The party has done something about enormous involution in solar panels, for example (https://www.csis.org/analysis/chinas-solar-industry-upheaval...) and previously steel. They're planning something for cars. They don't on LLM because of the newness and the wish for preeminence.
There are 1000 Chinese labs. They are involuting, they cannot coordinate and the state won't let them coordinate because the state wants domination, not actual profits for anybody. So the market forces are allowed to dominate.
Because of the basic huge recession going on in China, you can't actually make money in China doing China things. So they gotta gird up their export stuff and try to export. That entails strong relations with American companies, American PR, English stuff, etc.
If you want an essay about this from a VC, read this one
We don't have a recent ARR, and their ARR calculation has had irregularities. They really do seem to have eyepopping ARR growth no matter how you slice it, though, but I kind of imagine also eyepopping churn, because of the commodity nature of LLM, even if they claim top bottom and sideways that they decommoditized LLM.
I don't think ROIC on a company that creates superintelligence is infinite. Nothing can defy physical law, nothing can teleport, nothing can reduce the universe's entropy, nothing can go faster than C, so there are structural limits keeping everything finite. Infinities turn people nuts, generally.
because of the immortality of financial accounts and such, it's basically what's happened to the economy. ancient 100, 200-year-old trusts choking the viability of laborers doing anything and so on. especially bad in europe.
There's cowardice and there's weakness. Because of the reduced enrollment nationally and the successful attacks on grants, universities have to compete for students now and it will be more difficult to take stands, just as us software-touchers find it more difficult to take the kinds of stands we like to take as our positions on the job market become less ironclad. The strong do as they will and the weak do as they must, but that doesn't really prevent the weak from nursing grudges for later.
Joining to another crater-low birth rate society will not make anything better on that front. No pro-natalist policy I am aware of has actually worked, and I'm regrettably aware of quite a few.
Near the beginning of my career, I talked to a greybeard who harrumphed at me discussing something-or-other and said "computer security is an oxymoron". I thought he was being too pessimistic, nowadays I realize he was right.
Feudalism is about the right to violence. Do any of these organizations have private armies? No private armies (I suppose in modern times, also private air forces, tank battalions, nuclear warheads and nuclear triads, drone divisions...), no feudalism. Brutal suppression of underclass folks can be done with or without the state.
Feudalism itself had strong variance in the amount of suppression of the underclass. The albigensian crusade, for example (the anti-cathar crusade) was to suppress the egalitarian anti-clerical sect which had been successfully renegotiating the relation between clerics, nobility and peasants in the favor of the peasants for 100 years by then. That was successful in mostly killing them all. But the dithsmarchen were able to successfully have a de facto peasant republic for 200, 300 years after successfully repelling an invasion in the late 12th century and they got back into the holy roman empire by a negotiated settlement, by dint of being way more armed and harder to invade.
They define "frontier lab" in terms of cost-effectiveness, but LLM stuff is going down in price for a given model with a robust software-sized growth curve. It's just that there's a model size war going on. So any cost-effectiveness statement stays there for like 3 weeks then someone murders a price 60% or something. So "frontier lab" has to be about capability, damn the cost, just like it's been for the entirety of the LLM thing, frankly. Some things folks are willing to bust 50 million bucks (50 billion bucks, etc) on.
If someone tells you up, down and sideways that they follow an idealpolitik view of the world, they really are usually doing realpolitik. If someone tells you up, down and sideways that they follow a realpolitik view of the world, they usually are up in idealpolitik up to their eyeballs. So no realpolitik was happening today
All sovereign bond demand will decrease generally, because of the failure of defined benefit pensions everywhere. Basically nobody new with any sense in the private sector does them, they're being phased out in the public sector, and this is a global phenomenon because of the general poor agent-principal problems and extreme expense now that we see a generation with the damn things and all that. Who the hell buys a 30-year treasury? Pensions do, frankly. Still holds for other sovereign debt everywhere. Norway's sovereign fund has elements of pension-nature to it but it's not a pension, it's a giant pile of stuff.
You pay $2 million to some ambitious someone and you get a serious chance (1-3%, still counts as a serious chance) to have some ostensible societal benefit. Get a factory made or some software written or something else done. You pay $2 million to the landholder, you get literally nothing done for society. Even the housebuilders have their businesses basically destroyed by default by the gigantic parasite leech of land sucking on every sale they make. That's Henry George's complaint, right there.
Any serious career programmer knows in their bones that it's a miracle that anything works at all. Now the general public is getting to learn that fact, by everything systematically breaking. Or getting hacked, in this case.
Workaday copywriting is dead (was moribund, now has been shot in the head). Prestige literary writing is zero-sum and therefore eternal, in the same way that equities trading (not formation and not business-building) is zero-sum and therefore the actual success of LLM has not given anyone a signal advantage anywhere there, because everyone else has LLM too.
LLM can't have legitimacy in doing things to human beings, because it's impossible for LLM to have political legitimacy. Political legitimacy in modern societies is already a vicious zero-sum game with a tiny elite having any in the first place, none will be given to objects. Mental health is inextricably linked with violence and political legitimacy therefore, so the triage lacking efficacy or not doesn't even matter - it doesn't have legitimation. The violence inherent in triage is not justified.
Being a high-performing sort of peep is radically contingent on situation, context and the fit of the peep and the environment. So saying, ontologically, that someone is a 10x or in this case an even more foolish 100x engineer is not a coherent statement about a person that can exist: it's like saying someone is ontologically fluent in the language of the country they are in. What country are they in? Are they in startup-land, enterprise-blub-land, tech-major-land, make-actual-touchable-things-and-build-software-for-it-land, what?
As Nassim Taleb puts it, you often get gluts that aren’t followed by shortages, but it’s very rare to get a shortage that’s not followed by a glut.
(from the article)
I think this is also politically contingent upon the general world grand suppression of demand going on because nobody in a central bank really takes the employment mandates they often have seriously whereas they all take the inflation suppression thing really seriously (quite rational - look at what happened to Turkey)
It's like the progression from manual labor as a society to mass automation of everything physical. Even construction workers have to go to the gym. You'll have to do gym things with the mind, too, now. But gym things are not actually manual labor - the task is to find something you can do reliably that helps, rather than get productive things done.