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cc439

894 karma · joined February 25, 2014

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cc439··on How AMD Gave China the ‘Keys to the Kingdom’
High precision, high volume, low labor input manufacturing is much harder than you'd think and not exactly what China's economy specialized in until it became an explicit focus of the central government. The electronics and computing world outsourced everything to Asia back when those sectors were dirty and labor intensive. Manufactured items such as ballpoint pens (particularly the ball and tip which we the biggest stumbling block for China) were made with processes so highly automated and done so with decades of gradual refinement that there was no natural incentive for existing companies to invest in Chinese production facilities. Certain manufacturing niches were so competitive and easily optimized in the decades before global outsourcing became the rule that there were practically no benefits to moving production overseas and without the sort of "free" knowledge transfer that comes with such a move, there was no economic case for Chinese industrialists to try and build native capabilities from scratch.
cc439··on On Jony Ive Leaving Apple
>Consider iPhone 5c, for example. The colors are horrid, and when you add those Crocs-like cases it looks more like a Fisher-Price toy than like a device an executive would want to be seen holding.

Except Apple has previously found wild success in selling brightly colored devices down market, see the original iPod Mini for example. A selection of colors both appeals to the sort of person they are targeting with the lower end device (teens/young adults) while also preserving the marketshare of their higher end device by turning off the kind of older, more reserved buyer who might otherwise buy the less expensive option. There's also the entire Apple lineup in the early "Second Coming of Jobs" era with the iMac and, to a lesser extent, the Power Mac G3.

cc439··on Uber will start deactivating riders with low ratings
I'm betraying my ignorance but I thought SV/SF were relatively temperate climates. Nothing like Seattle, but still 50 low to 75 high most of the time?
cc439··on Uber will start deactivating riders with low ratings
I can understand that. Honestly, my experience with modern midsize sedans (Altima in particular, Accord, Camry, Sonata, etc) is that the manufacturers view the rear doors as throwaway areas for "engineering" weight out of the car. The rear doors on these cars honestly weigh about half what the fronts weigh and they fly open and close as if made of paper maché.
cc439··on Uber will start deactivating riders with low ratings
I think a one star rating is closer to "fire this person immediately" due to grave concerns.
cc439··on Uber will start deactivating riders with low ratings
I wonder how much that tendency is the result of Europeans having more exposure to "management by the numbers" kind of rating/review systems. Nearly everyone has held or known someone close to them with a job where a mostly meaningless customer review/rating/survey grade had an enormously disproportionate impact on their perceived job performance. The only times I'll ever rate something that isn't exceptionally good or exceptionally bad is when it is obviously tied to that person's performance metrics and they met expectations.
cc439··on Uber will start deactivating riders with low ratings
The CEL being on isn't enough for me to ding a driver but I've also never received an Uber ride where the CEL was on but the car was in otherwise top condition. There is definitely enough of a correlation between a CEL being on and the car having a blown suspension (bushings, struts, CV joints), some engine belt or accessory with a bearing about to fail, or brake pads so worn it's basically riding on nothing but the wear indicators (squealers). Sometimes I even get lucky and get all three.

Maybe it's reasonable to report the CEL in that situation since it's something most riders will notice and can easily be verified by Uber with a photo unlike the condition of the mechanical bits themselves.

cc439··on Uber will start deactivating riders with low ratings
That's why you should push doors/trunks/hatches closed and not throw/shove/fling them. I don't mean "push", as in close it like your closing the front door after sneaking home after curfew in high school. I mean it more like keep your hand on the door and slowly accelerate until you've given it enough momentum.
cc439··on Uber will start deactivating riders with low ratings
I guess it depends on what part of California you're talking about but all-seasons will generally outperform equivalent grade summer tires in the rain if temperatures start falling below 50-55° or so. A summer tire's grip falls off precipitously [1] when temperatures reach 40-45° but the loss of grip in that "NorCal winter" kind of weather can reduce their performance below that of all seasons. Just because they haven't lost a dangerous amount of grip doesn't mean they haven't fallen behind the grip available to a tire with a more temperature insensitive compound.

[1]: https://m.tirerack.com/tires/tiretech/techpage.jsp?techid=27...

cc439··on Uber will start deactivating riders with low ratings
>I just get in the car, keep quiet, and get out at the end (same as I've always done with taxis).

I am very much a talker and I was all about being chatty with drivers back when Uber was still a new thing. Several years later and I wish this artifact of a bygone era in ride sharing would go away. It didn't bother me when 100% of my usage of Uber centered around a responsible, sober ride to and from social events where myself and everyone in my party were in a social mood. Now that my usage of Uber is closer to a 50/50 split between a sober driver and "I just need a taxi to get me to work after dropping my car off for an oil change", I hate that one's willingness to socialize is considered a key metric for one's user rating.

Taxi ettitquette wasn't the most friendly thing in the world but it worked for a service that was most frequently used by people already in a bad mood due to some outside inconvenience.

Side note, I just checked and somehow I have a 4.95... I am definitely not that friendly.

cc439··on 4chan’s new troll campaign aims to make the hashtag a white supremacist symbol
Does anyone ever question the competence of the media based on their ability to fall for such obvious bait time and time again?
cc439··on Assange Indicted Under Espionage Act, Raising First Amendment Issues
>From what I gathered, this sounds more like it happened because he is somewhat grating as an individual, as opposed to a political statement.

All that means is the propaganda worked on you.

cc439··on Assange Indicted Under Espionage Act, Raising First Amendment Issues
There is such a thing as becoming a martyr but the most likely outcome is becoming another Michael Hastings or Daphne Caruana Galizia. It's all fun and games until you get killed before your story breaks or your proof of corruption gets buried under a pile of disinfo, FUD, and distraction and then you die "randomly" as punishment.
cc439··on Notre Dame is unstable: a strong wind could make the walls collapse, report says
That would simply create a gigantic greenhouse that would require enormous energy inputs to keep it habitable during most of the year. Not the most eco-friendly solution.
cc439··on One-Quarter of Working Americans Have Zero Retirement Savings
>(O)r as collectors items...

Any form of serious gun control is likely to include a grandfathering clause in order to keep it constitutional (beyond simply 2nd amendment issues). A few semi-auto firearms and other assorted "naughty" items like drum magazines are likely to be some of the best investments out there if things continue down the current path. AR-15s were selling for $3k during the AWB years and although the supply is several orders of magnitude greater today, a high quality AR will still appreciate massively in value under a new AWB. There is a large quality gap between the most common ARs (PSA build kits, M&P Sports, etc) and a high end one. In a regulated market with limited supply and bureaucratic hurdles to obtaining licensure, demand shifts to value the highest possible quality.

Just look at the firearm suppressor market for example. While they are legal, the effect of a $200 tax stamp and a 6 month waiting period for approval (caused by inefficiency rather than statute) means the market is almost exclusively comprised of ~$700 options designed to last a lifetime as any replacement requires going through the whole process again. If suppressors were regulated like other common firearms-related items, there would be more sub-$30 oil filter adapters than you could shake a stick at. Since that isn't the case, incredibly durable and costly machined titanium and stainless steel rules the day.

cc439··on French economist scours spreadsheets to find secret offshore accounts
>Pregnancy isn't something women do by themselves. There's going to be a man involved.

Plenty of women use sperm banks...

This is very much the exception and yes, a man is involved, but the transaction is 100% voluntary on the part of the woman without any specific intent towards that specific woman on the part of the man.

cc439··on French economist scours spreadsheets to find secret offshore accounts
Those are asset taxes (with the exception of Italy's 0.15% foreign investment value tax) and it's not hard to hide wealth in liabilities/investments. The über wealthy would barely be affected by such laws should they be enacted in the US while those most affected would be the unlucky few who managed to buy a family sized home in a Californian metro suburb and farmers. I know the "inhereted wealth (estate) taxes kill family farms" is a Republican trope but a tax on assets would disproportionately affect those who own real property and outside of the wealthiest urban centers and their elite suburbs, that would be people who own hundreds or thousands of "cheap" acreage. I have a friend who recently took over his family's 1,200 acre, certified organic dairy farm and a 0.75% asset tax would almost assuredly have him call it quits and sell off to a regional Wal-Mart-tier agribusiness. He only nets ~$100k/yr off of property assessed at $2m and lopping ~$15k/yr off his take home income would be enough incentive, in my opinion, for him to go back to hos $80k/yr industrial equipment sales job.
cc439··on AT&T promised 7k new jobs to get tax break, cut 23k jobs instead
There are still plenty of companies making exact change machines, they just put brand new ones in on my local toll road ~3 years ago.
cc439··on Diabetes complications soar in US, but not Canada, as teens become young adults
Medicare for all would do nothing to harm Big Pharma as the government is not legally allowed to use its monopsony status to negotiate prices under Medicare Part D (the section of Medicare that accounts for 85% of government drug spending). If anything, it would be a boon to Big Pharma as it removes barriers to access for an enormous number of new "customers". Interestingly, it was the Trump administration [1] who made the first move to allow the government to negotiate drug prices by loosening the restrictions against such practices for Medicare Part B spending (which represents 15% of government drug spending). I'm not saying the American right wing's approach is in any way comparable to the left's, I'm just saying that the left's approach suspiciously overlooks any solutions that might actually threaten Big Pharma.

[1]: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-07/trump-for...

cc439··on China defaults hit record in 2018, and the 2019 pace is triple that
China's recent support for Maduro in Venezuela, condemnation of the US for ending their exemption from Iranian oil sanctions, and their many energy related treaties and contracts they've signed with Russia over the past decade point to their understanding of this weak point. The Chinese have been making all the right moves in positioning themselves as an alternative to American hegemony for these energy-rich countries that have become targets for the American destabilization machine. I doubt there will ever be such a thing as the PetroYuan but the era of the PetroDollar might rapidly come to a close should China goad the Maduro regime into putting their oil industry's infrastructure up as collateral in return for Chinese investment in sorely needed maintenance, upgrades, etc for that industry.

China is the only nation with the financial means (even if it's all funny money as this article implies) to rebuild Venezuela's oil infrastructure that has been massively underfunded to the tune of tens of billions of USD a year for over a decade. The Maduro regime may be desperate enough to sign an agreement similar to the ones China has been offering African nations whereby a loan that will never be repaid is made with the knowledge that China will wind up owning the assets put up as collateral when the country in question eventually fails to meet their obligations.

cc439··on China defaults hit record in 2018, and the 2019 pace is triple that
As best as I can tell, the Chinese government's plan is to externalize the effects of all the debts that turn bad. At the end of the day, foreign investment in physical assets (factories, equipment, supply chains, etc) and infrastructure cannot simply be repossessed, especially under the auspices of a fiercely nationalistic and dictatorial Chinese government. If Chinese debt holders are no longer able to meet their obligations, the Chinese government will step in to secure the debts they hold and nationalize/seize whatever valuable assets are held by foreigners, effectively offloading all their financial problems on the rest of the world. What recourse will a company like Apple have against a sovereign nation no longer willing to play by WTO rules since they have grown strong enough to ignore all but the most sincere military threats?
cc439··on Eric Schmidt Steps Down from Alphabet’s Board of Directors
>they're not even attempting to play in the cryptoverse.

Which is a good thing considering how much of the population's life is already intertwined with and recorded by Google. I can't imagine anything more dystopian than a Google issued currency.

cc439··on Can Uber ever make money?
How much of that benefit is purely short-term though? In a hypothetical world where Uber and Lyft's current pathway to profitability never pans out, what are the ramifications. The most obvious one is that their fares will increase by 25-50% depending on the market, pricing them well above the legacy taxi services that existed before the arrival of these VC-backed companies. The second most obvious ramification is that many of those legacy taxi services have been run entirely out of business in smaller markets. My home county of 1m+ people is now down to 1 shady taxi service with a handful of ancient, beat up Crown Vics (last produced in 2011) and they only hang on due to the incredibly low standards for taxi regulation in our region. If Uber and Lyft fail or become far less useful due to cost increases, there are significant barriers to entry for a new, clean, and professional taxi service to enter the market as they don't get to play by VC rules and have to start a highly capital intensive (for a small business) operation by conventional rules while only being able to attract a customer base entirely through conventional means of marketing, and all at a very small cost advantage versus the ride sharing giants.
cc439··on An emerging black market offers Amazon sellers ways to cheat the marketplace
>For just $5, Seller Mafia will “brush” an account, which is when a product page is stripped of all information except its reviews and listed with a new product, which is against Amazon’s marketplace rules. This allows a seller to inherit a positive star rating and high ranking for a product without ever selling anything. So a shopper may see a four-star product like a jade roller, but the listing has had previous lives as a garage opener and a step stool to earn that average four-star rating.

Ah, that explains several incidents where I rebought a previously purchased item by searching through the listings in my order history, only to receive a completely different product (I once received lace underwear when rebuying a specific shampoo for example).

cc439··on Julian Assange arrested in London
>This is a government that undermines core liberal values like private property rights and privacy rights, with a multitude of financial regulations, surveillance state anti-money-laundering laws, and prohibitions on unrestricted use of encrypted communication.

That's the "neo" part of "neo-liberal".

cc439··on Phone Addicts Are the New Drunk Drivers
>My father has a good one for going around blind corners and going up blind hills at night: Check trees and other objects in the direct path of oncoming traffic for light.

Back in high school, I convinced one of my friends that I had a 6th sense for cars approaching on a long drive back home at night. My trick was that the light from a cars headlights slightly reflects off the semi-gloss black rubber of powerlines and we lived in an area where everything was still on poles. I never noticed this effect on tree leaves but the power/telephone line trick worked really well because a ~6 foot section would be slightly lit, presenting a very large (but thin) target for your eye to see.

cc439··on Why airlines make flights longer on purpose
>I also question the suggestions that longer published flight times mean more CO2 and there's no incentive for airlines to become more efficient.

>Just the other day I flew out of NYC and it took us 40+ minutes of being in a queue to take off behind 15-20 other planes because reasons.

That anecdote is exactly why the claim that there is no incentive for airlines to increase efficiency is so bogus. The vast majority of scheduling delays occur because of on-the-ground and ATC issues that are the sole responsibility of the airports involved. An airline can't do much to combat the inefficiencies that result from a notoriously incompetent airport and their inability to properly manage traffic so gates clear on time.

cc439··on Bank of America is raising its minimum wage for employees to $20
That sounds like more like your landlord is antiquated, not banks. Not only does Venmo exist as an all-inclusive payment option, every major bank (i.e. not a local one with <15 branches) I'm aware of supports or provides a similar service like Zelle which is used by Bank of America, TD Bank, and others. I'm able to live my life almost entirely independent of banking at a physical location with the rare exceptions being obtaining a cashier's check and withdrawing or depositing large sums of money. There are regulatory/legal hurdles surrounding daily maximum transfer, withdrawl, and deposit amounts as well as what kind of reporting is required for really large sums (like the check you get at closing when you sell your home for example) but this is also the case everywhere else in the 1st world AFAIK.
cc439··on Why Drug Prices Keep Rising Despite Congress's Efforts
>the pharmas can create the appearance of innovation and modest new revenues nearly indefinitely even when their pipelines are in actuality quite sparse and breakthrough innovation is absent. this ability to churn old stuff buys them time to create new stuff to put into the pipeline using more complex therapeutics like immunotherapies, etc.

I agree with everything you said in that post but I think we disagree on the inevitability of the pipelines running dry. The mere fact that such strategies have become common industry practice points toward a structural decline in novel drug discovery. While such strategies buy time for new blockbuster drugs to be discovered, they simply are not being uncovered at a rate commiserate with the expectations of the existing pharma business model. What you are describing are what I consider to be patches on the hull of a sinking ship. When today's big pharma business model relies on $X profits and all the profitable drugs are going off patent and being replaced by tweaks and new indications, eventually $X becomes $X-25%+. Once that happens, all these enormously expensive shenanigans are no longer affordable.

Of course, this all comes at the cost of some potential drugs discoveries that could have been made if the business model was kept honest but that's the future we're left dealing with.

cc439··on An epidemic of fake influencers and the death of meritocracy
But I swear these X-ray specs are legit and that you can learn to be a ventriloquist in only 5 days!
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