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contingencies

12,680 karma · joined November 13, 2012

The major thing that we found was that you had to look at the whole problem. - Joseph Henry Condon, Bell Labs
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contingencies··on Autism is genetic – and why this information matters now
thick_skin certainly isn't your play is it ;)
contingencies··on Autism is genetic – and why this information matters now
Don't blame others. Inaction is the only thing between you and a better world. Go do something about it.
contingencies··on Autism is genetic – and why this information matters now
It has infinite patience as a teacher in an infinitesimal number of detail oriented specific areas where others would fail. It can maintain perspective on longer term goals and repetition and such through proven autism treatment pathways like CBT/speech therapies where humans be prohibitively expensive or would tire. That's surely something? It can reinforce bringing detail out to generalities. That helps for some. I'd say pedagogy and communications therapy are therefore both clear areas of promise.

These are viable for the population as a whole, not just people with autism or identified learning difficulties.

contingencies··on A software thing I built: GPS on a 25MHz 486-SX
In Y2K I built a Linux on PC104 solution with GPS, bonded dual-channel mobile 9600 baud data links, and a (slow) image feed. It was kind of special to see the data coming over the mobile network in those days: this was before mobile data using basic PSTN modem tech! Very lossy and slow, as the algorithms did not account for mobile voice compression.
contingencies··on Saving Jet Fuel
Manual processes: Most takeoff/landing processes, navigation waypoint input/confirmation/naming/registration, ATC, regulatory, ground service, gate allocation, boarding, cargo loading, radio, one could go on...

I'm not a pilot, but there are other pilots here, and their opinion is very close to mine: the post is BS.

contingencies··on Saving Jet Fuel
It's a by-word for expert systems with management conception as well as multi-domain comprehension these days. Reasoning through failures in one sensor domain with limited data from other domains within a fixed period following strict risk protocols at 3:01AM is the sort of thing AI would excel at versus humans.
contingencies··on Saving Jet Fuel
It will never work because you have too many human processes in the loop. This HN share by the author is selling the idea of consulting to obtain nominal efficiency on a well established process to human organizations who are structurally opposed to it, subject to human regulators who are structurally opposed to it, in an industry that is famous for aversion to change. Nice try drumming up clients, but realistically you're not going to move the mountain a millimeter on this one. Quicker to wait for AI airports, AI ATC and AI airlines than selling to humans at this point. 20th century humanity just about spitballed together a working system, but making it efficient is not going to happen on our watch. We would do well to admit it.
contingencies··on Most people prefer traditional architecture
TLDR: Architecture optimizes for what is cheap to construct and meets the needs of the commissioning entity at the time of construction. This is often about a big facade, a dream, grandstanding or power dynamics instead of livability or community experience, particularly street acceptance. It's no wonder people prefer older architecture: it was necessarily more reasonably scaled, often more ornate and particular (since hand tools were used anyway: why not make it beautiful?), and featured now basically unavailable materials like giant timber beams which present more softly.
contingencies··on I can't stop thinking about Papua New Guinea
I have a small collection of traditional PNG artifacts. Spears, masks, oars, axes, etc. I really like them and consider them generally very under-valued as evidence of the dominant technologies over the majority of human history.

Some good places to see them are the Asian Museum in Lisbon, the Wereldmuseum in Rotterdam, the Ethnology Museum in Berlin.

contingencies··on Steam Frame starts at $1059
In constrained plane environments https://github.com/vk2diy/hackbook-m4-mini works well and has long battery life. I fix the screen to the seat using adapted helping hands and use a wireless keyboard/mouse for input. Super comfy as long as your eyes can deal with the reduced distance (look down the aisle occasionally).
contingencies··on The Interim Computer Museum
In the same vein if you're in Sydney check out the Australian Computer Museum https://acms.org.au/ https://maps.app.goo.gl/UKtUrrDpDnfAWn6d6
contingencies··on Reconstructing Concurrency Invariants Through Medieval East Asian Logic
On a less medieval and more ancient basis, from the original 白馬非馬 ("A white horse is not a horse.") we can derive the following suitably high-gravitas philosophical truth-revelatory statements:

競態非態 ("A race race condition is not a condition.")

釋後非釋 ("Use-after-free is not free.")

隱後非隱 ("Things hidden are not.")

單向交接非交接 ("A one-way handoff is not a handoff.")

contingencies··on Silicon Valley Is Transforming the Military-Industrial Complex
Inter-national wars are fought with technology, so this makes sense. However, I believe from an optimist perspective that ideas of global citizenship and environmental awareness / macro humanism are already in the post-formative, snowballing stages of disrupting nationalism, and without an anachronistic national affinity amongst the citizenry, countries are objectively becoming obsolete.

Wireless broadcast media, PSTN, air travel, international post, international financial networks, global supply chains, the internet have all contributed to this, but AI will drive it home: AI governance in particular. Once one nation adopts it, the benefits will be obvious and expand rapidly. Few yet realize how transformative the changes will be.

contingencies··on Extinct Tasmanian tiger's 'snap' unlike any living mammal's bite
Very importantly, the biodiversity of mature old growth forest is exceptionally distinct to a bunch of 20 year old (often single or few species) trees. Take parrots for example. Many rely on old trees with openings or hollows for nesting. Without sufficiently old trees, they literally can't live there. The growth of such critical habitat often takes 100+ years, whereas fungi, reptiles, orchids, insects, and bryophytes may never recover from clear-felling.
contingencies··on 100s of flights cancelled at UK airports due to ATC issue
Sorry wouldn't fit ;)
contingencies··on Extinct Tasmanian tiger's 'snap' unlike any living mammal's bite
If you're not someone's flamebait LLM bot: citation please. I find it very hard to believe that an endangered species chooses to live solely in recently planted forest, particularly with focused legal defense from such an esteemed and long-running NGO as the Wilderness Society. I find it far more likely you are incorrect, and frankly spouting nonsense.

There is nothing 'advanced' and 'sustainable' about clear felling old growth forests supporting endangered species, if you are lucky enough to have them as Australia is (they are vanishing globally at an insane rate). It is about as nuanced as shooting your children in the head.

contingencies··on Extinct Tasmanian tiger's 'snap' unlike any living mammal's bite
The government of Tasmania is still allowing logging of the forests which is utterly insane. See for example this current court case: https://mailchi.mp/wilderness/swift-parrot-court-case
contingencies··on Private German rocket makes history, reaches orbit from European soil
all the questionable ones are in Tesla

Let's not also forget that NASDAQ changed the rules right before listing SpaceX... resulting in forced index fund procurement of sinking equity. Not sure how 'public policy' that is (arguably separate), but in reality global prime market listing rules are pretty high-significance effectively Federal or even international monetary policy. Well done Elon! Can't fault you for execution!

contingencies··on Asahi Linux on M3
Me too, M4 and keen to run Linux, partly because every damn system update bloats the system by 20GB but no memorably useful novel feature actually emerges and partly because it's long term stable. That said, at this stage in my career I appreciate a working system that doesn't require umpteen kernel recompiles!
contingencies··on Show HN: Fly By – retro biplane flying game
For further inspiration, check out Wings of Fury, an old DOS game. https://www.myabandonware.com/game/wings-of-fury-ta

Apparently a newer 'inspired by' successor is https://store.steampowered.com/app/1371710/Rogue_Aces_Deluxe...

contingencies··on Private German rocket makes history, reaches orbit from European soil
Musk was raised affluent in apartheid-era South Africa, his father had some connection to Zambian emerald trading/mining, and Musk's companies have benefited enormously from public contracts and policy. He's not stupid.
contingencies··on The Real Luxuries In Life
One thing that surprised me as a parent is that watching kids grow up provides significant introspective reflection which is nourishing in a different kind of way.
contingencies··on How the Disaster of "Forever Chemicals" Was Kept Secret
Seems as good a reason as any to nationalize it, have the shareholders forfeit their chips at a steep loss, and ensure its remnant facilities only produce socially positive, safe products.
contingencies··on How the Disaster of "Forever Chemicals" Was Kept Secret
Also, we are in the middle of insect biodiversity freefall. Summary: A global meta-analysis covering 166 surveys at 1,676 sites between 1925 and 2018 estimated terrestrial insect abundance fell about 0.9% per year on average—roughly 9% per decade, 24–25% over 30 years, or about 50% over 75 years https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aax9931
contingencies··on The Computer Museum of America reclamation project
Conveniently located in outer Eindhoven!
contingencies··on How bicycle coaster brakes work (2018)
On resiliency, most people cycle tour with disk brakes. This is primarily because the additional weight of the luggage adds inertia to a downhill scenario necessitating a larger braking surface and better torque control. Whether using vee or disk brakes, you still get redundancy (two wheels means two brakes with two separate control systems) and any experienced cyclist is familiar with compensating for the loss or relative efficiency of two brakes in a failed, fouled or poorly tuned state. Occasionally adjusting a brake is not a big issue, nor is changing a brake pad. Packing a spare set of contact pads is normal in touring.

Few cycle tourists seem to optimize for using navigation tools or holding cameras while riding. Oldschool Europeans used to mount maps on their handlebar bags, but I haven't seen that in yonks. It might be common on a short-hop or produced-for-youtube thing, but to my mind it's not really the same mental space as touring, which anyone who has done it would understand: long distances, often daily goals or pre-nav, strong engagement with topographic change and natural environment = ~no need for while-riding lookups. Sure, if the road is well-surfaced and there's nobody on it, or it's a phone-photographed quickie: go for it. But unless it's a fleeting moment, most people I know would stop, have a drink, perform any lookups, maybe take a photo, then set off again. F=ma. Luggage means you have relatively large m. Fiddling with your camera while riding can be a bad idea.

contingencies··on How bicycle coaster brakes work (2018)
Retired cycle tourist here: Australia, China, Laos, France, Romania, Taiwan, Thailand.

This is interesting, I recall having some of these as a kid.

I'd say the key drawback not mentioned is that, in many riding conditions (such as but not limited to riding when in close proximity to vehicles, riding in high wind, riding in proximity to severe drops or road discontinuities, riding with heavy loads, riding downhill with luggage encountering sharp bends, repositioning legs for a hard ascent, etc.) you cannot always freely alter your physical stance to apply additional pressure to the braking system (as it may upset other concerns) nor can you afford a short latency to reposition to your stronger leg before applying the brake (or a short burst of climbing on difficult terrain).

So while functional in most conditions, I'd say they are in fact objectively inferior in terms of latency and control and thus safety and utility in many realistic conditions.

What could be an improvement (and may have been made already) is a speed-gated clutch, that is to say, slow reverse is permissible but a burst above the gate speed enables braking. This could solve a minority of the issues in terms of control at the cost of complexity.

contingencies··on I turned my security cameras into an automatic bird identification system
Two rainbow lorikeets just had sex 2m from my breakfast table. I think there's a substantive distinction in avian fauna density.
contingencies··on I turned my security cameras into an automatic bird identification system
110 detections over 7 days? Here in Sydney I would expect >110 detections per day!
contingencies··on Malleable software = solid bases and custom code
Those who don't understand Unix are condemned to reinvent it, poorly. - Henry Spencer
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