HNHacker News
TopNewBestAskShowJobs

cwal37

2,557 karma · joined October 17, 2013

I'm into energy and the environment.

Strategy/Founder @ gridstatus.io

submissionscomments
cwal37··on Deep geothermal energy is poised for a big breakout
We also just called it ground source when I briefly worked in the field. Although, in my experience, even though someone shells out $$$ for a "ground source heat pump" in their yard, it won't stop them from telling everyone they have geothermal.
cwal37··on Something funny is about to happen to some prices
Which means that someone, somewhere is going to get paid to create a dummy electrical load. We've never (as far as I can tell) seen "grid stability" payments for using electricity before.

Kinda, sorta. The whole conceit behind wholesale energy markets is balancing congestion on the system by changing the locational marginal prices (LMPs). If you have a very congested line, a generator with a negative shift factor (their generation will reduce flow on the line relative to the constraint) will see high prices to turn up, while generators on the other side with positive shift factors (will put more flow on the line and exacerbate congestion), will see low-to-negative prices to turn off.

There is a lot of development in these markets (in terms of energy, capacity, and ancillary services) with respect to energy storage resources, and co-located (solar+storage) facilities. If you want to know more about that, reading up on FERC Order 841[1], and the various RTO/ISO implementations to date is a good place to start.

[1] https://www.energy-storage.news/news/ferc-order-841-us-about...

cwal37··on New technology for aluminum production promises zero CO2 emission
That's a bad response when any comment could easily link to a relevant white paper. GP, MIT+INL had a nice report in 2006[1] covering a lot about that and the resource potential. The GeoVision[2] report and data from DOE is also a good and more recent project.

[1] https://energy.mit.edu/wp-content/uploads/2006/11/MITEI-The-...

[2] https://www.energy.gov/eere/geothermal/geovision

cwal37··on Kodak Alaris warns the TSA's new airport CT scanners can damage undeveloped film
I actually stopped using my DLSR entirely in the last year and picked up a pristine Canon EOS 3 for super cheap since I knew I'd be comfortable using it pretty quickly. I always found (now continued) kodachrome film to be incredibly beautiful, and when I realized there were still other color reversal films out there I took the plunge, and have been very happy with Fujiflim's Velvia[0]. and I end up putting much more thought into photos I take. It feels really different.

Here's a pretty lengthy breakdown comparison[1] of digital and film from a few years back if you wanted a read.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Velvia

[1] https://www.onlandscape.co.uk/2014/12/36-megapixels-vs-6x7-v...

cwal37··on The Best Hike in Every State (2019)
Hmm, I dunno, I've done it many times (lived in Oak Ridge for a few years), and while the the stretch from the trailhead to Alum Cave can be busy during the peak season, if you're off of that in any way it tends to not be very bad. Also, the parking can look full enough to suggest a much busier trail than I've typically encountered. Typical avoiding crowds stuff is good though (go earlier in the day, try to avoid a holiday weekend, etc., it is a very popular hike).

The Smokies is a very car-friendly park (see the people just circling Cades Coves in their car amazed at some deer or a turkey) since it has no entrance fees, is the most visited park, and in an extremely car-dependent part of the country, but that means that I often found trails much, much lighter on people than places like Yosemite, which feel much more heavily traveled.

If you do this hike, go past the lodge on LeConte all the way to Myrtle Point. Better views than Cliff Tops and enough people stop at the lodge that it winnows down the people making it there even further. Most I've ever seen out there is maybe 5-6 other people, and typically it's only a 1-3 with some time totally alone if its off season or a weekday.

The most unique Smokies experience is surely the synchronous fireflies, which I've been lucky enough to see twice (once through the lottery, once through hiking in from the main road) and highly recommend.

Alum Cave to LeConte is my favorite hike in the Smokies though, even did it another time with my partner when we came back to TN to get married.

cwal37··on Lectures in Quantitative Economics with Python [pdf]
Ahh, this is nice. I work in an office with a number of economists (energy economics consulting firm), but I’m basically the only python user. Feel like this could be useful in bridging some gaps for the folks who only use SAS and got their PhDs cobbling together whatever code (VB, FOTRAN, etc.) got their models to run back in the day.

I’ve written so much documentation on Confluence where it would have been easier to just send a pdf like this :/

cwal37··on Camera sales are falling sharply
Glad you liked them! They're in the Library of Congress, so you can get high quality digital copies from their website for free[0]. Yeah, the shots are really great and well beyond my personal ability for sure, particularly given the less advanced metering options he would have been working working with. Great learning examples though.

[0] https://www.loc.gov/photos/?fa=contributor:delano,+jack%7Clo...

cwal37··on Camera sales are falling sharply
I actually fell down a small film camera hole recently. I almost never dig out my old DSLR anymore, but I'd always admired Kodak Kodachrome photos[1]. While reading something about the film I saw a reference to fujifilm velvia[2]. Not the same, but also a color reversal film and nice for nature/landscape photography which I enjoy. This led me to purchasing a Canon EOS 3. You can find one for only a couple hundred bucks, they work with EF lenses, are pretty solid in design/construction, and have quite a few features I didn't expect from a film camera that first started production at the tail end of the 90s.

Now I take the EOS 3 out specifically and only with a prime 35mm lens. The more methodical way I think about taking pictures is a nice contrast to taking a whole bunch of shots with smartphone or DSLR and then heavily curating afterwards. I just wanted a different feeling from taking photos and it's been quite fulfilling in that respect. Although breaking the habit of looking down at the back of the camera has been quite difficult.

[1] https://www.theatlantic.com/photo/2018/10/color-photos-chica...

[2] https://www.flickr.com/groups/29949065@N00

cwal37··on We Have Ruined Childhood
Divorce rates in the US have been declining for decades. Unless you're referring to a different area or timeframe?
cwal37··on MoviePass Worked Out Great
Ha, no worries, wasn't taking a through line in Trick Mirror from what you wrote, but from the excerpts and reviews I've read elsewhere. I feel similarly close to her writing, in a specific way that's a bit electrifying when you initially have the realization of, "Oh! they also wrote that other piece I felt!", something speaking to your brand of existential experience drifting through now.

As for Brian Phillips, if you wanted to read pieces directly adjacent to some in the book, a few of the essays were adapted from freely available longform pieces he had already written. Sea of Crises[0] is very close to the in-book essay if I remember correctly, while the piece related to Out in the Great Alone[1] in the book is more of a side story. I'm a bit envious if you haven't already happened upon those and get to read the duplicative passages for the first time in the course of the book.

Also, I couldn't help clicking through to your profile given this aside (the quality and content of which I don't expect here) and I wanted to say that I appreciate the work you're doing.

[0] https://grantland.com/features/sumo-wrestling-tokyo-japan-ha...

[1] http://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/id/9175394/out-grea...

cwal37··on MoviePass Worked Out Great
Going along with the tangent, if you're into recent essay collections (as someone who has been very much looking forward to picking up Trick Mirror myself), you might like Impossible Owls by Brian Phillips which came out last year. I wouldn't call it as focused as it seems Trick Mirror is, but I get a similar kind of vibe from their writing sometimes.
cwal37··on Amazon’s Ring Is Putting Suspected Petty Thieves in Its Advertisements
It's a bit more complicated. The door-to-door thing is retail choice, typically when people talk about "deregulated" electricity markets they're often referring to stuff at the generation/transmission level (wholesale markets), where a regional transmission operator is the balancing authority and offers a variety of market products that utilities and merchant generators participate in. Generally this has been perceived as more efficient than the traditional integrated utility and lowered costs for consumers in general. Since you're on PG&E, you're probably in California ISO's territory[1].

"Retail choice" is the ability of individual households to buy directly from retail suppliers[2], and the history there is a bit spottier and less conclusive. It's not as widespread and participation has actually declined[3].

[1] http://www.caiso.com/Pages/default.aspx

[2] https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy18osti/68993.pdf

[3] https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=37452

cwal37··on Katie Bouman, the computer scientist behind the first black hole image
This paper[1] gets at it for one.

From the abstract:

" Consistent with the importance of exposure effects in career selection, women and disadvantaged youth are as underrepresented among high-impact inventors as they are among inventors as a whole. These findings suggest that there are many “lost Einsteins”—individuals who would have had highly impactful inventions had they been exposed to innovation in childhood—especially among women, minorities, and children from low-income families."

[1] https://academic.oup.com/qje/article-abstract/134/2/647/5218...

cwal37··on Great Divide in How Americans Commute to Work
Working my way through Alain Bertaud's Order Without Design: How Markets Shape Cities[1] at the moment and it's proving to be a really great resource for understanding this kind of thing and in the process marrying together a bunch of urban planning concepts and principles from economics. Also has some pretty great graphic design work on the charts and figures side of things and a nice layout wherein there are many small sections of 1-2 pages or less with condensed lessons.

Not halfway through yet, but I feel pretty comfortable recommending it if you're into the topic area of this article (urban mobility, how commutes+jobs shape urban areas, etc.).

[1] https://mitpress.mit.edu/books/order-without-design

cwal37··on Illinois Bet on Video Gambling and Lost
The knock-on effects from this poorly considered legislation are ridiculous:

The legalization of video gambling also triggered another shift in the state’s revenues, one that led to a drop in education funding. While the bulk of video gambling revenue goes to fund Illinois Jobs Now!, most of the state’s casino revenue flows into the Education Assistance Fund, which provides grants to public elementary and secondary schools, colleges and universities for building projects and other expenses.

But when video gambling became legal, gamblers no longer had to travel to the state’s 10 casinos to place a bet. Between 2013 and 2017, state revenue from casinos in Illinois declined 15 percent, from $462 million to $393 million, as income from video gambling machines grew nearly 900 percent, from $30 million to $300 million, state records show.

The cannibalization of casino revenue contributed to a 22 percent decline in the amount of money going to the Education Assistance Fund between 2013 and 2017, leaving fewer dollars for the state’s struggling schools.

cwal37··on Mapping and visualization
Based entirely on the hashtags he uses when tweeting about them (since he didn't respond to the same questions there as far as I saw) I think it's a combination of QGIS and Blender.
cwal37··on Show HN: Matrixprofile-ts – A Python library for timeseries motifs and discords
This blog post[1] from the developer helped me to understand this better. It's linked on the github page, but I wanted to provide the link for more direct clarity.

Astonishingly, we can process 20 years’ worth of data, sampled every five minutes, in less than 20 seconds.

That sounds quite promising.

[1] https://tech.target.com/2018/12/11/matrix-profile.html

cwal37··on Dirty dealing in the $175B Amazon Marketplace
The Performance workers’ incentives favor rejection. They must process approximately one claim every four minutes, and reinstating someone who later gets suspended again counts against them, according to McCabe and others.

So the system is set up in an extremely rigid way that prevents much thought on the part of the human cogs, and if something goes wrong in the future with that seller it hurts their metrics. Seems like everyone's incentivized towards punishment here. It's not that surprising, most call center type jobs seem to have stringent to the point of absurd metrics, but this seems like a poorly balanced system.

cwal37··on Ask HN: Books you read in 2018?
A few of my faves.

Non-Fiction

By Adam Tooze: Crashed, and Wages of Destruction. Both excellent economic histories, the former covering the recent financial crisis and its aftermath, the latter on the Nazi economy. Tooze does an excellent job coming up with larger trends and global narratives, I'm often amazed at just how much he's able to keep in his head.

By Richard Rothstein: The Color of Law. A quick, informative, yet more than thorough enough on the factual, legal prevention that American employed over the majority of the 20th century to prevent black Americans form participating in the housing market, both personal home ownership and public housing (a major institutional driver of household wealth and success tarting in the early 20th century).

By Jeffrey Lockwood: Locust: The Devastating Rise and Mysterious Disappearance of the Insect that Shaped the American Frontier. I had no idea the American frontier was home to devastating largest-in-the-world locust plagues that suddenly disappeared near the end of the 19th century.

By Peter Brannen: The Ends of the World. A great primer on mass extinctions and their often geologic causes.

By Rick Perstein: Nixonland. Still working on this one, but a deep dive into that era of American politics feels quite relevant at the moment, except that everything today feels stupid in comparison.

Fiction

By N.K. Jemisin: The Broken Earth trilogy. A really great self-contained story, extremely evocative, and the author actually puts out great books at an amazingly fast pace.

Cooking

By Stella Parks: Bravetart: Iconic American Desserts. If you like baking, and the history of iconic American baked goods this is a must have/read. Never thought I'd spend so much time on a carrot cake.

cwal37··on Five-Year Trends Available for Median Income, Poverty and Internet Use
Should have known I couldn't mention housing prices without comparisons to the literally-the-most-extreme outlier bay area. The DC area isn't geographically constrained the same way, doesn't have the same concentration of hyper wealth, has immediately-adjacent jurisdictions with regulatory setups more amenable to development to California, and a much better/more extensive transit system. Salaries for your typical fed or consultant here don't come close to the engineering compensation in the bay for lower level employees.

Also, it's not $425k for a single family home. It's $425k for a 60-70 year old brick or cinderblock townhome/duplex between 800-1000 sqft that was constructed as WW2-boom housing.

cwal37··on Five-Year Trends Available for Median Income, Poverty and Internet Use
Lots and lots and lots of dual-income lawyers and consultants. This is one of the areas where, on average, women have their first child at a very late age[1]. Lobbying across a wide array of industries but also defense contractors and such. I was actually just looking at median home sizes/prices[2] in that area for June of this year. I live in Arlington, bought a house earlier this year and discovered $425k is pretty much the bottom of the non-condo market, we only saw about 1 go up per month and everything closed immediately. Feels nuts here.

[1] https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/08/04/upshot/up-bir...

[2] https://twitter.com/ConnorWaldoch/status/1070301922349981697

cwal37··on Leaving NYC for Nashville
A lot of that is actually why I would recommend Knoxville over Nashvillle. It's smaller, but it has lower home prices, more access to nature (I went hiking in the Smokies or Cumberland plateau many weekends), less of the country kitsch, better weather since it's higher up (although still somewhat miserable in parts of the summer), but you still get an airport and the tax/income stuff if you care. Plus, Oak Ridge National Lab (why I was there), Y-12 and the University of Tennessee mean it can be a bit denser in terms of some tech stuff and the general mood (I very much feel you on the fake-friendly-christian-tied-weirdness, found it to be less so in Knox) if you know where and how to look. More of an old-hand career-oriented crowd than the younger Nashville scene, but still interesting people.

Although, ultimately, I reached the same conclusion. I'm from Chicago and now I live in Arlington right outside of DC. I got out as soon as my contract ended. Can't really imagine going back.

cwal37··on Bringing Extinct Animals Back to Life?
I actually assumed this article was a few years old since I've read several variants covering the exact same people and species. If you like this kind of thing, far and away my favorite piece I've ever read on un-extincting a species is "Pleistocene Park"[1]. It's ~9k words or so, but really great.

[1] https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2017/04/pleisto...

cwal37··on Amazon Plans to Split HQ2 Evenly Between Two Cities
Crystal City is a nightmare from a commuting perspective only if you're dead set on driving, and even then it depends very much on where you're coming from. I've lived on the Yellow/Blue lines south of DCA, now I'm in west Arlington, and I've done plenty of commuting along that corridor by bus/train/bike/car (Mt. Vernon/4 mile run/ W &OD trails for biking/running as a commute is very effective).

Also there's a relatively high concentration of metro stops as is for a section that's not urban/DC core, and Potomac Yard is finally coming in in a couple years as well. Plus a pretty high commercial vacancy and a bit of marginal land that can still be developed. I mean, the dream would be they come in there and somehow spur additional transit down Columbia Pike, but that's probably a bit too much to hope for.

It's also already not easy at all to buy a home there (speaking as someone who bought a place in Arlington a few months ago), so it must not be too awful to live there.

cwal37··on Why Public Transportation Works Better Outside the U.S
The Anne Arundel county stuff is BS, same old fear and segregation, crime remains low, and there's basically no evidence the rail is bringing people in to do more crime[1]. This isn't even the first time this has come up over the years. Similar things happened in the ATL 'burbs back in the day, before MARTA was built out, and they successfully stymied its expansion.

[1] https://ggwash.org/view/68549/some-anne-arundel-county-wants...

cwal37··on Tesla meets Q3 production goals of 50,000 to 55,000 Model 3s
Oil is not typically a major resource, but in cold winters in gas pipeline-constrained areas, i.e., New York and New England, there is quite a bit of oil generation. Even in high load summer days when gas is available but the load is much higher than the winter you'll see a bunch of oil units turn on.

Oil-fired and dual-fuel units in those RTOs (NYISO and ISO-NE) also make up a pretty large amount of the total installed capacity.

cwal37··on Lyft and Uber Won’t Be Happy Until They’re Your One-Stop Transit Guide
In the DC area, an annual Capital Bikeshare membership is only $85. I recently started mixing some biking into my commute and thought about purchasing a bike, but the $400-500 I was looking at for something durable and well reviewed was hard to justify for my fairly chill, all-trails, 1-4 times a week biking home from the office. Particularly when I compared it to the dramatically lower personal overhead associated with the bikeshare. Of course, my living and working situations are fortuitously situated with respect to existing docks, but I really enjoy not worrying at all about "my" bike.
cwal37··on How private equity firms make money offering loans to cash-strapped Americans
Something that stands out to me is the extent to which PE is in all kinds of different agencies through various sector-specific funds. I recognized several of the firms mentioned from the power sector, where they have a habit of acquiring somewhat distressed assets that still have some value in one of the market structures (e.g., selling capacity) even if they don't really expect the plant to run very much at all.

In one sense it's good that someone has the flexibility to maintain an asset that still has real value but a different use case than its original intention, but on the other side that money could be propping up something that doesn't really have long-term value; distorting the market by delaying entries by newer or more efficient technologies.

I remember seeing a comment the other day about how the next recession could probably/easily not be housing (the last one) or tech (the one before that), but the next big chunk of the economy that's under-studied and not well known. Maybe it's these pools of cash at the top extracting more $ from everyone below them on the global financial stage. Not sure what the failure point or mechanism would be though.

cwal37··on San Francisco’s Seismic Gamble
"Right now the code says a structure must be engineered to have a 90 percent chance of avoiding total collapse. But many experts believe that is not enough.

“Ten percent of buildings will collapse,” said Lucy Jones, the former leader of natural hazards research at the United States Geological Survey who is leading a campaign to make building codes in California stronger. “I don’t understand why that’s acceptable.”"

One way that reads to me is that an event over some threshold has a high probability to cause the complete collapse all of those buildings. 90% doesn't seem like a very high threshold either, if it corresponds straight out to a 1-in-10 event that seems quite bad. If it's a 90% chance of survival in a 1-in-100 event, that's better, but not great.

cwal37··on Stuff in Space – realtime 3D map of objects in Earth's orbit
+1

It's the forgotten point of reduce, reuse, recycle. People are almost always surprised when I mention that it's a ranked list, heading towards less efficacy. You might be proud of recycling, but it's the low hanging and least useful choice. Simply not using things or re-using sturdier goods is far and away the better choice in terms of waste.

← PreviousPage 3 of 11Next →