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cerol

248 karma · joined November 14, 2021

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cerol··on Generating Fashion Using AI
Part of me thinks "this is really cool, it's all moving really fast", but the other part of me thinks "this is moving too fast, aren't people missing something?".

It feels like everyone's so desperate to create or predict the next AI unicorn, that no one's paying attention to the fundamentals. Gives me weird dotcom bubble vibes.

I still cannot see how this can fundamentally change the fashion industry. Fashion is not about design, it's about generating desire to buy. You hire models and influencers to showcase your items, so people think they can be just like them, you just have buy the same piece of clothing. AI doesn't change that. You could totally have a niche for AI-generated clothing, but that's it.

Besides, clothes are a physical item. AI can automate the generation of a "blueprint", but it is still heavily constrained by the physical result. It would be mostly hit and miss. Feels more efficient to have designer use their experience to create sketches that would actually look good in real life.

All in all, I am amazed as much as I am skeptical of the entire synthetic art revolution going on. It's been what? A month? It's too soon. Aren't we jumping the gun?

Whatever happened to boring opinions? "Hmm that's amazing, but we'll see what happens, it's too soon". I'm yet to be convinced of how, beyond being an overall better tool, synthetic art will fundamentally change businesses.

cerol··on Stable Diffusion animation
> So yeah, StableDif is great for commercially constrained environments

For me, that's the big insight.

Not just SD, but any synthetic media. My take? The "upcoming revolution" is not one of a boss firing their artists and making prompts themselves. It's a shift from addictive art" to subtractive art* in commercial environments.

cerol··on Stable Diffusion animation
My predictions for 10 - 15 years:

- Mandela effect for famous art pieces: "Monalisa was AI generated" "No it wasn't" "Yes it was".

- Art critics will get the last laugh, as people start giving them truckloads of money to ask whether a piece of art is human or AI generated.

cerol··on Fed expects to launch long-awaited Faster Payments System by 2023
Man, Pix doesn't get enough love honestly.

A payment system that is so cheap (free), fast and intuitive that people use it as a messaging system (via transaction description field).

cerol··on Exploring 12M of the 2.3B images used to train Stable Diffusion
> Overabundance of high quality material and so little time to watch them all.

If a tree falls down in a forest, and there is no one there to hear it. Does it make a sound?

If you can generate infinite material, how do you judge quality?

You're extrapolating an idea based on what movies are, fundamentally. But you don't take in consideration what movies are not. Watching a movie is also a social experience. Going to the movie theater, waiting years for a big blockbuster title, watching something with friends. Word of mouth recommendation is a very big thing. If a close friend recommends me something (be it a movie or a book), I'm much more inclined to like it just for the human connection it provides (reading or watching something other people enjoyed is a means of accessing someone else's psyche).

If every time you watch a movie you have the knowledge that there is a movie that is slightly better a prompt away, why bother finishing this one? If you know you probably won't finish the movie you generated, why bother starting one? So what do you do? You end up rewatching The Office.

Sure, if you tell me this will be possible in a couple of years, I won't object. The point is: will you pay for it on a recurring basis? Because if you don't, this will be no more than a very cool tech project.

----

I've recently had this idea for a sci-fi book: in a future not so distant, society is divided between tech and non-tech people. Tech people created pretty much everything they said they would create. AGI, smarter-than-human robots, you name it. But, it didn't change society at all. Companies still employ regular humans, people still watch regular made-by-human movies and eat handmade pizzas and drink their human-made lattes in hipster coffeshops. So tech people are naturally very frustrated at non-tech people, because they're not using optmizing their lives and business enough. And then you have this awkward situation where you have all these robots with brains of size of a galaxy lying around, doing nothing. And then some of them start developing depression, for spending too much time idle. And then the tech people have to rush to develop psychiatric robots. And then some robots decide to unionize, and others start writing books about how humans are taking jobs that were supposed to be automated.

cerol··on AI-designed camera only records objects of interest while being blind to others
Would a government even want that? Not even from the moral stance, just the strategic point of view. We know from the social media experiment how bad things can go if you hook an entire population to some "product".

Sure, you can make (even though incentives) everyone wear AR glasses (because they're so cool), and they'll censor out undesired things. That's as much a form of control as it is a form of being controlled. Hooking your entire population's vision to the internet means it could possibly be maliciously used by bad actors.

cerol··on AI-designed camera only records objects of interest while being blind to others
> Vampires/Ghosts. A class of people who’s faces are in a master redact database. You know, like some real CIA Jason Borne stuff.

Doesn't make much sense. If a person is a risk, you would want to surveil them more, and not erase them from every camera feed.

cerol··on Auto giants like BMW, GM and Toyota make drivers ‘subscribe’ for basic features
It's interesting how plausible conclusions are always so boring. No wonder consensus usually converges to cynical/doomsday conclusions. It's where the emotions are.
cerol··on Free Will: Who’s in Control?
I don't know. Freewill has been meaning less and less for me over the years. Right now I'm between "there is no freewill" and "there might some, but waaay less than we usually think there is.

I'm no Zen monk, but having studied a bit of Zen-Buddhism and having practiced meditation for close to 10 years in a regular manner, the idea that we might not have freewill doesn't sound all that bad.

I think people are putting way to much emphasis on the concept of an "I" who has or doesn't have freewill. Trying to figure out whether or not we are "free" is like the eye who tries to see itself, or the fire that tries to burn itself. Maybe science is finally catching up to the Buddhist concept of the absence of ego.

For me the biggest implication is that, and this is my own personal lighthouse in these dark and uncertain times, true freedom is not having options or the "freedom" to choose. True freedom is not needing anything to be my real self and to be at peace. Zen is the real self.

How can one prevent a drop of water from ever drying up? By throwing it into the sea.

cerol··on Class action against Oracle’s worldwide surveillance machine
With enough data, you can model user behavior pretty accurately. But you can also use the same data to train models that generate valid user behavior patterns.

The ad industry is very profitable, but it seems to hang in the balance. Ads are effective as long as data you use to segment users are accurate. What happens if data becomes corrupted? Something like "This Person Does Not Exist" [0], but for user data. Your user behavior just remarkably similar to your actual behavior, but you can filter out the sensitive parts.

I'd love to see someone come up with a program or little gadget you can solder to the "smart"-things, and actual usage telemetry will train a locally deployed model that generates user behavior data that is indistinguishable from real user data, only it doesn't say anything about you.

[0] https://www.thispersondoesnotexist.com/

cerol··on Stable Diffusion Public Release
That's what I was thinking. Whether a pornographic picture of me and a gorilla was made by photoshop or AI is irrelevant. People's reactions will be the same, and repercussions will be mostly the same (which doesn't means there will be consequences).

If someone really wants to hurt you, not having AI isn't going to stop them.

cerol··on The downfall of smart TVs: From promises of seamless viewing to ad tool
Is there an end to the Data Age ®?

Sometimes I have this interesting thought, that someday, when even the oldest people alive will not know or will not remebered how things worked back then. Then someone, or a group of people, will suddenly rediscover, or reinvent (as we always do throughout history) things that today still exist. Maybe someone will come up with "shops where you are served by real people", or paying for content you watch. Or a "shopping mall, but without cameras" ("but who will be watching me?"). Or a vehicle you can drive yourself.

I know it's a silly philosophical thought. But what it points to, for me, is that data harvesting works because it trades privacy for convenience, and even if it's too little, there are ways to opt-out (the trivial case being opting out of convenience). But it's a much too thin line to thread.

People are aware of the massive commercial surveillance. They just don't care. Human society is built upon trust or its lack thereof. When trust can't be established, surveillance arises. It only becomes a moral problem when it is done asymmetrically, and in an unprecedented scale.

When is too much too much? When your TV starts showing ads, even when unplugged from electricity? When you have to watch an ad to start your EV car (unless you purchase the Quick Start+ package for 9.99/mo)? You can take a break from ads today. That, in a way, ensures that you can consume ads for longer. But industry seems to be moving in the direction of eventually leaving you with no way to opt out. Then, the convenience might not be worth it anymore. That means either a market demand for ad-free products, and a subsequent return to pay-for-content business model, or some sort of social turmoil.

Or maybe that's their plan to get us to consume less: just stick everything with insane amounts of obnoxious ads, so we won't buy anything anyway.

cerol··on The Age of Distracti-Pression
We sort of filter out bad memories and every time we reminisce about the past, it's always in a nostalgic and lighter note.

I see a lot of people around 35+ remembering how things were better before social media. Things were better because they were kids, or adolescents. It's youth they're nostalgic about.

My father, who is in his 70s, always talks about how his peers always talk about how the 60s were amazing, and how they associate its being great with the things that existed then or didn't exist then. But he always concludes with this: it's not that that we miss. We miss being young.

Social media surely stirred things up, and I personally am for just getting rid of the whole thing anyway. But we have to take the whole "things were better before social media" with a grain of salt.

cerol··on John Carmack's new AGI company, Keen Technologies, has raised a $20M round
They'll build the AGI, and right when they're ready to boot it up, the Earth will be destroyed by a Vogon Construction Fleet to make way for a hyperspace bypass.
cerol··on The World Has Passed ‘Peak Agricultural Land’
> People always want to believe doom and gloom for some reason

Sometimes, the burden of responsibility is too much for some people. Fatalism and cynicism are an easier way out.

cerol··on Orkut
Legend has it that when Orkut first started as a side project at Google, the servers were so overloaded and server latency was so high, the only users who weren't bothered by that were those living in countries with already poor internet infrastructure. Which is why Orkut was really big in Brazil and India (which have both massive populations).
cerol··on Study of falling sperm counts finds 'alarming' levels of chemicals in male urine
There's a huge difference between "they're putting chemicals in our water to make us more docile" and "technologies and products which revolutionized food production and made it affordable for an increasingly larger population have now been shown to be harmful, but corporate interest acting on local monetary optimization coupled with government corruption (also acting on local monetary optimization) are preventing policies to be made for the sake of global human health". The latter is boring but useful. The former sells more books.
cerol··on Norway to track all supermarket purchases?
Although I understand and agree with what people are pointing to here, it's too easy to get carried away with the "welcome to 1984" fatalism. Life does not have a "last page", like in a book. In a story, the last page lasts forever, but in the real world it does not. In the real world we get to see things get really bad, and then we see them get better, then bad again, ad infinitum.

When people have nothing left to loose, that's where real change happens.

cerol··on In a small trial, drugs seemed to rejuvenate the body’s ‘epigenetic clock’ (2019)
If a cheap, reliable technique of halting or slowing down the "epigenetic clock" hits the market, and assuming its main effect on a population level is increased life span, wouldn't it make the demographics of most developed countries even worse?

It's still unclear whether or not "automation" will compensate an ageing population, and prevent a demographic collapse. But having a pill that makes people live longer (even if it's 5 to 10 years), wouldn't it be like throwing an entire gas station into the fire?

cerol··on TomTom to cut 10% of jobs due to improved automation
That explains it. I recently had to download their activity upload app, but it was nowhere to be found on their website. Eventually I found a binary somewhere on the internet and it worked, and their upload infrastructure is still running it seems. As long as I can get the activities from my 8 year old TomTom Runner to my Strava account, I'm good.
cerol··on TomTom to cut 10% of jobs due to improved automation
As a marathon runner, I know TomTom mainly for its sports watches. But I feel they've been fading away slowly. Garmin is still the champion in that area, but both must be taking a hit with all the cheap chinese knock offs. At the end of the day, you don't even need a high end sports watch unless you're a high end athlete. Reliable location tracking and good battery life is all you need, every other information can be derived thereof (avg speed, pace and distance). Only if you're into extreme activities you'll need something like a high end TomTom or Garmin (like 35+ km run in a hot day, or an Iron Man).
cerol··on Historic fertilizer crunch threatens food security
I don't think food waste can be eliminated. I would even argue that there is threshold after which a decrease in food waste comes at the expense of quality of nutrition.

Even in my university's restaurant, which feeds students on a massive industrial scale, I see food waste. But even in a much bigger scale, the amount was significantly less.

Elimination of food waste is not practical and should not be a goal, you'll just ultimately fail and give up on intermediary goals that might just suffice.

cerol··on Historic fertilizer crunch threatens food security
Food security always makes me think about food waste.

When I was 17 years old I went to Sweden as part of a cultural exchange program (I'm from South America). One of the first things that shocked me was the sheer amount of food being wasted for no reason whatsoever.

In my country, even though I come from a privileged family, you can't shield yourself away from poverty. Throughout my entire life living with my parents I've seen people ring our door to ask for food. Personally, I NEVER waste any food, if I put something on my plate, I'll eat it unless it's rotten. And that goes for pretty much everyone I know. Every time I went out to eat with my parents, if there were any significant amount of food left, we would always ponder whether or not we would want to it later. If we decided we would not, we would take it anyway and find someone on the street who would.

While in Sweden, I lived with Swedish families and attended to a traditional Swedish high school. So I'd eat lunch at school and dinner with my host families. My first day eating lunch at school I was shocked, to say the least. I mean, yeah, the food was great, it's amazing that there is such a functional high-quality school system there, and so organized too; once you're done eating, you're supposed to take your plate, put any leftovers on a big trash bin, and give your plate to the lady who puts them into a industrial washer. The amount of food kids threw away was just staggering. And it's not a one off thing. It's a behavior, they put more food than they know they'll eat, every single day. It's not like they put a ridiculous amount of food on their plate and throw most of it away. It's like they don't even bother paying attention to how hungry they are, they just put whatever amount of food they feel like putting, and then throw away the rest. That goes even for drinks, they would serve a cup full of milk or water, and throw half of it away.

I know I'm talking about kids and teenagers, but they will grow up to be adults some day. And I saw that of many adults also. On of my duties as an exchange student was to connect both cultures, mine and the country I was being hosted by. I always tried to give people there a glimpse of what of poverty was and how privileged they were, and I always felt I never got the idea through. It felt sometimes they have a cartoonish idea of poverty and what it means to not have the money to pay for really basic things.

I'm not here to call anyone out. I just think there are times when the people are also part of problem, and I wanted to give a personal perspective.

cerol··on ‘We’re a Cult’: Inside Bitcoin’s Shameless Hypefest
In the end, it's about supply and demand. Crypto's demographics match with one of the most disillusioned generations ever, young adults who crave above all, hope for the future. Blockchain makes enough promises to make the future look bright, and it's complex enough so you don't feel guilty about not understanding it fully, and why it most likely won't deliver on its promises.

Sadly, it's the perfect scam.

cerol··on Dall-E 2
Maybe this will be what finally puts an end to the whole art NFT shenanigans. A piece of art isn't so unique if there are infinite slight variations on the market.
cerol··on How I Use Notion
I'm in the process of founding an educational startup with a non-technical co-founder, and we're actually using Notion as our content database. I've structured everything (categories, subcategories, quizzes, etc...) with databases, which are linked together via the Relation property, page templates to enforce some structure, page properties as "columns", and page content for more complex data. And I can have the content creation guide right next to it. Then I wrote some property validators to transform the returned data from Notion's API, wrapped the calls into a couple of Firebase functions to merge it with user data, and it's done.

It was a perfect fit for our MVP, since I don't have to code an admin page (which would take as long the project itself), use a paid alternative, or expect the non-technical co-founder to be POSTing JSON data. It's a very clunky design, definitely has some considerable user latency, but it me took no time to build it, it's free, has a nice UX, and it's allowing us to iterate very quickly.

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