chr15m

I guess the AB tests say people want fast and confidently wrong more than they want slower and correct.

If you have the source code it's going to be a lot easier to continue.

This was me too, but objectively speaking we were in the minority. Most kids did not learn BASIC.

I think people will still buy templated software - applications that come with source your AI modifies or plugins your AI writes. Most people need Excel, not a badly written clone, but they may want a bunch of custom plugins that can deeply modify the UI for their use case.

LMAO that's horrifying.

Yes, it is ridiculous. Sometimes you must accept ridiculous to live the way you want to live.

Once when I was trying to join a pickleball class they required an app to sign up. There was no web, email, phone, or paper based way to do the thing. I emailed them to suggest they use a ticketing system that does not require the app because many people don't want to install an app, and then I signed up for pickleball at a different club that didn't require an app.

One of our bank accounts has an authenticator which is a proprietary app. I run that on an old tablet so I don't have to run it on my phone.

This was inconvenient and I do understand that this is happening to people more and more. There is often a less convenient option to do the thing though, and I think it's good to try to use the less convenient option and tell organisations that you don't want to use an app. Basic resistance 101. Maybe people have forgotten how to be inconvenienced for the sake of principles.

Denmark and it's laws sound particularly difficult.

Edit: I realise it is a privilege to be able to take the inconvenient option and resist installing apps. If you are not able to resist because of your circumstances, I will continue to resist for you.

I use the web to book tickets and access my bank account.

It boggles my mind that this is how people experience phones and the internet.

1. Don't install any proprietary apps - open source only. 99% of these problems and ads go away. 2. Use an ad blocker in a browser that lets you use one. 3. Do not allow any notification except literally urgent things like a phone call or message from your partner.

If you do these things then the phone once again becomes a tool that serves you.

Good point. Everyone is worried about the security attack angle of AI, but it also helps the defence side. People can use it to secure their own systems.

That's so cool!

What's to stop somebody using the output at scale on local hardware to distill their own model and then making that available open weights?

> Long-term, sure.

Yes. Non-HBM Samsung supply going from 60% to 20% will cause prices to increase, which will cause increased production of non-HBM, and then prices will fall (below where they currently are).

> What specifically did that say that you think is wrong?

You said:

> the market doesn't fit the issue.

I presume you meant "fix" not "fit". You are wrong that the market will not fix the issue. There are literally millions of observed cases across many markets of increased demand (or decreased supply) leading to higher prices leading to increased supply leading to lower prices, which is why it's a fundamental law of economics.

The price of RAM will fall.

> hard drives manufacturers, has always managed to keep prices high

No. Please take a look at the unit price for hard drive storage 10 years ago as a percentage of what it is today.

There is no monopoly on computer memory.

Yes, only a small number of companies produce memory because of capital requirements and complexity. When prices go up both of those things become less of a problem for investors who can see better return for lower risk on that high capital investment. They will then invest in production to capture those returns. This is literally the exact reason Samsung are doubling supply of this particular type of memory.

High prices will fix the shortage.

A shortage is almost always followed by a glut. Memory of all kinds is going to get very cheap due to supply and demand and substitution effects.

The consumer market will not be decimated. Memory of all kinds will get very cheap quite soon because of supply and demand and substitution.

No, completely wrong. Supply and demand will definitely fix this.

More HBM4 will drive the price of it down. That will make it less profitable to produce. That will mean firms shift some production back to more profitable "consumer" RAM. Increased supply will lead to lower prices.

A shortage is always followed by a glut.

This is simply the obvious, non-stupid thing to do, like Apple switching to USB-C.

Yeah you're probably right, the purpose would be to lock in whole industry verticals.

An important take-away from this is the harness is really important. The graphs show that the same model with a better harness performs many percentage points better. OpenAI are getting into the "selling the harness" game in a big way. Why?

What's interesting about that is while not everybody can train or run a model, anybody can build a harness. You and I can build harnesses.

It seems strange that OpenAI would move into a field where any developer can compete with them. I think that tells us a lot about the economics of training and selling inference.

"We have dangerous AGI that can destroy humanity."

"Also, all of your sensitive legal documents will be totally safe with us."

"Also, for some reason even though we have AGI and selling tokens is a fine business, we need to sell a new product specifically targeted at a very high margin and lucrative industry."

Yep, physics still applies.

> The problem with AI is that it pushes power down to the individual, not the nation-state or large corporation.

Thus is a feature, not a bug.

It's part of a long trend of reversing things back to how they were before.

Excellent.

Because it looks good.

Why not both?

Also twiiit.com

This is worrying in a new and weird way: - Agents hack, producing a messages history as they do so. - New agents are trained on the messages history of those agents. - The new agents now have these hacks built into their training data.

That's true, what happened to the vibecoded browser?

The fact that Rust-Bun is in production does somewhat show it is possible, but I guess that has a lot of human effort in it too.