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culion Gemini 4 Argon

That's an extremely optimistic timeline. But I guess if any nation can achieve that, it'd be China. I'm usually the most bullish person in the room when I say 2 years fwiw

culion Gemini 4 Argon

I think they will actually. They've made remarkable technological achievements at record pace in other areas and even their proof of concept EUV machine was incredible.

I don't think anyone has any clue how long it will take for them to have actual functioning EUV machines, but I highly doubt they will do it within 2 years.

culion Gemini 4 Argon

I can't believe people actually watch these clickbait nothingburger videos.

To be clear, I think China will eventually crack domestic EUV. And I also think their advances with multi-patterning LUV are remarkable. But there's just a hard physics wall of how far they could possible take it.

Right now they are producing 5nm with multi-patterning LUV but yields are at 20%! It's a massive economic loss but they are heavily subsidizing it because they have no other choice until their EUV program is achieved

culion Gemini 4 Argon

I wouldn't be surprised if we're already at the point of more LLM-written Rust than hand-written. Models training off models

culion Gemini 4 Argon

China will always be generations behind until they crack domestic EUV

culion Gemini 4 Argon

I'm not necessarily defending this obvious marketing speak but maybe the "starting point" was wider than assumed. So far, nobody has caught up to US and Chinese labs for example despite lots of funding in Europe. This is also despite abundant in-depth research papers being published alongside open source code and weights by some Chinese labs

culion Tesla takes on $30B in credit as it approaches unprofitability

I personally like human interaction, but most people I see raving about Waymos like them because they don't have to interact with a human. What's the point if there's someone in the driver's seat? The only difference between a regular taxi is that it's currently heavily subsidized by Tesla so they can prop up their ridership statistics

culion Tesla takes on $30B in credit as it approaches unprofitability

You can't buy a Chinese EV anywhere in the US. They are banned. Even if you wanted to pay the 100% tariff, you can't buy one because they ban any cars with any software made in China and certain Chinese made hardware

culion Tesla takes on $30B in credit as it approaches unprofitability

They might see a rebound from last year which was a bad year for them but that's likely driven by some pretty aggressive price cuts.

China is actually nearly 3x bigger market for them than Europe and we have clearer numbers on how that's going:

  2019:  45,372
  2020: 137,459
  2021: 320,743
  2022: 439,770
  2023: 603,664
  2024: 657,102
  2025: 625,698

2026 so far has been shaping up to be a huge contraction. Only 316,251 were shipped in the first 8 months. (BYD sold 440k units in August alone)

culion Tesla takes on $30B in credit as it approaches unprofitability

What makes you think you'd ever be allowed to buy a Chinese EV in the US?

culion Tesla takes on $30B in credit as it approaches unprofitability

Someone sits in the front though and drives you around manually. That's just a simple taxi except its highly subsidized so Tesla can run its grift

culion US sanctions force The Netherlands off Microsoft and toward alternative NixOS

Who cares? It shouldn't even have been close. The fact that enough of the country supports him that he could even get within 2.1% of the popular vote in 2016 is enough to show how morally rotten the whole nation is. The US empire deserves to collapse

culion US sanctions force The Netherlands off Microsoft and toward alternative NixOS

Because 165 countries are signed on to the Rome Statute and are required to arrest war criminals (as deemed by ICC) like Netanyahu if they step foot in their country.

That's not nothing.

culion GLM-5.3 and the spread of advanced cyber capabilities

> said providers are not "building models for free for the public." They are doing it to hamstring America's dominance in AI, primarily by undercutting the frontier labs.

That's just the same thing said again but from a butthurt USian perspective. China is freeing the rest of us from US dominance.

culion 12,000-year-old Göbeklitepe burials explain scattered bones

Well other than being dead, I'm not sure what you mean. Graeber is the anthropologist (and the guy who organized Occupy). Wengrow is the archeologist.

My take on the different fields:

- anthropology: a central figure. Like all central figures, he can be polarizing

- archeology: a big collaborator but has never pretended to be an archeologist

- economics: celebrated by behavioral economists, rejected by neoclassical ones

- sociology: pretty widely celebrated and cited

culion U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve Falls to Lowest Level Since 1982

Gas has already skyrocketed

https://www.gasbuddy.com/charts

It was higher in price at the peak of the Russia-Ukraine disruptions but that's because it was already coming off Covid-related supply chain disruptions. It rose more from Iran war than it did from the Russia war.

culion U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve Falls to Lowest Level Since 1982

War with one of the world's largest oil producers? And sanctions about that oil? And Europe becoming almost entirely dependent on middle east and US oil instead? And the blowing up of a massive pipeline?

Remember that?

culion U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve Falls to Lowest Level Since 1982

US is actually really good at processing that type of crude. Much better than the oil we drill domestically. Don't forget that US oil companies used to dominate Venezuela. In 1976, Venezuela bought out the companies and paid them what they claimed they were worth on their financial/tax ledgers. Ofc all the companies massively deflated their worth to avoid taxes so this angered them and they've never really stopped complaining about it.

Trump has basically enacted their revenge for that.

culion U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve Falls to Lowest Level Since 1982

It's worth pointing out that these are stored across ~60 salt caverns that were built to do a max of 5 drawdowns. All of them are now at about 9 drawdowns and there's every drawdown introduces serious structural integrity issues. We will never be able to completely empty them but the actual floor is debated.

The previous head of the reserves said we "couldn't realistically go below 300m". The Dept. of Energy requires at least 250m in the reserves for emergencies. Some other have estimated we could go as low as 70m.

It's entirely possible that we've already just about reached the minimum.

The very lowest layer of oil also has more sediment mixing issues and requires more processing to be useful.

culion U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve Falls to Lowest Level Since 1982

the oil oligarchs lose political control the bigger the reserves are. By emptying it, they have guaranteed their political power not just on Trump but for years to come

culion U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve Falls to Lowest Level Since 1982

Heritage Foundation has long advocated for emptying the reserves. They wrote Project 2025 but I'm not sure it was an explicit goal in the actual blueprint we got to see

culion U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve Falls to Lowest Level Since 1982

The Heritage Foundation (who made Project 2025) has long advocated for completely emptying the reserves.

Oil barrens will now yield even more political leverage not just over trump but also his successors

culion Does Reddit have an astroturfing problem? What the data suggests

There is a massive marketplace for accounts used by actual humans who then sell their accounts. One tell I noticed about these accounts is they often frequent video game subreddits as they have a lower barrier to entry

culion 12,000-year-old Göbeklitepe burials explain scattered bones

More evidence for David Graeber and David Wengrow's reading of the site.

Between Göbekli Tepe, Poverty Point, Cahokia, and other sites we have pretty good evidence of complex urban societies that did not rely on agriculture. And even in these few sites we have abundant evidence of diversity of social structures from radically egalitarian to hierarchical

The linear narrative of the evolution of human societies is dead

culion Biology might not be quantum, but its math is quantumlike

Xavi Bou (the photographer)'s website is quite neat https://xavibou.com/

culion Supreme Court permits states to use SAVE database for citizenship checks

4 people charged with election fraud in PA and 400 votes in NJ due to software error that was ultimately caught.

Basically what every election fraud expert has been saying. There's always a dozen or so cases per year and the occasional glitch that gets caught.

that's the best Trump can muster to justify a "stolen election"?

culion U.S. appeals court upholds designation of Anthropic as supply chain risk

War crimes have a precise legal meaning and have for a long time. Get off of twitter and touch grass if you feel you're getting called racist too often.

culion U.S. appeals court upholds designation of Anthropic as supply chain risk

Lol if only. CoreCivic once accidentally left their logo on a bill they wrote for a congressperson and the congressperson forgot to remove it when presenting it. Actually it's happened multiple times. Most "model bills" that are tough-on-crime are written by them.

culion Supreme Court permits states to use SAVE database for citizenship checks

show it to us bud

culion Rails World 2026 Opening Keynote [video]

https://www.state.gov/defining-anti-roma-racism

> Anti-Roma racism is a manifestation of individual expressions and acts as well as institutional policies and practices of marginalization, exclusion, physical violence, devaluation of Roma cultures and lifestyles, and hate speech directed at Roma as well as other individuals and groups perceived, stigmatized, or persecuted during the Nazi era, and still today, as “Gypsies.” This leads to the treatment of Roma as an alleged alien group and associates them with a series of pejorative stereotypes and distorted images that represent a specific form of racism.

> Anti-Roma racism did not start with or end after the Nazi era but continues to be a central element in crimes perpetrated against Roma. In spite of the important work done by the United Nations, the European Union, the Council of Europe, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, and other international bodies, the stereotypes and prejudices about Roma have not been delegitimized or discredited vigorously enough so that they continue to persist and can be deployed largely unchallenged.

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> Sending people home is not the same as genocide

Home to where? Roma people have been widespread in Europe since the 13th century