There is so much leverage in the economy that an abrupt shift towards anything approaching Volker-level rates would mean a catastrophic level of defaults in all sectors. By keeping rates so low for so long what they've really done is paint themselves into a corner.
The best case I see is that they raise rates by 1-2 pct and accept a few years of elevated inflation followed by a gradual normalization towards a long term mean. I really don't believe hyperinflation is a big risk.
Agreed on YT Kids, it's a lot of garbage with very little educational value. But what's wrong with Disney streaming? My 3 yo is allowed to play with a tablet for a few hours per week, locked so he can only access Netflix, Disney and a few games.
It's possible to walk a middle road here. My 11-y.o. daughter has a smartphone, but I use parental controls so she can only use apps for a certain amount of time each day (I chose 1 hr on weekdays, 2 hrs on weekends). This makes it possible for her to engage with her peers online, but also protected from becoming totally addicted.
Are you guys even parents? Because you sure make yourselves sound like experts.
The truth is I know my kids will make absolutely terrible choices if I leave everything up to them. I myself made a lot of bad choices growing up with unsupervised internet access. And on todays web it seems the pitfalls for a curious young person are even deeper and more plentiful. I'm simply trying to spare my kids some of the same problems I suffered by providing some guardrails until they are older and more mature.
Very helpful to control their apps and give them a daily screen time allowance (1 hour on weekdays, 2 hours in weekend). I don't like the idea of my 11 year old spending days and nights on e.g. TikTok, not to mention browsing for porn. Also useful to have the ability to see where they are, although I don't use this feature too much.
I'm guessing I can't rely on the Kaspersky software I have on my phones to stay in service. It's a shame, SafeKids has really been helpful in monitoring my kids.
> I'm a loner by nature, so I can't imagine where I'd be if I hadn't settled down. I just know it wouldn't be as good.
I'm the same way, and spent many years of my twenties living a very lonely existence. Getting a family was the best decision I ever made. I'm absolutely certain I'd be in a miserable place otherwise.
Self-driving cars, yes, but I'd say AI/ML in general reached at least level 3/4 at some point over the past few years. Seems to be cooling off a bit these days, though.
Note that when SOFR starts to fluctuate, you wont know your actual interest payment before the end of each payment period, since these rates are applied on a daily basis, in arrears.
Right-wing American libertarians in particular have this simplistic view that government control over anything is the root of all evil. Therefore the decentralized aspect of crypto must seem like a wet dream.
I believe the system where a semi-independent central bank has the ability to regulate the currency of the country is a good thing on the whole. It's the best balance of compromises we have seen actualized.
Having a fixed supply of digital coins seems more like a return to the old days where there was a fixed supply of gold and silver coinage. And that era was called the dark ages. A system with fractional reserve credit is much more conducive to economic growth and prosperity.
A non-inflationary currency promotes hoarding. The biggest whales in crypto own a huge chunk of the total supply, even more so than in our current fiat system. How you think such a system does anything but worsen wealth inequality is a mystery to me.
'Zooming out and seeing the big picture' seems to mean buying into a libertarian vision of the world where the current money system is horribly broken and blockchain technologies are a viable and superior alternative. I profoundly disagree on all points of that analysis.
Without an on-ramp and off-ramp for converting into dollars/euros, Bitcoin is entirely useless, even for the hardcore idealists like yourself. And those can quite easily be made illegal.
Human beings are also designed for aggression towards each other, yet we generally try to control those parts of our 'savage nature' in modern society.
Torturing defenseless animals is not an inescapable facet of human nature. It's something we choose to do and be OK with.
What could pop the bubble then would be a sharp reversal of this type of policy, like a return to 1980s-level interest rates. But they have zero incentive to go that route, as far as I can see.
> Use of natural gas by households is dependent on the availability of natural gas network
and price (Figure 5, Figure 6). Out of 21 000 surveyed households, 41% were using natural
gas (for all purposes, including for heating, water heating and cooking purposes). The
share of natural users by house type was as follows: 45% of urban apartments, 50% of
urban detached houses, 31% of rural apartments and 31% of rural detached houses.
Majority of the households in the western regions of Kazakhstan rely on natural gas due
to the developed gas pipeline infrastructure and low gas prices.
You make a valid criticism. The estimates I've used are likely upper range. But even if we're off by a factor of 1/2 (which I don't believe) I feel the point being made still stands.
It also seems the increase in hashrate coincides with China banning Bitcoin mining? That likely puts a skew on the numbers, although I'm not immediately sure which way.