82 karma · joined December 31, 2022
I would imagine that in theory, everyone thinks they have the best information at the time, something like:
House: "Odds that X happens? We'll put $1 on both sides to get it started. 50/50."
Someone comes along: "Oh dang, I'm definitely more than 50% confident that X is happening. Let me put $1 in." Now it's 67:33.
Someone else comes along: "Oh I'm more than 67% confident X is happening, let me put $1 in." Now it's 75:25.
And of course, you get people going: "I'm more than 25% confident that X is _not_ happening, let me put $1 in!" And now it's 60:40.
The murky part, I would imagine, comes when the odds and the payout actually act as something that influences the outcome, but in perfect theory-land, if everything goes as planned, this should move the odds to the most informationally-accurate measurement, which should, in theory, benefit observers by making this measurement public.
And it is worth noting that a lot of the bullet point lists do start with "I made a ton of money" in as many words, which is also just not very interesting to most folks, though it is certainly very relevant and important to the writer.
They feel like they’ve been drafted a hundred times in the head of the author, but then put down on the page in a hurry, the clock ticking on their deadline.
Like, they’re trying to tell you the most important thing they’ve ever said - at the very moment the ship is pulling away from the dock.
A lovely read. I also have an affinity for dissertation acknowledgements and I think this entire piece really captures why they feel so special :)
Anyway, from my understanding, medications for treating PTSD are less effective than medications for other mental disorders. I'm waiting for the day that PTSD medications catch up, because therapeutic treatment for PTSD is currently centered on reducing discomfort, without much hope for remission, which feels like a dim outlook.
1. The picture in the article makes it seem like the bridge is located in a very residential spot where you might have your guard down.
2. The article mentions it was dark and raining when the accident occurred.
3. The driver was in an unfamiliar neighborhood, and in those times, I think many, many people have gotten very used to relying on Google/Apple Maps to "get you home without directing you into a creek".
You listed three realist authors. This is like complaining because you expected your apple to taste like an orange.
Suggesting that 9000 people lose their jobs feels like a needlessly hateful way to express a dissatisfaction with a company's products.
Given the wealth of information and the problem of appraising it all, I don't think it helps this book that it costs $55 and requires the reader to learn an esoteric language (for the field), when there are so many educational books and lecture series by experts in the field that you can find freely available online.