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curio_Pol_curio

27 karma · joined March 13, 2026

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curio_Pol_curio··on The Productivity J-Curve [pdf] (2018)
PP's point has (mostly?) been addressed in

https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/mac.20180386

Inputs that can be monopolized are manifestly _not_ the intangibles; price-taking is independent of their effect

curio_Pol_curio··on The Productivity J-Curve [pdf] (2018)
If you are one of those that are amused by attempts to synthesize paradigms, here's one that superposes J-curve on the hype curve

https://www.financialprofessionals.org/training-resources/re...

Q: The J-dip is where capital stock is just about to overtake investment growth, why should it lag the hype trough where presumably value overtakes interest ?

curio_Pol_curio··on OpenAI Losses Increased Nearly 8X in 2025, with Spending Hitting $34B
? https://www.theinformation.com/articles/openai-burned-3-7-bi... ?

https://www.theinformation.com/briefings/index-startup-ornn-...

curio_Pol_curio··on Leo's first encyclical attacks technological messianism
that's when it appears cum "laude" (eg)

in commonwealth (seniors in everyday UK, HR and pedants otherwise) usage it rhymes with dumb, like you'd expect

https://youtu.be/RzESsmv5FhM

Radcliff-cum-Chackmore

curio_Pol_curio··on Naphtha shortages in Japan
Thermal recycling is a classic Japanese euphemism for burning plastics. Yes, for energy, but it's still misleading

https://www.mitsui.com/solution/en/contents/solutions/circul...

>it produces CO2 and toxic substances when it is burned.

curio_Pol_curio··on The Kaiser and a "Mediocre Man" Theory of History
Bismarck? Or

>his liberal father

Might be a stretch to imply that the Wilhelm II was a mediocre illiberal. HIM was (for a time) interested in protecting workers' rights. However great he was, Bismarck couldn't overpower a "mediocre" populist

https://germanhistorydocs.org/en/forging-an-empire-bismarcki...

curio_Pol_curio··on The Steinwinter Supercargo
Timeless interior. Maybe inspired

https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/df7a5e0c-8004-40...

(from the electric Ferrari

http://www.roadandtrack.com/photos/g71401901/2028-ferrari-lu...)

curio_Pol_curio··on Should other living systems have agentic reprsentation?
Quick TILs:

-preemptive defence=best offence=plausibly not a school bully

https://www.brookings.edu/articles/you-go-to-war-with-the-pr...

>As the saying goes, you go to [HN] with the [question] you have. And you don’t want a good [problem] ruined [for want of data].

-kitsunehanmen is cool. "coolness" ~ "calm+wild". Isaac Newton with kh, masks inward looking cageyness under outward looking edginess

-enby may not be "approachable". Smiley Ben Franklin is not as cool as a Ben Franklin that threatens cougars just by _being_

Newton: pope=Antichrist

nobody: Newton=Antichrist

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Therion_(Thelema)

curio_Pol_curio··on The More Young People Use AI, the More They Hate It
LLM platforms are not fundamentally collaborative (think chatGPT vs stack overflow, or google DeepMind vs Bell Labs)

Otherwise they would

1. force humans to spend much more time on these decisions, and

2. Teach humans that the only way to save time on decision-making is to collaborate with other humans

I had a reply to your Asian take https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47970518

curio_Pol_curio··on AI optimism surges in Asia, unlike in the U.S.
How about Taiwan?

It's not fully Confucianist like the others[0], Taoist ex-Minister Audrey Tang visualizes AI to be a glue, "a steering wheel rather than a hamster wheel"

https://english.cw.com.tw/article/article.action?id=3795

AI that addresses the "Golden Ticket mindset", sidestepping centralized agenda with decentralized agency.

In my own words,

  Helps people work together to find ( not better solutions, but ) better problems
(LLM platforms are far from collaborative-- there is no Confucianist "productivity flywheel' neither)

Maybe once the youth-driven TPP gets into power their TFR+TFP might overtake SK's

(gerontocrats of Taiwan are equally exploitative but fortuitously their tentacles don't reach into software :)

[0]the symbolisms on your flag suggests that it should be much more Taoist than it is tho?

curio_Pol_curio··on US National Debt Surpasses GDP
According to 2024 GDI, using the generous "HN definition" which includes Finland and Czechia, only 1/2 of robust democracies are in "Western Europe"

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/the-state-of-democracy-arou...

Bonus: https://old.reddit.com/r/imaginaryelections/comments/krvb1y/...

curio_Pol_curio··on Iran caused more extensive damage to U.S. military bases than publicly known
There's this:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberal_Marxism

Which I feel is the "most complete take"

>Karl Marx... only criticizing the freedom in the great inequality of wealth and power.[3]

Confucianism is mostly CPC marketing; its gerontocratic heart really beats for Legalism, though some still hope for the "tail wagging the dog, peacefully", just like we'd want "civic individualism" (now represented by Mamdani?) to wag the genroto-corporatist dog in the US.

Regarding the pensions, it's not like national-level legislators are getting censured for supporting their raise.

I'm glad Taiwan's not tied to the DPP, because I'd rather support this:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan_People%27s_Party#Policy

Looks like it's projected to replace DPP after the boomers die off (peacefully)!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2024_T...

Sorry, it's just immoral to me to sow discord against CPC in an US-based geronto-corporatist forum. If you want we can continue this on a PRC youth-forum (where I'd think it would be immoral to cast aspersions on US :)

Regarding Taiwanese fix for liberalism, Audrey Tang (with Glen Weyl) is not wasting time:

https://newpublic.substack.com/p/how-taiwan-is-leading-the-w...

>As Daron Acemoglu and James A. Robinson famously argued, free democratic societies exist in a “narrow corridor” between social collapse and authoritarianism. From both sides, information technologies seem to be narrowing the corridor, squeezing the possibility of a free society.

She'll probably run under the TPP flag?

https://vitalik.eth.limo/general/2024/08/21/plurality.html

curio_Pol_curio··on UAE to leave OPEC
archive for the Reuters article

https://archive.ph/uSXJx

curio_Pol_curio··on Iran caused more extensive damage to U.S. military bases than publicly known
FWIW I think both CPC and US "system" are _both_ fundamentally doomed versions of liberalism. (Are we forgetting that Marx was a liberal?) As is Taiwan's DPP. They are losing the youth vote to the more consistent but pragmatic 3rd party, which will likely lead to the loss of the Presidency to the pro-unification KMT.

CPC are not so much banning the Qur'an as making it subservient to Confucianism (which is a liberalish ideology that human nature is basically wholesome and does not need to be benchmarked against a higher standard)

More "nuanced" criticism here (facts here may be triggering)

https://bitterwinter.org/china-promotes-a-confucianized-appr...

How about instead of getting angry with the heuristics of _fellow liberals_, thus shilling for the deaths of essentially apolitical billions, we get angry with our liberal selves for not being able to see how to fix the fundamental issues with liberalism-- itself not immune to cultlike thought patterns

Start by studying the work of Karp, ex-student of Habermas, you may learn something about yourself :)

curio_Pol_curio··on Iran caused more extensive damage to U.S. military bases than publicly known
Your abbreviation PCC suggests to me you're francophone. So you're probably not aware that everything you say about China has an equivalent in the US (deeply divided, lacking empathy etc)

The political content of the respective education systems is different though. What one observes is, Chinese seem unwilling to criticize the government, but Americans seem to be unable to filter out misinformation. In the US, church or other "civic institutions" are conduits for divergent narratives; imagine the French Catholic church but much more fragmented or independent.

It also depends on the time period. As China modernizes it has become less repressive to the average citizen-- though probably still as repressive to dissidents. Rural versus urban divide exists too, just like in the US. (Modern Vendee?) What were the religious background of the people you talked to? PCC is terrified of cults which spread alternative politics under the guise of spirituality. For historical reasons. You will notice that mainstream Islam is fine.

In any event, when wars happen due to decisions taken by government, civilians take the bulk of the damage. It is not a noble thing to speak on the side of violent foreign policy, especially when its couched in the language of "liberation" or "security"

curio_Pol_curio··on 'Perfect Japan' posts spark Gen Z social media backlash
USians being proud of their nonconformism is like PG or Elon taking pride in their (children's) (meta)cognitive abilities (or HN talking its curiosity book)

The more sophisticated equilibrium to compare with the Japanese is the Swiss: it seems that the reason Swiss max(quirkiness) is significantly less that JP's is that CH has been optimising for skepticism of Karens ("pride" is maybe the key metric to look at, if we care to do a 3-agent strong-link weak-link analysis)

As SF (city and literary genre) become less like the frontier, the individual-community tradeoff is going to look more like the Dutch-- all the commercialised quirkiness does is make you groan, the way rbanffy's kids make him (if he has any)!

Btw, 2-way Protecting Power Mandate is a terrestrial image of the Mandate of Heaven, imho

https://www.swisscommunity.org/en/news-media/swiss-revue/art...

(I read the above as OSA propaganda :)

Eg between minimally viable narcissists and individuals who are merely or quietly nonconformist

curio_Pol_curio··on Texas Populists Almost Destroyed the Two-Party System
Guessed that this was way before the Great (values) Party Flip.

After the Flip it was more clear that the pachyderm hides behind "sincere deviance" (long before Nixon-Kissinger; I'll dig that up later) but the asinid hides behind "sacrificial (thusiatic) normativity".

"Let's be honest our brutality helps everyone, including ourselves."

VS

"I struggle to say it out loud, but you suffer just like us"

>As one West Texas tenant farmer wrote, ‘We must work together to help our brethren see the light. Give us Socialism and the religion of our Lord and Savior Jesus Christ.’

Thus an internal values-flip happened in the R-elite.. were there philosophy manuals that made this legible (besides Ayn R's)

curio_Pol_curio··on Technical, cognitive, and intent debt
How does it --if it does-- relate to your idea of "affordability porn" :)

That line (between your other values?) was uproarious; I apologise for not u*voting it, partially because I couldn't vocalise my peculiar fetish att (+ "gnarliness-pornstar" doesn't sound nearly as enticing as "AI-affordability-pornstar" X)

curio_Pol_curio··on The levels of Mong Kok: one of Hong Kong's labyrinthine camera malls
MK is like (lower) midtown west?

In terms of food options too

https://youtu.be/fHmMx98G2cs

curio_Pol_curio··on We accepted surveillance as default
Ads on the FB & goog network (this includes phys.org btw) are NOT paper tigers, in the sense that

  they are a reliable anti-signal
(to short, not to buy, to look at rising competitors, to look into reasons why a product might be failing, to sus out the lack of foresight in their investors, to extract other high cost channels/signals that they are still using ntless

As an example of the last one, I just learnt about an ISO standard.. )

YMMV depending on how much the network knows [it doesn't know] about you ofc ;)

curio_Pol_curio··on America Lost the Mandate of Heaven
GP might be making a prediction about Demis Hassabis, who happens to break the mold you've just described

(but he is not a member of "the Physics community" so their expectations won't mean anything to him?)

curio_Pol_curio··on America Lost the Mandate of Heaven
I just realised that this is why SV centre-right is lowkey obsessed with Japan.

Contrast with the SV-aligned execs-turned-thought-leaders from decades ago that used to claim that it is not in the cultural DNA of Japan to innovate. They don't say that now, but they still look to Japan for inspiration as Steve Jobs used to do before it got fashionable

Today, Japan has a diverse economy but one could argue in good faith that its the lack of financial innovation that's holding them back

(Lack of raw resources very much a red herring-- as ever, something that the almost perennially rightwing Japanese government has never gotten less OCD about)

Another "mesocosm": Hollywood is _quietly_ looking East for "cultural innovation", bc the studio system "knows" that not even Korea can catch up. Is bigtech this certain? Do they have to MJGA before MAGA?

curio_Pol_curio··on How Unique Are Mythos's Hacking Capabilities?
To make hacking challenging+world-changing (in good ways) hire a large bunch of enby adults to do it for you?

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47821166

----

Dang and maybe all the mods are probably enby because they

   are open to the necessity of psychopathy without necessarily excusing it
(Their nonenby employers probably excuse it (eg calling it "sophisticated naughtiness") as a _learned reflex_ borne of experience. "reflex" qualification is the key it seems to me atm.. maybe one can explain that with "asexuality" too (aka needing to feel special/having ever felt special is a common blindspot otherwise ))

----

I'm still trying to work out how "cosmic narcissism" reframes this problem

curio_Pol_curio··on Mozilla Thunderbolt
>"Girard"

>"99.9%"

I despise "centrist-moderation" just like any other guy but maybe "entrepreneurial dignity" is not 100% of something but 65\pm1% homeownership

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/mapped-europes-homeownershi...

curio_Pol_curio··on George Orwell Predicted the Rise of "AI Slop" in Nineteen Eighty-Four
"I read a self-help book. It's really good. Everything works out if you'd just follow the rules."

https://youtu.be/KOiDWGs4JE4?t=28s

wHNston

curio_Pol_curio··on Ask HN: Will we ever do something about patent trolls?
Just saw this one. Chinese researchers based in US took out a patent in Japan

https://patents.google.com/patent/JP2013504542A5/ja

https://www.chemistryworld.com/news/biomedical-researchers-l...

curio_Pol_curio··on Ask HN: Will we ever do something about patent trolls?
It's an old concept that "the system [of property]" has a hard time fighting:

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/absentee-owner.asp

Think about what allows the toxic management company to thrive, eg, by becoming the principal (part of it is an identity problem I pointed to in sibling comment)

The garden hose example is a good faith scenario but maybe it still feels icky to you because they arent the "genuine inventors" :)

How are they going to prove that? Put up a diff tree of their improvements?

curio_Pol_curio··on Ask HN: Will we ever do something about patent trolls?
>"NPE"

That's an example of tripartite problem (innovators/IP-arbitrageurs/commercializers) that's easy to oversimplify to a bipartite one (NPE vs "practicians") by inadequate notation

curio_Pol_curio··on Red States Are Driving America's Solar Boom Despite Trump's Opposition
https://www.conservativetexansforenergyinnovation.org/how-te...
curio_Pol_curio··on Japan lessens privacy laws to become "The easiest county to develop AI in"
That's one. Another, making it expensive for outsiders

https://archive.ph/8pZzW

https://archive.ph/zZIen

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