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cf141q5325

1,546 karma · joined August 24, 2018

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cf141q5325··on How Inflation Works
I assume you mean "isnt continuing" But that also doesnt seem to be the case. The question apparently is where that money is going. As long as it remains outside of the real economy it seems to be irrelevant. And even if it starts seeping into the real economy, it seems that the efficient market hypothesis is more of a belief then anything else. Which is no surprise if you realize that market inefficiencies allow you to make enormousness profits. Especially if you need to be a certain size to exploit them
cf141q5325··on How Inflation Works
Inflation is inflation expectation. People (the market) starts behaving differently when they expect rising prices.

Best thing i read on the topic is how the Brazilian hyperinflation was fixed https://text.npr.org/130329523

Once you look at it from this angle most of this starts making a lot more sense. Especially post-Austerity monetary policy

edit: tldr: They invented a new theoretical currency. All prices were each month listed in the actual price in the old currency and the price in the new currency (that didnt exist yet). And each month the new currency was redefined so that stuff still cost the same in the theoretical currency. They did this for a few months till they declared inflation fixed and creating the new currency that had "proofed" its stability the previous months. And Abrakadabra, people believed and inflation was fixed through the introduction of the Brazil Real. Obvious when you think about it, its not called fiat currency for nothing.

>Say, for example, that milk costs 1 URV. On a given day, 1 URV might be worth 10 cruzeiros. A month later, milk would still cost 1 URV. But that 1 URV might be worth 20 cruzeiros.

>The idea was that people would start thinking in URVs -- and stop expecting prices to always go up.

cf141q5325··on Lidar industry unites to make roadways safer for pedestrians
He mentioned this as well ( and i forgot to) Could you elaborate on the implications/relevance? It seemed important to you and him.

edit: So is it lawyers being pedantic (no offense, its the job description after all) or is there an argument why the logic of criminal law would be more applicable here?

cf141q5325··on Lidar industry unites to make roadways safer for pedestrians
Not quite on topic, but most here will be familiar of the problem of autonomous cars and valuing the life of the driver vs that of a kid running in front of a car. (An autonomous car does have time to react, so do you crash the car, endangering the drivers or keep course and kill the child?)

I recently learned of a new perspective when talking to a lawyer and learning of his first reaction. Apparently here in Germany courts assume a certain degree of responsibility for an accident by you simply deciding to drive. So if there is a crash of two cars, it starts with a 50/50 culpability and the circumstances (who crashed into whom because of what) decide the final accountability. The argument is that you knowingly stepped into something with very well known dangers. You took a risk when stepping into a weapon.

The child didnt take any such decisions. As such you could (in theory) make the argument for suicide programming in such situations.

I only mention it because despite having talked about the scenario in university, this perspective never came up.

cf141q5325··on Guns, Privacy, and Crime
>We’re talking about people who won’t even jaywalk.

Come on man. This is a stupid stereotype.

To relate to the initial post, it is also very wrong that only police and the most dangerous parts of organized crime are armed. Germany has masses of inherited guns. They are just not visible. Breaking and entering are also a very real and common thing, although focused on when the owners are (presumed) away.

cf141q5325··on Double ridge formation over shallow water sills on Jupiter’s moon Europa
Its such an unbelievable sad topic. Especially since its quite clear that nobody will be stopped by this consideration. Just think of the drilling into the ocean below the Antarctic ice. Contamination is carelessly accepted by opportunistic bureaucrats.
cf141q5325··on Assume your devices are compromised
It runs counter to popular belief. The author makes however a good case for it going the way of "deleting cookies / using VPNs ... anonymizes you" soon. You get a while of "this is only theoretical" till one day its common knowledge.

I blame complexity btw. Burn it all down and we might be able to start over in rather acceptable digital stone age.

cf141q5325··on Even mild Covid-19 can cause your brain to shrink
Another gem from the article right at the bottom

>Although COVID-19 vaccines are highly effective in protecting against serious illness, they do not protect against "long COVID" in people who become infected despite vaccination.

cf141q5325··on How is the free firmware for the Raspberry progressing?
The interesting perspective i took away was how something like the raspberry pi shapes the market as a whole whether intended or not. See comment in the original discussion if you are interested.

In short, even if not through tax advantages, it is very hard to compete with a charity (or even the "free" open source developers it attracts as a results). As such it is difficult to imagine how a competing open source hardware would emerge. I found it interesting since there is no clear cut solution to this. Or even the consensus that the state is somehow bad, after all, having a raspberry is absolutely amazing. It just has consequences.

cf141q5325··on How is the free firmware for the Raspberry progressing?
Yes, i took away something similar, see the original discussion. I had big companies being able to sell at a loss as an example, but it boils down to the same thing.

I found it interesting because there is no clear solution to this, no "bad" party. Having something like the raspberry pi is obviously absolutely amazing. But being able to produce without a profit margin makes it hard to compete. And this of course shapes the market as a whole. Differently put, how are we ever going to get a open source hardware platform when any such project wont be able to compete with the raspberry?

cf141q5325··on How is the free firmware for the Raspberry progressing?
Shout out again to the interesting perspective on the topic from the IpFire Forum. Some excerpts:

>Now, everybody is looking for a cheap ARM board with performance and loads of features. The Raspberry Foundation is a charity that pays probably no tax at all, but somehow is selling lots and lots of boards at an absolutely “amazing” price.

>Amazing because nobody else in Europe can compete with them. Paying no taxes helps. The second step is that they have almost completely outsourced their software development. They call it Open Source-ed, but that is not the same.

>Over many years, there has never been a release of that piece of hardware that was supported by a mainline kernel. Neither Linux nor any other of the *BSDs. They simply do not care what software runs on it.

https://community.ipfire.org/t/arm-sbc-support-discussion/26... Post number 4

Earlier discussion https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30504615

cf141q5325··on Open letter from anonymous Ontario teacher (2021)
>All certified teachers in Ontario may be assigned to teach math up to Grade 6

for grade 7 and over you need a qualification in math, however, you can still be assigned, so

>Therefore, even a teacher without a qualification in intermediate or Senior Division Mathematics can be asked to teach math in those divisions.

and

>The Respondent’s evidence is that due to the competitive nature of teaching positions, newly certified teachers may find that the only positions available to them are positions that require them to teach math, whether or not this was their intention. When few teaching positions are available, new teachers will often take positions outside of the subjects or divisions on their teaching certificate.

From page 3 (points 13 & 14) of https://www.otffeo.on.ca/en/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2021/...

cf141q5325··on Open letter from anonymous Ontario teacher (2021)
https://www.otffeo.on.ca/en/news/ontario-court-declares-that...

Is the declaration in question. Anyone know what the "reasonable alternatives" mentioned are?

edit: The full document linked makes it look even worse. Facts 12 to 14 on page 3. There are no required math courses during the degree and new teachers are often assigned to teach math to get a foot in the door.

edit2: Apparently one of the alternatives are requiring actual math classes. See the comment by "542458" about what was currently asked.

cf141q5325··on Why the WHO took two years to say Covid is airborne
>“We’re really talking here about two failures, not one,” says Sandman. “Being reluctant to change your mind, and being reluctant to tell people you changed your mind.” Like other public-health and scientific organizations, the WHO “are afraid of losing credibility by acknowledging that they got something wrong”, he says.

Quite a good summary for the entire clusterfuck that was the pandemic response. I still cant wrap my head about the utter spineless idiocy. You dont loose credibility by acknowledging you were wrong, you do so by lying to protect your image despite knowing better. You being wrong isnt dependent on you acknowledging it.

And the worst part, the more they kept lying the more they created a vocal minority who heavily drank the coolaid loosing the ability to even consider that the god like apparatus could be wrong.

cf141q5325··on Samsung's latest Galaxy A53 is 33% slower than the previous Galaxy A52s
In case anyone else is wondering what causes the different models for different markets

>First, Qualcomm can't produce enough processor to fit in all of the Samsung's phones. Second, snapdragon is too expensive, especially if you buy it in other countries. So, Samsung only uses snapdragon in countries where Qualcomm sells them cheaper.

As well as wanting to be exposed into more markets

https://www.quora.com/Why-does-Samsung-use-Exynos

cf141q5325··on Germany has seized control of Gazprom Germania
Facts and opinion are rather easy to distinguish though. Its the shortest description i could find of the structure and mechanism in play. If there is a problem with that part, pls do share.
cf141q5325··on Germany has seized control of Gazprom Germania
Its a readers comment. But either way, you not liking the author doesnt mean the summary of the situation is untrue.

In case somebody can refute the explanation (or give a better one) of the Gazprom structure and motivation, i would be happy to hear the problem with it. As i see it, despite the rambling its a short and concise explanation of who does what why.

cf141q5325··on Germany has seized control of Gazprom Germania
Its the summary of the commentary. I dont think you can justify not mentioning that bias.
cf141q5325··on Germany has seized control of Gazprom Germania
I read a great reader comment on the topic (also in German so try DeepL) https://blog.fefe.de/?ts=9cb54d35

Its a political push and pull about who defaults on the existing contracts on gas import, seeing as Russia wants to be payed in ruble now, while Germany would prefer the payments to be stuck on a EU bank account as a form of reparation payments to the Ukraine. To prevent this outcome, Russia in effect might be liquidating the Gazprom Germania. With Gazprom Germania being the ones doing the actual importing. Over the last weekend there was a change in ownership of the Gazprom Germania to new unknown owners. So they might be already bankrupt. To prevent this, Germany is now seizing control of Gazprom Germania and might be on the hook to prevent an insolvency to not default on the contracts with Russia.

In short, the German government fucked up majorly.

edit: Check "throwhow"s post in this thread for a longer summary

cf141q5325··on Dead Hand
And they were renegotiation, a point in time where addressing such shortcomings was a real possibility. China is also not currently involved in reckless power plays. It was plain and simply better then the alternative.

We are stuck with people having an end of the species button and are left dealing with this somehow. There are two approaches, one is to do everything to prevent accidental triggering. You put a case over it and and agree to not make any sudden movements. Arms control is about giving both sides a clear picture that the other one isnt going to use theirs. In short deescalation, making sure nobody is getting nervous because we know that nuclear holocaust would be a bad thing.

The other is to use it as a threat. In short escalation.

It is quite clearly heavily escalating with the second approach in a time where the former is absolutely necessary.

Lets not sugarcoat it, such behavior is very much in villain territory. Its risking the end of the species for short term political power plays.

edit: Differently put, i am going to go out on a limb here and argue that increasing the risk for a nuclear holocaust is a bad thing. I havent seen many people disagree here outside of some posadist circles

cf141q5325··on Dead Hand
Yes, very much if you have inspector able to visit sites.
cf141q5325··on Dead Hand
In February Biden left the Russian Arms Control Talks in reaction to the Russian troop movements. They were discussing reinstating the INF. With intermediate range missiles like the SS20 and Pershing with especially short reaction cycles. Which we actually got rid of in the 80s.

Could you be more specific with treaty violations? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intermediate-Range_Nuclear_For... Has the tests for missiles with a disputed range

On a side note, when searching for it google also told me that the last policy round apparently allowed the first strike use of nuclear weapons https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2022-04/news/biden-policy-al...

cf141q5325··on Dead Hand
Friendly reminder that getting out of all those pesky nuclear arms control treaties meant a greatly reduced reaction time on both sides. And having 15 instead of 45 minutes to react to a detected launch makes errors naturally a lot more likely.

Nuclear war doesnt need crazy people on both sides ready to ride the bomb to end human civilization. It only needs sufficiently brainwashed bureaucrats who are stuck in the process of an apparatus that believes they have their hands forced to retaliate.

edit: And just in case somebody still has any delusions of efficiency left, most of those past cases of "almost ended the world" were down to one men who had the power and accompanying backbone to overrule and /or block a strike decision. With Vasily Arkhipov it was 2 to 1 for the "retaliatory" nuclear strike against depth charges aimed at getting them to surface.

cf141q5325··on Psychedelics May Ease Cancer Patients’ Depression, Anxiety
Thanks for the correction, i am obviously not familiar with the field. This was meant as an example of non-chemical cognition problems.
cf141q5325··on When Mongols Set Out to Conquer the World, There Was One Limiting Factor: Grass
> but because it was cheaper to train crossbowmen

And the difference was massive. It took years and years of dedicated training to become a good archer, something you start from childhood. The average peasant didnt have the time just do this on the side. As a result they were often handsomely paid.

Crossbows on the other hand could be maned by anyone and were usable in a few days. It was such a threat to the existing social order that the catholic church tried to ban its use against Christians for a while.

cf141q5325··on When Mongols Set Out to Conquer the World, There Was One Limiting Factor: Grass
>barbed wire

On the topic i recently watched an interesting documentary on the problems at the battle of the Somme in WW1 https://youtu.be/CbkJS5cLLOQ?list=PLhMDlPcDRBKQuhPC9Ifj2IL8L... ( ~15min segment)

A short summary is the British assumption that massive artillery barrage would destroy the German defenses and allow for British troops to walk through easily. Unfortunately they used shrapnel shot which did very little to the defenses and worse, left the barbed wire installations untouched. Advancing troops then got stuck and were mowed down

cf141q5325··on When Mongols Set Out to Conquer the World, There Was One Limiting Factor: Grass
Fascinating indeed, i am still looking for a book / timeline of dominant military doctrine throughout history. You tend to have years of evolving efficiency of doctrines and technologies till one day a hard counter shows up that changes everything.
cf141q5325··on Psychedelics May Ease Cancer Patients’ Depression, Anxiety
Have you read up on cognitive behavioral therapy? A short summary would be that a lot of it is caused by entrenched thought patterns and toxic routines. So a question of what input you process how. Its often not caused by chemical imbalances but what falsehoods you belief and what conclusions you draw from it.
cf141q5325··on Psychedelics May Ease Cancer Patients’ Depression, Anxiety
Kicked my alcoholism and depression almost 3 years ago on accident with a recreational mushroom trip on holiday. Still doing great in both regards.

Two short bits of information. First dont screw around wit this. Set and setting. Understand what will happen and better get an experienced trip sitter you trust. Give at least The Psychedelic Explorer's Guide a read.

And while my urge to drink is still completely gone you have to do some work when it comes to depression. From personal experience i can say it works on multiple layers. There is

* Giving you a short term point of reference you can later aim for (experiencing how not being depressed looks like)

* Making changes to your entrenched thought patterns more easy in the short term

* Allowing for more self reflection (i later learned the cognitive behavioral therapy aims at something similar)

First point also got me to look into meditation. Eckhard Tolles Power of Now describes the same experience through meditation. In the end its no surprise that Timothy Leary found the Tibetan Book of the Dead a great trip sitting manual. See Sam Harris Waking up for a rational explanation.

edit: After talking with a few people who had bad trips my personal pet theory is that your likelihood drastically increases if you are overly attached to your own perspective. To the degree that you cant really imagine that your perspective on reality could be wrong. Not that this is safe otherwise, but be very very careful if that describes you. You are the kind of personal for whom anything on the spectrum to ego death might be very unpleasant.

cf141q5325··on Kaspersky is declared a US national security threat and is banned by the FCC
Shouldnt i have the same concerns with software from the US? You dont really have to nationalize to force devs to push malicious code (looking at you Australia)
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