cheriot

Something about large debts and widespread cheating makes me think we don't need so many students staying for 4 years.

Maybe more coop programs and less class time.

You seem stuck on the idea that real wages have declined within the last 10 years. Is this vibes or real data? Because nit picking data to justify vibes and dropping the thought there is dumb.

Gold is a market where price moves for reasons unrelated to price level. It was stagnant for decades because rich country consumers value it less and now it's on a run as the US weaponizes the monetary system. It's just not useful to represent inflation over the last 10 years.

Housing is even worse. Unlike dollars and gold, every house is unique and in a different location. It's one of the least useful parts of CPI for the same reason it's a worse deflator on it's own.

I use CPI because it's useful, it exists, and it has less problems than the alternatives on a 10 year chart. We're not comparing to a basket of hand sewn shoes and a horse from the 1820s.

My analysis was "Doesn't look so dire to me?" and I don't think the point you raised leads to a different conclusion.

I can tell you know the topic well, but we're at the same place CPI criticism always come back to: "It's flawed, but the alternatives are worse, don't exist, or in some way not practical."

Then what number would you use instead? A "correct methodology" that's not done is useless.

Complaining about CPI to defend using nominal values poorly is not improving the article's analysis.

Agree that measuring inflation is complex and expensive. It also glosses over devices getting new features and networks improving latency and bandwidth.

Unfortunately alternative measures are worse. Gold increased in price 37% in the last year. What does that tell me about the price of groceries? Housing prices depend on government committees approving what can be built where. We have no idea what a free market would produce.

I am in favor of apples-to-apples comparisons and viewing data points in context. Now sure how that has to with fiscal deficits.

> credit card debt hit an all-time high last year ($1.28 trillion, Q4 2025)

Let me inflation adjust that for you: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1XUpo. Even better, as a percentage of disposable income: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1XUpt

> real hourly wages, only 3%

Median usual weekly real earnings: Wage and salary workers: 16 years and over: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1XUpE. Doesn't look so dire to me?

Whenever I see someone quoting economic statistics I look them up on FRED and zoom out a little. Usually I close the article at that point. The "Ongoing collusion" table in this article is interesting, though. Capitalism breaks down without competition.

> By sending an email that repels all but the most gullible the scammer gets the most promising marks to self-select, and tilts the true to false positive ratio in his favor.

There's less need to identify the most gullible when AI drops the incremental cost of responding closer to zero.

While he was still living on his own, my grandfather struggled with people sending him scam letters in the mail. He sent a meaningful amount of money to obvious scams despite being a shrewd businessman all his life. AI will take these cons to another level.

Is there any way to help the elderly navigate this shift?

Agree with this. LLMs multiply the human user's ability. More ability, more impact!

Was really looking forward to that. Hope they publish.

Avoid the most dangerous situations by making sure LLMs with untrusted input produce output that's human reviewed.

Still makes an interesting way for, say, a former employee to poison the results.

Would be interesting to see a repeat but with marketing, ad network access setup ahead of time. And maybe an email throttle...

Like they did with solar panels, I suspect the goal is to dominate an industry and not need to subsidize it forever.

I’ll be impressed if somebody can make that work considering the vastly larger compute required.

Open-weight and OSS are wildly different and the article makes a poor comparison.

What's the incentive for the Chinese labs to continue releasing weights 5 years from now? It's not a stable equilibrium and cannot last.

- The lab spending large sums on research and training does not get the inference revenue to fund those efforts.

- Unlike OSS where a single volunteer can keep a project going, training costs run into the $billions.

- OSS is often a two way street where features and integrations are built that the original author benefits from. Open weight models are largely a one way street because the marginal benefit is so much less than training costs.

In the short term, it means Chinese labs can attract talent and, I suspect, funding from their gov. Similar to every other industry the CCP subsidized to take over.

What's the incentive for the Chinese labs to continue releasing weights 5 years from now?

In the short term it attracts talent and builds brand, but they make little money on inference to support research and training costs. Tin foil hat thinking: it also pulls inference revenue away from Antropic/OpenAI and a financial crises at those organizations improves the relative position of Chinese labs.

Is there a reason to think open-weight models are a stable outcome? Open source software provides a collaboration framework for engineers from many companies to work together. Model weights are mostly a one way street.

In addition to this article, I've seen well thought out assertions from knowledgeable people that Hormuz is far worse than the market thinks and the market just continues not caring.

Maybe they're both right? Horrible things can happen to oil importing economies without derailing the AI build out that's driving the US economy and stock prices.

I think there's a catch-22 where Trump will hold out as long as the market lets him and everyone in the market wants to look through him throwing in the towel.

Apple/Google make less money if they sell the data because their ad product would no longer have an advantage. So no, I don't think they do that.

The professions with the least negotiating power will have the most draconian "oversight". Imagine a cashier graded in real time on how many customers they smile at. Or tracking how many glasses in a restaurant are empty.

Wild to me that Bitwarden raised > $100m from VC. Seems like the kind of thing that would make a nice lifestyle business.

The enterprise version never went beyond password management so I'm not sure how this could have generated a viable ROI.

Better commit messages, better and more up to date docs, etc. It's not all slop!

Why would an investment manager choose a CIT over an ETF? I can't help but think there's additional fees being collected somewhere.

To adapt a popular phrase to personal finance, "If you don't understand the product, you are the product."

This seems like the kind of thing that the right kind of engineer could turn into a lifestyle business. Two mobile apps, two or three browser extensions, a server, and a marketing website. A lot of care for the core security decisions and a bunch of CRUD UIs.

I know I'm being "that guy" so tell me where this gets more complex than I think.

tbh, I do that with Uber/Lyft, too

Thank you, Sunnyvale man, for hitting this edge case before I do.

Interesting way to encourage competition for its competitor. A single, scaled self-driving company is a massive threat to Uber.

During peak hours Waymo is more expensive than standard uber/lyft - I don't pay attention to black/premium pricing. Off-peak the price can be comparable. I mainly check because my wife prefers it.

Anyone know how much harder water resistance gets with replaceable batteries?

Are there good hosted options that will not respond to non-judicial data requests?

Someone is going to say self hosted is better and I don't disagree, but there's limits to how much time I can spend on self hosted stuff.