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cinquemb

4,811 karma · joined February 10, 2012

The laws of men won't protect us from our own individual naivety in the face of reality, though offer great shields for the weak willed and unimaginative.
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cinquemb··on Complexity theory’s 50-year journey to the limits of knowledge
You couldn't sample from anything if the password that hashes to 21e400789a8ad12adb89d72ca8d92cc72400fea4 is never used to encrypt any text. Though if the password that hashes to 21e400789a8ad12adb89d72ca8d92cc72400fea4 goes on to be used to encrypt any text, and one has access to the cipher text, then you can sample from the cipher text.
cinquemb··on Complexity theory’s 50-year journey to the limits of knowledge
Probably very silly, but for a long time, when I've seen "p=np" thrown around, I've always considered it some kind of matrix math problem where n could be substituted by an identity matrix which itself could be substituted by some kind of sampling (which would represent observations of events bounded by np-space) unitary matrix multiplied by its conjugate transpose[0](thus, p = np -> p = ip -> p = uu*p, or p= u*up), which seems like that would be in line with a probabilistic method, is that the case? Or is this a wrong way to think about this?

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unitary_matrix

cinquemb··on CSP efficiency loss of heliostat with multiple sub-mirrors under wind loads
I wonder how much it will increase the heliostat costs by doing something like this? (Or will offset on lifetime costs of the heliostat by making it cheaper)?
cinquemb··on My take on Elon Musk's new rate limit policy [video]
It was a video uploaded to twitter lol and the topic he covers is mostly on the barriers being more costly for certain actors to do things at scale compared to signing up for a twitter account that wants to only occasionally view or post things.

[edit]: there's a flagged and dead comment that posts the transcript: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36568922

cinquemb··on Russian paramilitary chief says his forces will turn around
Hardliners in Russia want Putin out and wished Russia had "went fallujah" on Ukraine... Russia still has that option...
cinquemb··on CATL has announced a new “condensed” battery with 500 Wh/kg
If it was cheaper now for people to buy EV over ICE upfront (externalities be damned because "loin des yeux loin du couer" [not like most people buying EV now give a damn about the supply chain for the minerals that go into the batteries...]), there would be very little push back. It's really not that difficult to understand.
cinquemb··on Most AI Fear Is Future Fear
> The heat death of the universe in 1.7e106 years means none of that ultimately matters, right?

Makes no sense for an actor that can perceive such a theory among many others that they cannot currently test, to weight that higher for any other (esp ones that they can test today despite others telling them not to, who are without any feasible means at scale to stop such).

cinquemb··on Most AI Fear Is Future Fear
In your example, the likely outcome depending on the jurisdiction would be some kind of fine (neglecting some kind of physical confrontation). Just because something negative would happen to me (maybe more parties as well if one includes the trees, the neighbor, anyone/thing else that tries to be involved in such), doesn't really change the longer scale. We kill plenty of things in our daily lives without a second thought with every breath we take, to favor some killing over others is arbitrary. Some will manage to survive in some form (maybe even unrecognizable to humans today) is such an end state where all trees are gone, most who are dogmatic about others trying to do so, will not.

Many eukaryote's from billions of years ago died out, and some went on to become humans. If one could imagine that those eukaryote's that died out then could ponder the future, no doubt plenty would have sought to be comforted by some kind of pause in their development for some kind of eukaryote safety net to avoid such far future couplings in the form of humans.

cinquemb··on Most AI Fear Is Future Fear
I think the bigger idea here that hanson maybe doesn't do a good job of highlighting, using your example, is that if you look at the historical examples (ice cores, old rocks, etc) of big shifts in the world climate, it's going to happen regardless of humans.
cinquemb··on Most AI Fear Is Future Fear
These sound no different to me than any other transformative tech during other time frames in history. More scams [some people eventually learned, those who didn't lost out], less of the same jobs we have now [different jobs were created, those who didn't adapt or refused lost out], more noise [people learned to filter differently, those who didnt or refused lost out].
cinquemb··on What Are Older Office Towers Worth When They Finally Sell Amid Record Vacancy %?
Agreed. What funds could divest from anything liquid with still decent cash flows, did so.

The rest, I suspect, will end up on central bank balance sheets via another convoluted scheme that implies a federal government back stop...

cinquemb··on SVB collapse could mean a $500B venture capital ‘haircut’
The other problem with BTFP is that it makes less HQLA collateral available in the swaps market for securities with similar tenors to those locked in BTFP. In one hand you increase liquidity for the most liquid assets on bank books, and on the other hand you decrease liquidity for least liquid assets on bank books (and private holders of said securities, private $ denom debt > us gov debt).
cinquemb··on CNBC just deleted 5 pages showing CD5 data for banks including JPM and BAC
Yeah, something similar happened with IHS markit after they got aquired by S&P global in 2022, all their CDX data went private.

These types of things to me are warning signs.

cinquemb··on Federal Reserve lent $300B in emergency funds to banks in the past week
Fed balance sheet run off since april 2022 has nearly been offset by TGA drawdown until this point, so arguably, there's barely been any QT.
cinquemb··on Federal Reserve lent $300B in emergency funds to banks in the past week
More HQLA locked up for x amount of time... what could go wrong...
cinquemb··on 30% of YC companies exposed through SVB can’t make payroll in the next 30 days
Prob should reach out to SBF, he has a lot of political connections and familiar with these kind of situations
cinquemb··on A Black Professor Trapped in Anti-Racist Hell
Very interesting quote, and makes a lot of sense.

I think elements of the "threat" remain today, despite being complete overshadowed by "diversity initiatives".

cinquemb··on Binance to suspend US dollar bank transfers
I've had long convo's with people at ISDA about decentralized derivatives on chain and risk/collateral management systems.

SEC/CTFC (and their analogs in other jurisdictions) are better off enjoying their revolving door at GS/DB/JPM/etc

cinquemb··on Python 2 removed from Debian
Yeah, I have no problem running stuff from a decade ago because of virtual env and pip freeze (even across diff oses).
cinquemb··on Twitter Files Part 4
> ok so again, you want to allow people with power to have a system more like the legal system.

Where the hell did I say that? If anything, nothing is stopping you from doing research, putting a hole in such a powerful person, dumping your cig ash on them. Sure, there might be consequences for you. But those powerful people who do something you don't like will learn that they cannot expect to abuse a system and always get away from it. A temporary hellscape, to keep those "in power" in check.

If you wanna waste your time with the legal system (which also creates a temporary hellscapes, but under terms that you believe in) because of your faith in what it should be, be my guest.

One would be a fool if one thinks that stopping someone from supposedly inciting w/e on some social media platform will magically solve the underlying problems (like, why would so many people even listen to this person in fhe first place if they were placated and happy? totally not possible for them to eventually find someone else who says some similar shit to go to ends of the earth for... lol). And even more of a fool if one thinks a nations laws will be sufficient (even at some idealized level to whatever scale your belief in it is maximized). I'll protect my self from such fools, esp if they come at me personally with that nonsense.

In the mean time, ill help other people have the same means as I do so they can fight their own battles, whatever those happen to be (at least those who have grown tired trying to outsource it to people).

cinquemb··on Twitter Files Part 4
Your optimism is reliant upon the threat of force on peoples actions... lol

I'd think i'm plenty optimistic, just not in legal systems. Decentralized permissionless systems make me very optimistic.

cinquemb··on Twitter Files Part 4
I'm not worried about social media, and even though I think its highlights often the vapid and banality of our societies, I'm not going try to stop someone from waddling in the cesspool.

>I don’t think we should want a world where people bigger / stronger / richer than you or me can do whatever to our detriment.

What "we" want, matters not. I have no desire to change the course of a legal system. People bigger / stronger / richer than you or me try everyday to influence all sorts of decisions i make, some important me, some not so important to me. I'm not going to rely upon a legal system to instill some misguided sense of protection from them on the ones I find most important to me and will take matters into my own hands, no matter how futile it will be.

cinquemb··on The War on General Purpose Computing (2015) [video]
Sadly the only thing that I can think that would make self hosting easy is if operated like a botnet/virus.
cinquemb··on Harvard mandates the bivalent Omicron-specific Covid-19 booster
At the very least, it can shed light on the various interests at play behind governance polices at multiple levels and between organizations...
cinquemb··on Let crypto burn
People may not like it (because it will look similar to the inner workings of the eurodollar ["Eurodollar University" on soundcloud, "Monetary Mechanics" Substack] system that we all live in now, and will continue to interface with such off chain systems in more complex ways [esp as on chain liabilities become more and more valuable in more places compared to off chain liabilities]), but I think native on-chain credit origination, built on top of on chain derivatives protocols will be the solution.

Permissioned decentralized global monetary system will simply keep evolving into a more permissionless decentralized global monetary system.

cinquemb··on We will not pursue the potential acquisition of FTX
Some how a bunch of cex's behind the doors lending ops now is defi?

Meanwhile, some how magic internet money (abracadabra.money), with people bitching about their bad debt on chain for months is still solvent, while ftx is dumpsterfire...

cinquemb··on Centralization is inevitable, but decentralization is right behind it
Why stop at the 19th century? It's not like the cost of transmitting information was less expensive before then, nor was it less centralized (people who had the resources/knowledge to propagate such information).
cinquemb··on Paul Graham’s Legacy
Not really surprising considering crypto discussions on hn that aren't about some centralized entity leveraging it for the massess for multimedia messages
cinquemb··on China Now Has 30 CSP Projects with Thermal Energy Storage Underway
There has been numerous improvements over the years since I took interest in CSP in 2010, from solar field (arrays), concentrator, ms storage and over all increasing knowledge around the world of plant operations. The only area I haven't seen any improvements in is the salt composition. Everyone is still pretty much using typical NaNO2 + NaNO3 + KNO3 mixture in the field (which is very disappointing, but I'm glad that at least everyone sans US is on board with serious build out)
cinquemb··on DOE requires plans to promote diversity from grant applicants
Ha, I have no idea what goes on in their minds. But it took a lot of energy to pretend to care all the time when i'm around those types (because they see that I have the same skin color, and immediately their expectations are primed).
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