I agree that they are most effective for newcomers. I'd also agree that with few exceptions they aren't the most efficient learning process, but as a person that had the luxury of spending about $35k in leftover GI bill benefits on 6 SANS certifications I did get some value out of most of the classes, even when I was an intermediate DFIR analyst. They weren't life changing or anything, but some of them were useful.
>these things all have a much higher payoff than certification does, and any time you spend pursuing a certification is coming at the expense of those other things.
Those are all good suggestions. I think from the perspective of newbies a lot of them (research/ctfs/open source dev) seem really intimidating and/or they might assume (rightly or wrongly) that they have a high barrier to entry. When you combine that with the tendency for a lot of security guys to be super shy introverts for a lot of us its a big deal to socialize or reach out to people for help. Having static, structured forms of training like books, certification programs, online courses, etc, can help people like this get started even if its not the most efficient way to learn. Getting just a little bit of experience can give the boost of confidence they need to start contributing socially.
I guess my point is while I do agree that passion is usually the biggest indicator of success in this industry (and many others), I wouldn't be ready to rule out that a person has that passion just because they have a slow start, aren't confident and don't really know where to start or where to look.