Please tell me where you are from that you're being oppressed by US right now, not 10 years ago or 100 years ago.
Also, US isn't the only democracy in the world (it's actually a representative republic, but anyways).
74 karma · joined September 7, 2021
Also, US isn't the only democracy in the world (it's actually a representative republic, but anyways).
There are more democracies being threatened by China than just US.
Also, do you have anything to refute my comment?
> lived there
China is fast devolving into dicatorship's way of life. 2+ years away is along time.
> keep in contact with many friends
Those friends are afraid to say anything negative to a foreigner living outside the guo on a platform closely watched by the government
> consume a lot of TV and podcasts from there
Government approved safe and patriotic contents
You have to be a native citizen who is living there 10+ years to understand
Diversification is already happening - 20,000 foreign companies have left China in the last 4 years. Samsung, LG, GoPro, etc.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lk6lkW4A7Ec
> China is a big part of their future market
The Unemployed and semi-unemployed might reach 300M+ people in China. Chinese consumer market is slowing down big time - Lost decades just like Japan
- You cannot travel abroad (no passport issued for average citizens, except for those that study/work abroad)
- You cannot go beyond China's intranet legally (VPN is technically illegal in China). VPN services keep getting slowed/banned.
- You cannot transfer much money out of country legally (50k limit a year, but you end up going to bank 10+ times just to be able to transfer 10k)
- You cannot watch Spiderman, BTS, squid game, porn and many many more things legally
- You have very little rights as LGBT
- You have to work 9-9-6. Which is why many citizens are lying flat (not working/pursuing marriage)
- You are constantly watched, monitored, "invited" to police station for tea, banned for posts that contain any words that are on the growing banned list
- You should not get rich (1/3 of billionaires have died or disappeared). The state discourages showing off wealth
- You have little recourse as a woman who is abused by men in power
- You are constantly subjugated to random mass covid testing, standing hours outside in the cold
- Oh and there's the yearly flood + shoddy buildings + crashing economy + crashing real estate + aging workforce + factory jobs leaving + dictatorship
终究怀揣的不安，是愈来愈近的丧钟声
True. It used to be 50k limit per year. Now because many bureaucratic procedures by banks, it might as well as be zero since you have go to the bank 10+ times. You're talking from a view of a foreigner. I'm talking from a view of native citizen.
> Money and superficiality have always being huge in China
Not so right now which is what I mentioned.
China bars celebrities from showing off wealth and 'extravagant pleasure' on social media
https://www.businessinsider.com/china-bans-celebs-from-showi...
> there have been recently a huge push back from the goverment about this.
Doesn't mean anything has changed. Just lip service.
> You cannot go beyond China's intranet
Of course I know about VPN. However, The official stance of the Chinese government is that the use of VPNs is prohibited except in strictly defined cases. https://review42.com/resources/are-vpns-legal-in-china/
You visited a few times huh? I was born and lived there for 30 years.
- You cannot travel abroad (no passport for average citizens, except for those that study/work abroad)
- You cannot go beyond China's intranet
- You cannot transfer money out of country legally, pretty soon can't invest in other countries's stocks
- You cannot watch Spiderman, BTS, squid games, porn and many many more things legally
- You have very little rights as LGBT
- You have to work 9-9-6. Which is why many citizens are lying flat
- You are constantly watched, monitored, "invited" to police station for tea, banned for posts that contain any words that are on the growing banned list
- You should not get rich (1/3 of billionaires have died or disappeared)
- You have little recourse as a woman who is abused by men in power
- You are constantly subjugated to random mass testing
- Oh and there's the yearly flood + crashing economy + crashing real estate + aging workforce + factory jobs leaving + dictatorship
终究怀揣的不安，是愈来愈近的丧钟声
Pressure on tech and other industries in China: Xi Jing Ping will officially be a dictator, come party congress 2022. Tech and real estate are industries owned by the oligarchs of Shanghai faction, which is against Xi Jing Ping.
Even more societal lockdowns: In the last few months, there were silencing of a #metoo incident, scrubbing of a famous actress from internet, removing discussions of evergrande bankruptcy, and disappearing/reapperance of alibaba's ceo. Look for more of these.
No war attempt on Taiwan in the near future: between real estate collapse, economic decline, coal shortage, food shortage, inflation, huge debts, and covid waves/lockdowns, CCP won't have any appetite.
Suicidal war attempt on Taiwan: CCP may get desperate when riots broke out, or need a victory to focus its citizen's outrage elsewhere. Then they'll face the combined forces of western countries, and will have to suffer through economic sanctions.
Evergrande bondholders say they have not received $148m interest payments https://www.ft.com/content/88dcb535-3945-4138-b394-dda82292b...
Basically, selective default by Evergrande. Full official default likely very soon, and for most of the Chinese real estate companies.
加速加速加速 更快看到结局
I keep seeing this argument. Let me explain why Taiwan will be free from China's attack for the next 30-50 years (long enough for Xi JinPing to expire)
- US protection. If there's one thing both parties in US agrees on, it's against China. Biden just emphatically committed protection for Taiwan and peace in the south east Asia. There are many US warships sailing up and down Taiwan straits. There are many military deals and cooperations with Taiwan. TSMC is a critical part of the world's electronic supply chain. Taiwan is a critical part of the island chain strategy to contain China, since it acts as an unsinkable carrier against China.
- China's military is only starting up. It doesn't even have capability to produce its own jet engines or carriers. Its strength lies in the large # of soldiers, which have to be transported. And its large # of ships, which are mostly coast guard/civilian level, and can be sank relatively easily. China's military is about 3-4 generations behind US, and currently is no match for the 10X power from US and its allies
- United democracies. US and its many allies are now coordinating naval exercises in the Region. Japan. Australia. India. UK, France, and Germany now have warships in the region as well. South Korea and Taiwan are now increasing its military defenses. These firepowers are 90% of the world's military right now.
- Taiwan as a fortified island. Fortified islands are hard to take, as evident in the modern war histories. There are only a few times in the year that China can safely cross the straits without fearing typhoons or rough sea. And landing only on a few spots. Especially if the island is armed with the latest war technologies from US, and has the missile capability to strike Beijing, or the three gorges dam which will then wipe out millions of Chinese. Taiwan is now producing domestic submarines, long range missiles, and ship missiles. You'll want to remember that Taiwan has very sophisticated electronic capabilities, so the arms it is starting to produce will be very good.
- China only gets one shot at attacking. After which, it will get economically sanctioned into oblivion by the world economies. Because otherwise Japan, South Korea, and other island nations near China can be attacked with similar attempts as well. Since China mainly imports most of its resources, and is export focused, it will sank into a deep economic depression filled with local riots.
以前大陆民众被灌输的是“血浓于水”的观念，其实并没有了解李登辉以来台湾的真实变化，等到两岸口岸开放，大家可以自由往来的时候，现实的观感和预期落差很大，自然产生了矛盾。从台湾人的观点来看，大陆的提升对他们产生了威胁，态度发生改变，加上过去三十年来的灌输，对中国大陆的认同感低落和仇视也是什么出乎意料的事。台湾俨然成为美国的战略桥头堡，整个局势到如今无可挽回。
Also, let's not forget CCP is the reason why North Korea still exists and why Vietnam is still a communist country.
- Iran attacks Iraq, and China/Russia gives support? Would Nato/US still have the stomach to go back into Middle East? This would allow China to fully utilize its full ground army force and massive train network that now stretches into Central Asia and Europe. And if Iraq falls, Saudi Arabia, United emirates should fall easily, and those are oil countries that will give China massive resources and wealth. US is fairly self sufficient in terms of oil resources, but not Europe! Europe, under gas and oil resource stranglement, will acquiesce to any demands from Russia + China.
- Turkey attacks Greece on grounds of islands contestations. Again, this would allow China to fully utilize its full ground army force and massive train network that now stretches into Central Asia and Europe. After Greece, Russia can easily retake most of its former colonies, and give China a way into Central Europe.
I keep seeing this argument. Let me explain why Taiwan will be free from China's attack for the next 30-50 years (long enough for Xi JinPing to expire)
- US protection. If there's one thing both parties in US agrees on, it's against China. Biden just emphatically committed protection for Taiwan and peace in the south east Asia. There are many US warships sailing up and down Taiwan straits. There are many military deals and cooperations with Taiwan. TSMC is a critical part of the world's electronic supply chain. Taiwan is a critical part of the island chain strategy to contain China, since it acts as an unsinkable carrier against China.
- United democracies. US and its many allies are now coordinating naval exercises in the Region. Japan. Australia. India. UK, France, and Germany now have warships in the region as well. South Korea and Taiwan are now increasing its military defenses. These firepowers are 90% of the world's military right now.
- China's military is only starting up. It doesn't even have capability to produce its own jet engines or carriers. Its strength lies in the large # of soldiers, which have to be transported. And its large # of ships, which are mostly coast guard/civilian level, and can be sank relatively easily. China's military is about 3-4 generations behind US, and currently is no match for the 10X power from US and its allies
- Taiwan as a fortified island. Fortified islands are hard to take, as evident in the modern war histories. There are only a few times in the year that China can safely cross the straits without fearing typhoons or rough sea. And landing only on a few spots. Especially if the island is armed with the latest war technologies from US, and has the missile capability to strike Beijing, or the three gorges dam which will then wipe out millions of Chinese. Taiwan is now producing domestic submarines, long range missiles, and ship missiles. You'll want to remember that Taiwan has very sophisticated electronic capabilities, so the arms it is starting to produce will be very good.
- China only gets one shot at attacking. After which, it will get economically sanctioned into oblivion by the world economies. Because otherwise Japan, South Korea, and other island nations near China can be attacked with similar attempts as well. Since China mainly imports most of its resources, and is export focused, it will sank into a deep economic depression filled with local riots.
Huarong and evergrande are just the tip of the iceberg. If you wish to know what all the things fester below for CCP, here's a very timely summary video from laowhy86, one of the YouTube expert on China https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RpwtZLzDM_o
Unfortunately you will not find many outspoken Chinese native citizen on YouTube, for they all fear CCP retribution, even living abroad.
恒大暴雷 市值两万亿的中国第一房企 居然对付不出400亿 如同一个万元户 被400块给逼死了 房企都要塌了 房价还没跌 建筑商的商票拖欠 银行的债务拖欠 私人借贷也拖欠 房子卖出去还收的是全款 不知道这些钱都到哪去了 魔幻的时代 魔幻的故事啊
I would strongly disagree there.
- china law blog https://harrisbricken.com/chinalawblog/chinas-cultural-revol... has mentioned that now their audience is in agreement of opinion that CCP is becoming increasingly authoritarian and less tolerant of foreigners and foreign businesses. as a result, a lot of their business clients are saying "they will never go to China ever again"
- global equity funds exposure to china and kong kong has collapsed https://www.ft.com/content/daa7a70c-23fb-467a-b245-f57bd47f6... from 0.5% in 2011 to -1.0% in 2021
- Lehman moments with rescuing hourong, and evergrande about to collapse
- CCP obfuscates any official economy numbers, so you cannot judge their economy based on official numbers. You have to see what actions the CCP is taking. And right now they are making crazy moves.
- 赵薇 (Zhao wei), a very famous and popular actress in China, was recently scrubbed from the internet. Her work, including movies or tv series she produced, were scrubbed from streaming platform like Tencent. Her follow feature on Weibo was disabled. Pages that used to mention her now have blank space where her name used to be. This is part of a broader crackdown alongside tech, education, effeminate men, celebrities, etc. Some of these efforts have to do with reducing the foreign culture effects that could lead to discussions about western ideals like freedom or democracy.
- English is deemphasized in classrooms, even in Shanghai. What follows is now 'Grandpa xi Jing ping thoughts', for students as young as 6. The thoughts comprises of 14 principles that promote communist ideals.
- An unknown blogger named Li Guangman (李光满) posted claim that revolution is in the air in China, with profound transformation to be felt by all. https://chinamediaproject.org/2021/09/01/profound-transforma.... This post was spread by official party media websites, no doubt in support of the current CCP agendas.
- All this is in the backdrop of xi jing ping attempting to get his 3rd term next year. That will cement his legacy as the most powerful man since Mao, and his dictatorship for life.