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confluence

3,806 karma · joined December 3, 2011

The world is more complex than you think it is.
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confluence··on Jeff Bezos Responds to the Amazon NYT Article
Don't pay enough and a shit working environment.

The rest make larger gross margins, so they can afford not to treat their employees like a massive cost center.

confluence··on NSA announces plans for transitioning to quantum resistant algorithms
Stop messing with my head.
confluence··on Google’s $6B Miscalculation on the EU
I'm sure you say you do.
confluence··on Google’s $6B Miscalculation on the EU
I didn't say it was illegal.

They just didn't do the groundwork.

And I'm sure copying maps is illegal.

Place information? Hmmm. Maybe it should be too.

confluence··on Google’s $6B Miscalculation on the EU
Scrapped the data most likely
confluence··on Tech startups are taking on the oil business
You've just made my point.

A kilo of meat uses many times its weight in water, grain and fuel to produce. The same goes for many manufactured goods, my device included.

But domestic electricity usage of a computer? Yeah, that's immaterial and makes the point poorly.

confluence··on Tech startups are taking on the oil business
I think we've concluded in this thread that bright minds used in any significant capacity can be a dangerous threat to society at large.
confluence··on Tech startups are taking on the oil business
I know you're trying to make a point, but it's poorly done.

Domestic energy use is in no way comparable to industrial use which comprises the vast majority of the contribution to global warming, specifically factory farming, heavy industry and transportation.

confluence··on U.S. Was Warned of System Open to Cyberattacks
Pretty sure it makes you a liability everywhere.

Plenty of white hats have gone down for reporting publicly.

confluence··on Rise of the Machines: The Future Has Lots of Robots, Few Jobs for Humans
Good riddance to jobs.
confluence··on How an Amish missionary caused 2014's massive measles outbreak
People used to line up for vaccines back when we first had massive distribution. The horrors of the diseases they prevented were so great the lines would go on for blocks.

People are insulated from those times. When those diseases don't seem so scary anymore, people start to worry about what they're getting injected with. Teaching people about how vaccines work seems to be one solution, but another one is a horrifying outbreak that shocks people.

The growing anti-vax movement is a danger to everyone, and they're a powder keg ready to explode.

confluence··on Tesla Is Working on Robotic Snakes That Emerge from the Wall to Charge Your Car
If you can't beat them, build them.
confluence··on India Orders 32 Websites Blocked, Including GitHub, Archive.Org, Pastebin
Someone has made a huge mistake and should be fired over this.

Utterly ludicrous.

confluence··on Lazy Expert Syndrome
Why invent a new marketing buzzword name for what everyone already calls complacency?
confluence··on Peter Thiel: Uber is most ethically challenged company in Silicon Valley [video]
> I just question the extent to which people seem to vilify them.

The government needs software like Palantir. So I think they're on par with say Lockheed.

confluence··on Peter Thiel: Uber is most ethically challenged company in Silicon Valley [video]
I've always speculated that unethical managers will outperform ethical managers under non-life threatening conditions.

For example, being unethical at say a chemical company will lead to the end of your company in that area after a catastrophe. Being unethical at a payment processor and the worse that can happen is someone doesn't get paid on time or at all. So in that situation dumping the customer complaints saved a bunch of resources at little cost, since the customers would be back, PayPal was pretty good compared to their competition, leading to them out executing eBay and getting acquired.

I AM NOT saying that I agree with this. I'm just thinking about the why behind it.

confluence··on Caltech professor claims Israeli spy infiltrated JPL
Man you should've seen the stuff the Israeli's pulled back in the 1980s.

> Speculation about Milchan's involvement in arms dealing and intelligence activities was sparked after the indictment in 1985 of Dr. Richard Kelly Smyth, an aerospace executive and scientist who had made illegal shipments of Krytrons (nuclear triggers) through one of Milchan's companies.

...

> "at least through the mid-1980s [Milchan] was a full-fledged operative for Israel’s top-secret intelligence agency, Lakam. His activities included "buying components to build and maintain Israel’s nuclear arsenal" and supervising "government-backed accounts and front companies that financed the special needs of the entirety of Israel’s intelligence operations outside the country.". Interviewed regarding Milchan's intelligence activities, Israeli President Shimon Peres stated: "Arnon is a special man. It was I who recruited him.... When I was at the Ministry of Defense, Arnon was involved in numerous defense-related procurement activities and intelligence operations. His strength is in making connections at the highest levels.... His activities gave us a huge advantage, strategically, diplomatically and technologically."

-- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arnon_Milchan

He's a multi-billionaire Hollywood producer nowadays (Argo, Fight Club, etc.)

Ah the windfalls of state backing.

confluence··on On the phenomenon of bullshit jobs
It's only malfunction is being poorly funded. The definition is not meaningless. Companies are pretty socialist.
confluence··on A free, complete guide to Technical Analysis
> A bullshit signal can be used to reliably make money.

Until it doesn't.

confluence··on On the phenomenon of bullshit jobs
> Government services like these do not equal socialism.

Well, they definitely aren't capitalist.

confluence··on A free, complete guide to Technical Analysis
Sorry, I read your statement too quickly. Missed the "weak". I thought you meant EMH holds (as I stated above).
confluence··on A free, complete guide to Technical Analysis
> forecasting prices based on past data

By your definition everything is technical analysis.

Which makes your definition useless.

confluence··on A free, complete guide to Technical Analysis
> You can take the opinion of someone that has walked the walk, or not.

In opinions we trust? What kind of a trader are you?

> I have been a trader for 15 years, I have seen "go all in on a bunch of calls" absolutely working and I have seen it failing.

That sentence is basically void of content.

> I have given you a specific example where TA does work, so it can't all be bullshit right?

No. You could give me an example of homeopathic medicines used shortly before someone goes into remission.

That doesn't mean that cures cancer.

confluence··on A free, complete guide to Technical Analysis
Just because I said that technical analysis is bullshit does not mean that I think EMT holds.

I can also say that using the times bulls shit in Colorado to predict stock prices is bullshit. That once again does not mean that I think EMT holds. It just means that the technique I called out has no predictive value.

confluence··on On the phenomenon of bullshit jobs
> Every day before dawn, brave men and women of different races and backgrounds rise as one, united by a common cause. They march together in formation, kept in step by their voices joined in song. These workers leave their communal housing arrangements and go toil together “in the field.” While they are out doing their day’s labor, their young are cared for in subsidized childcare programs. If they hurt themselves on the job, they can count on universal health care. Right under your nose, on the fenced-in bases you drive past on your way to work or see on the TV news, a successful experiment in collectivization has been going on for years.

-- http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/04/21/troops-of-t...

> The military is innately hierarchical, yet it nurtures a camaraderie in part because the military looks after its employees. This is a rare enclave of single-payer universal health care, and it continues with a veterans’ health care system that has much lower costs than the American system as a whole.

-- http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/16/opinion/16kristof.html?_r=...

I'm surprised this isn't obvious to most people.

I also find libertarian soldiers extremely amusing.

confluence··on A free, complete guide to Technical Analysis
> Like most things in life, it isn't quite that simple.

Like most things in life, technical analysis is bullshit.

> There are real inefficiencies in the market which can be highlighted by TA. TA can also be considered a form of Statistical Arbitrage and vice versa.

Stat arb is not what is commonly known as technical analysis. They are distinct.

> A simple example: There are many traders out there using TA, if sufficient numbers of them start following the same signals then real market impact occurs. You can use TA to establish what signals they are using and then front run them. This shows that TA has real power in some circumstances and there are many more out there.

Keynesian beauty contests do not provide consistent alpha. If they did, we'd see fewer VCs flame out.

confluence··on A free, complete guide to Technical Analysis
Gotta keep the plebs trading. How else will they make bank?
confluence··on A free, complete guide to Technical Analysis
> It's not complete bullshit

The fact that line even has to be used is a massive red flag.

> overwhelming statistical confidence for each of the patterns using the data set of all S&P 500 stocks daily for the five year period 1992-1996.

And tech VCs investing in anything from 1995-2000 were positive with an overwhelming statistical confidence that their portfolios were anything but randomly chosen.

confluence··on On the phenomenon of bullshit jobs
That answer is complete bullshit.

> In the United States, socialism is virtually nonexistent.

Except for Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security and Unemployment.

And don't forget the military.

confluence··on A free, complete guide to Technical Analysis
Funny, I read this is as a free and complete guide to the effects of confirmation bias.

A free and complete guide to bullshit is just bullshit.

Technical analysis is a farce.

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