to be visible in our scopes. Of course it could also be a combination of outgassing and solar radiation.

I will say though that physics people I've spoken to about it are much more skeptical of the solar radiation hypothesis, simply because radiation pressure is so weak. I'd be surprised if it were a thin slate of rock as the dimensions are so outlandish compared to anything we've ever observed, plus I would think be there might be "structural integrity" problems with an asteroidal body that thin and sheetlike. The "solar sail" calculations done by the folks linked to above may also assume/require that the sail "turns" itself somehow to constantly face the sun, since the observed acceleration vector was entirely pointed radially away from the sun.

I have heard one radiation pressure idea that I liked, though, which is the "dust bunny hypothesis". If 'Oumuamua were, instead of a solid body, more like a very loose, fluffy agglomeration of dust, it might just have enough surface area for us to see it (and to be hit by enough sunlight to get a push), while also having a low enough mass to produce the observed acceleration. IIRC this may have other problems, though, eg. requiring the dust to be super-high albedo for it to be visible. Seems like there aren't any "nice" answers left, so sifting through the "least improbables" is pretty difficult :)

dandelany··on Can We Catch the Next ‘Oumuamua?
Not quite - this is only true if you discount the outgassing hypothesis entirely & assume that all of the acceleration is from solar radiation pressure. There is at least one good recent paper strongly advocating for outgassing as a more realistic (if less exciting) explanation: https://www.darrylseligman.com/oumuamua https://arxiv.org/abs/1903.04723
dandelany··on Nassim Talebs case against Nate Silver is bad math
Maybe this was true of past elections, but their 2018 house forecast had a “how this forecast has changed” section that showed their historical predictions throughout election season. It’s still visible here: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-f...
dandelany··on Income Inequality Comes Roaring Back into the News
Despite the annoying and off-topic jabs about Russia and socialism, this article makes a good point about the problems with income inequality statistics. Does anyone know of a good source for reading more about this, preferably with more data and less politics?
dandelany··on Curiosity rover gives Nasa a scare, needed a reset
Yes - several, at varying degrees of fidelity, the highest of which is an exact replica rover named MAGGIE that lives in the garage next to the JPL “Mars Yard”.
dandelany··on Butterflow: motion interpolated videos from the command line
They are artifacts in the data - the different color channels that make up the image are captured at different times, so if there is any movement of the satellite between exposures, or software glitches that only affect one channel, they show up as bleeding colors in the final merged image.
dandelany··on Butterflow: motion interpolated videos from the command line
Hey cool, that’s my project! Thanks for the shoutout :) happy to answer questions if you’ve got any.

BTW, here's my favorite video - a compilation of the best results with some music: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1lPsA8J3U0Q

dandelany··on New Horizons’ first hi-res imagery of Ultima Thule
Tidal forces are one way - either between the two binary components, or from a close encounter with a third, larger body.

Another is the "YORP Effect". Sunlight falling on an asteroid produces a slight thermal radiation pressure (push). If, due to asymmetries in asteroid shape/albedo, the net radiation pressure force is not aligned with the asteroid's center of mass, it will produce a torquing force which will cause the asteroid to spin faster (or slower) over time. Applying the idea of YORP Effect to binary asteroids yields the "BYORP [Binary YORP] Effect", by which the orbital dynamics of the binary system are modified by this asymmetric radiation pressure over time, in a way that either pushes them together into a contact binary or apart into two unbound asteroids.

It's even hypothesized that some asteroids may be in a binary/contact-binary cycle on long timescales! There are solutions to the above in which the BYORP effect causes a loss of angular momentum in a binary pair, causing them to merge into a contact binary - but the contact binary may settle into a state where the YORP Effect actually causes the newly merged asteroid to spin faster, eventually flinging them apart due to centripetal forces... back into a binary state where the BYORP Effect may again cause them to merge someday.

Recommended reading: https://arxiv.org/abs/1010.2676

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