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cfcef

453 karma · joined December 11, 2015

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cfcef··on SoundCloud could be forced to close after $44m losses
Your friend might want to look into Archive Team, then. See how well their current tools support a crawl of Soundcloud, that the documentation is up to date, plan out how a pre-closure crawl would go, and do a small test run to check that everything goes as it should.
cfcef··on Pull request acceptance of women versus men
I look forward to seeing this paper cited for decades to come as experimental proof of the misogyny of the tech community.
cfcef··on U.S. tells Google computers can qualify as drivers
That's averaged over weeks or months or however long it takes for repairs, and over however many thousands of cars pass by (the US drives trillions of miles each year).
cfcef··on New Ways into the Brain’s ‘Music Room’
So music is a superstimulus for learning?
cfcef··on The Error Model in Midori
It does not say it only took the name in 2012, it implies that it was named Midori by November 2007 when the name leaked, and if you are doubtful, you can check Google Books and find multiple published mentions of the MS Midori OS in books all dating to 2008 attributing it to other sources, such as a September 2008 article on Midori: https://redmondmag.com/Articles/2008/09/01/Will-Microsoft-Ta... in which there is no mention of it having been renamed recently. Since the web browser was first released in December 2007 according to WP and was extremely obscure, it is entirely probable that the OS was named either before or in total ignorance of the browser, and you are being a paranoid ass.
cfcef··on The Error Model in Midori
Midori, the operating system whose development he is retrospectively blogging about, began sometime around 2003: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Midori_(operating_system) and the name was leaked in 2007.
cfcef··on GitHub is undergoing a full-blown overhaul as execs and employees depart
Should this be considered an example of entryism, or just opportunism?
cfcef··on Xinhua op-ed: Why doom predictors always get it wrong when it comes to China
Exercise: imagine this was written in 1989; how many edits would you need to turn this into an optimistic defense of the long-term prospects of the Japanese economy?
cfcef··on Destroying worn-out cells makes mice live longer
No effect size?

> Mice whose senescent cells were killed off over six months were healthier, in several ways, than a control group of transgenic mice in which these cells were allowed to build up. Their kidneys worked better and their hearts were more resilient to stress, they tended to explore their cages more and they developed cancers at a later age. Eliminating senescent cells also extended the lifespans of the mice by 20–30%, Baker and van Deursen report in Nature on 3 February.

cfcef··on On Google's self-driving car acident rates
Do we expect computer assistance to make much of a difference? Right now they handle the easy tasks like highway driving which don't account for many accidents, as far as I know.
cfcef··on Bose's new beat
The saying is that no one on their death bed wishes they had spent more time at work, but there's always a counterexample.
cfcef··on Schizophrenia, Hubris and Science
There's also Neuroskeptic's hilarious argument:

> As for the “excessive synaptic pruning” model, it’s very far from new: it was proposed in 1983 and has since been discussed in 3580 papers. So it’s simply untrue to imply that Sekar et al. are the first to shine light into a biological “black box”

Yeah, people have been running their mouths for a century proposing hundreds of radically different schizophrenia theories. It's different to propose yet another one, and to show that one out of the hundreds is genuinely part of schizophrenia!

Contrarianism for the sake of contrarianism.

cfcef··on The Fermi Paradox Is Not Fermi's, and It Is Not a Paradox
Unlikely, as on the astronomical time-scales involved, that implies that some rare risk will eventually wipe them out - asteroids, pandemics, resource depletion, collapse.
cfcef··on The Fermi Paradox Is Not Fermi's, and It Is Not a Paradox
It's not clearly the point at all. If the solution to the Fermi paradox is 'they existed at one point but stopped before colonizing', then that implies they don't exist now and is why we don't see them.
cfcef··on The Fermi Paradox Is Not Fermi's, and It Is Not a Paradox
Fermi:

> ...technological civilization doesn’t last long enough for it to happen.”

Writer:

> Both York and Teller seemed to think Fermi was questioning the feasibility of interstellar travel—nobody thought he was questioning the possible existence of extraterrestrial civilizations

What happens when a technological civilization 'doesn't last long enough'? It stops existing.

cfcef··on The design of Britain's wall sockets
Are these advantages reflected in electrocution and house fire rates?
cfcef··on How to Raise a Creative Child. Step One: Back Off
Similar to how people mention the Terman study didn't enrol two future Nobelists because they just barely missed the cutoff and so this proves IQ tests are bunk.

It would have been much better to cite the SMPY longitudinal results for a meaningful idea of how child prodigies fare.

cfcef··on The Twelve Days of Crisis – A Retrospective on Linode’s Holiday DDoS Attacks
But think of all the efficiency & security by obscurity I would gain by implementing my apps in AVR assembly! Plus it'd be hosted in the cloud.
cfcef··on Tale of Tasteless Tomatoes: Why Vegetables Do Not Taste Good Anymore
It always astonishes me to see graphs of yields for all these different plants and animals skyrocketing upwards under the pressure of selection on additive genetic variation, despite their totally different biologies, lifecycles, and even optimizing for different things (egg vs milk vs muscle).
cfcef··on Chrome Cleanup Tool
That does surprise me. Chrome is a cross-OS application, it runs on Windows/Mac/Linux, right? And things like extensions are all internal to the browser. Why is a scanner for bad settings and bad extensions bound to a single OS?
cfcef··on Google achieves AI 'breakthrough' by beating Go champion
> Much higher (but still short of general intelligence, obviously) would be beating the best humans at language translation, proving math theorems, or answering factual questions phrased in natural language. Then, if and when computers can write novels which you'd prefer to read over the best human author, now we're talking.

There's a lot of similarity. Take math theorem proving, which is an active area of machine learning; the algorithms tend at the moment to look something like create a tree of possible theorems, then the algorithm tries to traverse down the tree towards the target theorem by evaluating each branch by the probability it leads towards the target. Because of the exponential explosion, it's very important to select good theorems to expand at each level of the tree, and the ML algorithms can learn characteristics of good intermediate theorems by learning on the existing corpuses of machine-checkable proofs, which gives them much higher success rates in reaching target theorems. So right now the best theorem-provers can already reprove a lot of existing proofs. But they're using stuff like SVMs last I saw, and were much less sophisticated than a deep q-learner.

Some links: "Theorem Proving in Large Formal Mathematics as an Emerging AI Field", Urban & Vyskocil 2012; "Mathematics in the Age of the Turing Machine", Hales 2014 http://arxiv.org/pdf/1302.2898v1.pdf ; "Josef Urban on Machine Learning and Automated Reasoning" http://intelligence.org/2013/12/21/josef-urban-on-machine-le...

cfcef··on Google achieves AI 'breakthrough' by beating Go champion
> Any chance DeepMind may publish some of the internals about how many instances were used, how computation was distributed

The computation requirements for training and running are given in the paper in both the body and the appendix details.

cfcef··on Google achieves AI 'breakthrough' by beating Go champion
When in March is the match? Will it be broadcast live?
cfcef··on Google achieves AI 'breakthrough' by beating Go champion
DeepMind does about everything in Torch, which is Lua. Although I'm not sure about Torch's distributed support, so the use of 50 GPUs and Distbelief may mean another language?
cfcef··on A small 2009 car demolishes a 1959 Chevy in a crash test [video]
Also consider line counts, driven by functionality demands. A Unix from the 1970s has a kernel with maybe <10KLOC? Linux is more like 15000KLOC. If due to bugs, Linux crashes twice as often as that old Unix, then on a line for line basis, each Linux line is still 750x more reliable on average than the old Unix lines.
cfcef··on Is Self Hosted Blogging Dead?
> Compare this to handwriting and uploading html files, and it seems like we've gone backwards.

But this isn't apple and oranges; a blog with themes and whatnot is much more sophisticated than the HTML CSS rendering defaults. IMO, a HTML page without any CSS is not that bad looking and you don't really need it. Heck, even a text file written with a little bit of care is perfectly readable.)

And the information overload isn't much of a problem: most people know immediately that static site generators aren't for them.

> Look at medium, and look at instagram. A slightly better publishing experience dominates.

Look at all the blogs using Wordpress, and everything written on Twitter and Facebook.

> And to further that note, how would you self host a photo site for mobile? Is that even possible? How would you begin?

I am not entirely sure what a 'photo site for mobile' is, but I am sure that it has no equivalents from before 2006 or so which you could claim it is harder or more complicated than, and I suspect that you could get 95% of the value from a static HTML page sitting on S3 containing a bunch of <img> tags and a 'viewport' <meta> tag that you copy-pasted from a StackOverflow post you found by googling 'how to make a mobile html page'.

cfcef··on Is Self Hosted Blogging Dead?
What is complicated about it? I'm not sure what you have in mind - there was never any Edenic period where you could run dynamic web blogs for free on your own server without any configuration or investment of time and dedication. All the old tools still exist, but better and polished by time.

Let's compare modern blogging to how you would have blogged in 1996, or when Berners-Lee launched the first documents at CERN, your workflow looked like 'write .html file, FTP to server, Apache serves static files to anyone who visits'. In 2016, your workflow, if you want to, looks like... 'write .html file, SCP to server, nginx serves static files to anyone who visits'. You can still write HTML5 by hand, it's not harder than original HTML (may be easier). You can write Markdown which compiles to HTML with no more fuss than 'markdown.pl foo.md foo.html' or 'pandoc foo.md -o foo.html'.

You don't want to run a server? That's fine, find a host like S3 and instead of 'scp', 's3cmd'. It'll cost you next to nothing compared to back then.

You want some sort of blog software? There must be a million which are not named 'Wordpress' and do not have endless security nightmares. You want static site generators? Likewise, millions. WSIYWG HTML editors? Likewise. Free hosting? At this point almost any large site offers blog-like functionality because hosting is so cheap.

But what is harder? If you want to run your own server, everything is infinitely easy than in 1996. Apt-get may or may not have existed in 1996, but I'm sure it was far less comprehensive and reliable than it is now. You can let your server run for many years without upgrading if you want, and when you do upgrade, it's a few commands. Why, you don't even need to compile a kernel or buy a server edition of your OS. It has never been easier nor cheaper to run your own website in a myriad of different methods. So what exactly has gotten 'so damn complicated'?

The reality is that most people, and especially casuals, do not care that much about high-quality publishing or control or reliability, and instead care more about extreme convenience and network effects, and often either have nothing to say or don't want to say it and so no matter how polished your static site generator is, they couldn't care less. As Yogi Berra said, "if people don't want to go to the ballpark, how are you going stop'em?"

cfcef··on Amazon Hires Homeless Workers, and Everyone Ends Up Disappointed
Ethical entanglement: if you try to make a problem slightly better, then by not fixing it entirely you are now to blame. Happens all the time: http://blog.jaibot.com/the-copenhagen-interpretation-of-ethi...
cfcef··on New military automated airdrops will use image recognition instead of GPS
> The testing of a GPS-free version of JPADS is yet another example of efforts to develop alternatives to satellite guidance. “GPS is very expensive to launch and operate,” Defense Secretary Ash Carter said during an April 24 podcast from Silicon Valley, according to National Defense magazine. The global positioning system, he said, “makes us vulnerable to attacks, it is impossible to use in the valleys of Afghanistan or in a big city [where signals are blocked], or in places where the signal is poor.” “At DoD, we worry about enemies jamming GPS signals.” Army Maj. Christopher Brown, who helps run the service’s efforts in position, navigation and timing, or PNT, told C4ISR & Networks last year. “Threats to military GPS have evolved and improved at a rapid pace — from a proliferation of small-scale commercial jamming devices that can readily be purchased on eBay to large-scale military anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) capabilities.”

So the real benefits here are: works in mountains, and future-proofs against better GPS jamming.

cfcef··on Fruit Walls: Urban Farming in the 1600s
> The pessimist in me says "because these things would last centuries with a little upkeep, and we don't build that kind of thing anymore".

They wouldn't. You're building miles of thick stone walls exposed to the elements, which you are deliberately forcing plants to cover as much of them as possible. The article and the followup hint at the repair and labor costs (note that the article is set in China):

> The decline of the European fruit wall started in the late nineteenth century. Maintaining a fruit wall was a labour-intensive work that required a lot of craftsmanship in pruning, thinning, removing leaves, etcetera. The extension of the railways favoured the import of produce from the south, which was less labour-intensive and thus cheaper to produce. Artificially heated glasshouses could also produce similar or larger yields with much less skilled labour involved.

This should not be surprising, since if fruit-walls were strictly superior, why were they ever obsolesced? In general, when reading sustainability fetish material like this, you should remember that these sorts of things are like code-golfing or min-maxing: schemes which place unrealistic value on just one dimension, and which can be highly interesting in how one maximizes that dimension, but are only rarely optimal under a more realistic set of tradeoffs. In this case, the fetish is for energy use while running, and mostly ignoring capital, repair, space, and labor costs.

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