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cwmma

1,957 karma · joined December 30, 2012

[ my public key: https://keybase.io/calvinmetcalf; my proof: https://keybase.io/calvinmetcalf/sigs/hSxsMlXz9xBucNTKe5tE8emSiSLmAVZPmXC-K5Hq2-A ]
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cwmma··on The government ate my name
Reading this, it seems like the naturalization process which he changed his name during, doesn't really signal that there was a change of names.

Like normally if you changed your name (in America) you'd have a wedding certificate or a document from the court that you could use to show continuity but instead you're just allowed to put whatever you want on the citizenship form?

cwmma··on Subway Builder: A realistic subway simulation game
Under Eng it has apparently turned around in the last year or so.
cwmma··on Ford CEO on his ‘epiphany’ after talking to factory workers in 2023
A better thing to say, is that there are no long term labor shortages, in the short term you can have booms where there aren't enough people to fill the jobs but in your example the shortage would last at most 5 years but you'd also have things like better assistance or automation so one person may be able to fill more then one of those positions, you'd probably also have people that could come out of retirement for enough money, or people in related fields that could train in less then 5 years. For enough money on the table you'd probably have people trying to figure out if you can train somebody in less then 5 years. This is also the issue that HB1 visas are intended to solve.

If enough money is on the table people can skill up fast.

cwmma··on John Jumper: AI is revolutionizing scientific discovery [video]
The architecture of the current models where learning is a separate and very expensive process make runaway self improvement seem like something that will require a bunch of breakthroughs in order to happen.
cwmma··on US cities pay too much for buses
< This is kind of absurd, I have been on busses all over the country, a metro bus, is a metro bus. There are not really differences based on topography or climate.

Off the top of my head, road salt, used in the northern areas of America to melt snow can cause corrosion of metal pieces on the underside of the bus. So Chicago or Boston might need to take that into account but Miami probably doesn't.

cwmma··on Zip Code Map of the United States
There are multiple zip codes in my state (Massachusetts) that cover multiple towns some examples include 01002 which is Pelham and much of Amherst, 01027 which is both Easthampton and Westhampton (different towns) etc.
cwmma··on Why Everybody Is Losing Money On AI
yes but due to reasoning models the same query uses VASTLY more tokens today then a couple years ago
cwmma··on Why Everybody Is Losing Money On AI
He isn't saying they won't ever come down, he's saying they will not be coming down any time soon due to structural factors he discusses in the article.
cwmma··on Calling your boss a dickhead is not a sackable offence, UK tribunal rules
That's not a choice by the Guardian, that's the regular normal way of saying fireable in British English
cwmma··on Untangling the myths and mysteries of Dvorak and QWERTY (2023)
There is actually a really good paper [1] that tracks the origin of the QWERTY keyboard and the specific incremental changes that bring it from mostly alphabetical to QWERTY.

1. https://repository.kulib.kyoto-u.ac.jp/server/api/core/bitst...

cwmma··on The staff ate it later
I wonder if this is why they tend to have plastic food displays at restaurant

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Food_model

cwmma··on The day Return became Enter (2023)
Tangentially related, but there is great paper tracking how the layout of the qwerty keyboard came to be, tracing the slow evolution of it from a two row keyboard with a-m on the top row and z-n on the bottom to what we have today.

https://repository.kulib.kyoto-u.ac.jp/server/api/core/bitst...

cwmma··on The Last Vestal Virgin and the Fall of Rome
A much better date for the fall of Rome the city would probably be 395 when it stopped being the capital and pretty much stopped having any importance.

At this point the empire had outgrown the city to such an extent it managed to last a millennium after losing the city until 1453.

cwmma··on Why haven't quantum computers factored 21 yet?
I believe you are thinking of "Supersingular isogeny Diffie–Hellman key exchange" or SIKE which is a post quantum encryption algorithm that was spectacularly broken a couple years ago. The math involves elliptical curves but it's different from the elliptical curve cryptography used in your browser.
cwmma··on “This telegram must be closely paraphrased before being communicated to anyone”
For people interested in these kinds of things, there is a very interesting military manual on the internet archives which goes though all the various pre computer pen and paper ciphers and how to crack them.

1. https://archive.org/details/Fm3440.2BasicCryptAnalysis/mode/...

cwmma··on One universal antiviral to rule them all?
Probably, currently it's just 15 people that have it, but if you started giving it to more people there would be incredible advantages to any virus that could adapt and viruses mutate fast.
cwmma··on Tiny microbe challenges the definition of cellular life
how does it exclude fire, something well known for making more of itself (which seems to be the main criteria in Autopoiesis)
cwmma··on Tiny microbe challenges the definition of cellular life
ok so we knew about bacteria, tiny cells that don't have a nucleus, responsible for lots of disease. Bacteria do not look like the bigger cells that have a nucleus, they noticeable differences in how they work. Those big cells do have mitochondria in them which very much do look like bacteria that started living in those other cells.

Later on archaea were discovered they are the size of bacteria but the look like the bigger cells in how some of the key things in side of them work. Archaea don't cause any known diseases so that's one of the reasons it took so long to find them, but we can now find them all over the place by their DNA and it's now pretty clear that the ancestor of all big celled (and multi cellular life) was an archaea and they've even found the group of archaea that multi cellular life evolved out of.

cwmma··on US influencer stranded in Antarctica after landing plane without permission
You're over thinking this, their plan is to not be caught.
cwmma··on A ChatGPT Pro subscription costs 38.6 months of income in low-income countries
This is a real problem but I think the author has it backwards.

As LLM subscriptions become more expensive simply hiring folks from low income countries becomes a more cost effective solution.

cwmma··on The anti-abundance critique on housing is wrong
Yeah this article treats it like an either/or situation where monopoly's somehow make it so regulations aren't the issue instead of what most of the monopoly takes say which is that monopoly builders make the situation worse and combine with the other problems.
cwmma··on A short post on short trains
probably safety issues are a factor, it would be hard to get every one off if something happened at a station. But also it probably wouldn't get you much benefit over having two trains. The main advantage would be the back half would theoretically be able to load unload a little faster then if it was a second train waiting to come into the station, but with the downside that now the front half of the train needs to wait for the back half to unload and load before it can go on it's way
cwmma··on The Hater's Guide to the AI Bubble
A while back I saw a comment here that was basically like, we don't need to worry about copyrights because they won't matter once LLMs are able to create an OS from scratch for the cost of tokens. Which is just a batshit insane not thought through stance to have.

But then I think about the real actual planning decisions that were made based on the claims about driving cars and Hyperloop being available "soon" that made people materially worse off due to differed or canceled public transportation infrastructure.

cwmma··on The Hater's Guide to the AI Bubble
It is not clear at all if Claude will actually be profitable, are there enough people who will actually pay the subsidized costs especially if they end up being a significant fraction of an additional dev's salary.
cwmma··on The Hater's Guide to the AI Bubble
Nvidia had $35.6 billion in data center revenue vs $2.5 billion "Gaming and AI PC" revenue in the 4th quarter of 2024 so data center stuff stuff is like 93% of it
cwmma··on We have made the decision to not continue paying for BBB accreditation
Depending on where you live your state may actually have one of these, in mine it's in the office of the state Attorney General.
cwmma··on Fully homomorphic encryption and the dawn of a private internet
all modern encryption is currently held together by asymmetric encryption that are all based on "believed to be" foundations not "known to be" foundations
cwmma··on Anyone else tired of the AI hype?
There is a very clear pessimist case for the current crop of Large Language Models where:

1. training costs are going to continue to escalate much faster then the models improve.

2. the current paradigm of trained ahead of time token completion turns out not to be a pathway to "AGI" or even anything much more then we have now. As this becomes clear investment dries up.

3. without investor support user's are forced to pay full price for LLM queries and a lot of things that are super useful when this shit is subsidized up the wazoo are not worth it at full price and when people are given the choice of stopping using LLMs or ponying up more cash people realize they can get by without them.

4. Everyone who was hyping LLMs moves on to the next shiny thing and all money for "AI", even for useful stuff like old fashioned machine learning, dries up and we end up somewhat backwards from where we started except GPUs are cheap again assuming the crash doesn't take down NVIDIA.

cwmma··on Anyone else tired of the AI hype?
It feels like all the crypto hype but to an even more extreme degree. At least with all the blockchain bullshit you could be confident that all of the breathless announcements about decentralized ledgers for whatever where going to be quietly abandoned when it turned out they didn't do anything except get dumb investor money.
cwmma··on Billions of login credentials have been leaked online
it looks like a lot of these are from key loggers not from database breaches, so salted hashes, while nice, solve a different problem.
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