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captnObvious

87 karma · joined August 30, 2019

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captnObvious··on Coding without a laptop: Two weeks with AR glasses and Linux on Android
Ive mounted monitor arms to the front of the desk, rather than the back, and extended them out toward me for a somewhat similar situation. Bluetooth keyboard goes in my lap, thumb ball mouse goes on my arm rest. I can extend the monitor about 2.5 feet toward my face in this way. Hope it helps
captnObvious··on RFK Jr. Set to Launch Disease Registry Tracking Autistic People
As Secretary of Health and Human Services, Kennedy promised “some” of the answers to the causes of autism by September. But his “start from scratch” approach largely ignores research that has already been done. For example, Kennedy told reporters the initiative would look at ultrasounds during pregnancy as a possible risk factor. But a comprehensive multisite study of more than 1,500 pregnancies that found no link between autism and ultrasound use was published as recently as 2023. And scientists definitively ruled out the measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) vaccine as a cause of autism a decade ago (and again in 2019). In addition, the primary study that had suggested a link between the MMR vaccine and autism was found to have falsified data. Despite this, federal officials said in March that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention will conduct a study to investigate a link between vaccines and autism. The study will be led by a vaccine skeptic who was previously disciplined for practicing medicine without a license.

https://www.statnews.com/2025/03/26/rfk-jr-vaccine-study-of-...

captnObvious··on RFK Jr. Set to Launch Disease Registry Tracking Autistic People
Another 2015 study examined students in U.S. special education programs between 2000 and 2010. The number of autistic children who enrolled in special education tripled from 93,624 to 419,647. In the same time frame, however, the number of children labeled as having an “intellectual disability” declined from 637,270 to 457,478. The shift of children from one diagnostic category to another explained two thirds of the increase in autism in this population, researchers say.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-real-reason-a...

Some portion of the rise in autism rates may be unrelated to better diagnosis. The likelihood of having an autistic child increases for older parents, and there is a societal trend toward delaying childbirth across developed countries. Children who are born prematurely are also at a heightened risk of autism, and improved neonatal care means many more of these children are surviving to childhood and beyond.

captnObvious··on I genuinely don't understand why some people are still bullish about LLMs
For law firms creating their own repositories of case law, having LLMs search via summaries, and then dive into the selected cases to extract pertinent information seems like an obvious great use case to build a solution using LLMs.

The orchestration of LLms that will be reading transcripts, reading emails, reading case law, and preparing briefs with sources is unavoidable in the next 3 years. I don’t doubt multiple industry specialized solutions are already under development.

Just asking chatGPT to make your case for you is missing the opportunity.

If anyone is unable to get Claud 3.7 or Gemini 2.5 to accelerate their development work I have to doubt their sentience at this point. (Or more likely doubt that they’re actively testing these things regularly)

captnObvious··on Teen on Musk's DOGE Team Graduated from 'The Com'
I’m surprised this thread isn’t seeing more comments, it’s got a little bit of everything.
captnObvious··on Making a live-mode test payment to yourself = a payment processor ToS violation?
You’ve legitimately never tested something you built in production, after having already tested it in staging and local? You’ve just, had complete faith in staging production environment parity your entire career on every project and it has never failed you?

I’m sorry man but I don’t believe you at all.

captnObvious··on Decline in teen drug use continues, surprising experts
This is what I’m thinking. All of the kids I know from 16-22 are the most level headed group of young adults I’ve known. It is hilarious to me that this group of brilliant technologists leans so heavily towards seeing the absolute worst in every data point.

Could it be that, kids are doing less drugs because they’re more informed, less bored, and less reckless than previous generations?

We all aspire that our kids will do better than we have. We did our best to instill a sense of confidence and worth in them.

What if it is finally starting to just, f’ing work?

captnObvious··on My Time Working at Stripe
It sounded like an optional request not a command. I’ve managed and I’ve been managed and the relationship ships I’ve built along the way are deep enough to have conversations like these. We’re doing life with this people it’s not a dystopian novel about capitalism. If you have a genuine person as your boss moments like these help form friendships, and don’t feel like a dark Dilbert comic.

Friendships increase team communicability which bolster project success.

captnObvious··on New iMac with M4
I agree with you entirely except for if we skip the year over year part.5-

Time of purchase upgrade ability, if we’re talking about getting to 128 or 256 GB of RAM. Time of purchase to upgrade to multiple high res screens that match. Dedicated GPUs… I bet there is a top of the line home hobbiest LLM oriented GPU from Nvidia or AMD in the next 3 years that will cleanly connect to recent chip architectures. I doubt it will run optimally tied to a Mac. It’ll be something that you could also rack in a server.

captnObvious··on Skeptical of rewriting JavaScript tools in "faster" languages
I think we’re reading too far into the authors impostor syndrome.

He’s making contributions in Rust already. His opinion isn’t invalid just because he has a bias, he opens by acknowledging his bias.

captnObvious··on We are beginning to roll out new voice and image capabilities in ChatGPT
Why isn’t AGI ever going to happen? Ever?
captnObvious··on Programming with natural language is going to work (2010)
Check out chatgpt code interpreter. One step down…
captnObvious··on ChatGPT4 writes Stan code so I don’t have to
I’ve used GPT-4 as a pair programmer actively for over 40 hours now. Using it to do things you have 90% of the solution for is a bit of a waste of time.

Using it to help trouble shoot errors in logs when you’re feeling frustrated, and get a basic framework up from scratch to start modifying toward the your goal are the best use cases I’ve seen. The ability to get yourself unstuck in minutes is life changing. The biggest constraint right now is short term memory loss. It can nearly always recognize on a second pass through what mistake it made.

Keep in mind 32kb token requests are already in beta… and 4kb requests are what you have access to now. So… the memory thing is potentially a dead point soon. Though at 6 cents per 1kb if it actually has to volley 32k over to you it’ll almost cost $2.00 based on current API pricing.

That 32k option would allow GPT-4 to hold every non-monolithic project I’ve ever worked on in working memory. The pertinent parts anyway, it wouldn’t need to read CSS files or imported modules unless it really gets forced down a specific rabbit hole.

This will be one more reason new projects won’t be monolithic architectures. Easier for the AI to help out.

captnObvious··on Neon – Serverless Postgres
I hope y’all have a plan for when AWS decides to pick up your open source project and turn it into a managed cloud solution. It’s a pattern of theirs. And with the way egress charges are structured they’re likely to snap up any clients straddling their cloud and yours.
captnObvious··on Zillow to stop flipping homes, loses more than $550M, lays off 25% of staff
Holding onto inventory is death. In auto and housing sales if you’re a dealership you’re leveraged in order to hold that inventory (paying interest on it, less friendly interest than you get as a government backed mortgage borrower) and you’re paying insurance and maintenance on that inventory. Vacant houses depreciate very quickly.
captnObvious··on The Codeless CTO (2019)
Apologies in advance, I needed to vent:

Agree to disagree. To lead in technology you need a strong BS meter. You need to know what is and isn’t possible, for yourself. You can’t just take the advice of who you think might be the smartest guy. Everyone is not always going to agree on a technology decision and the same person won’t be right every time. If you don’t have an ability to pierce into the weeds and discern the real truth you’re not bringing much value to the business at all. Any jack wagon can stand around imagining what “the future of technology looks like for our organization.”

Yeah. sure. Which vendors proposal do you pick based off analyzing their stacks and devops procedures? The one that smells nicest? The consultant that bought you a steak?

Your tech leads think you should use one architecture, your consultant insists it’s another. Who is right never-made-software-before-cto-jack-wagon?

You’re just going to pick the guy you like the most or that was the more persuasive communicator. Every time.

I guess if you’re a CTO that doesn’t have to make technology decisions and just… dreams big dreams and is a great people person? It can work?

I’ll pass on working for that guy though.

captnObvious··on Worn-out nurses hit the road for better pay, stressing hospital budgets, morale
Not before it got politicized.
captnObvious··on Tesla Q3 2021 Earnings
They should be. The longer the build cycle the more errors there will be in the build.

Each job is a dependency for the next job. A long build time either indicates that individual assembly technicians have too many steps in their job (it is much harder to remember 25 steps than 5 steps) or that the plant is assembling more parts locally than their competitors. If you have an engine shipped in complete from your supplier that is less time your plant spends assembling a dependency at build time.

Electric cars should in theory assemble much faster than gas. Fewer parts. Less complexity in the mechanical assembly of the drive train.

When corporate overlords dictate that an assembly plant meet production numbers that it isn’t capable of accurately producing they shell out complete garbage. Inspection lines flag errors that managers ship with disregard in order to meet numbers. Every time.

captnObvious··on Worn-out nurses hit the road for better pay, stressing hospital budgets, morale
Worked in hospitals for years. The day my flu vaccine expired I had to go get another or I would be in violation of my contract. Has been like that for decades.
captnObvious··on This real estate bubble won't pop
For most of human history we built our own homes. We only stopped because having others do it became more convenient.