152 karma · joined November 28, 2020
I think we tend to overlook the fact that LLMs have tilted the scales heavily in favor of those with good verbal skills. A huge portion of the population (including a portion of highly skilled software engineers) is not great at doing this. For them, harness skills still act as a kind of scaffolding; they support automated work on a project in cases where insufficient details is given in the prompt.
The fact of the matter is, a person working with a bunch of agents is a lot more productive than just a person. It makes research faster. It makes experimentation faster. It makes output cleaner. And this is true across many disciplines, not just tech.
Also, it is a skill. Yes, anyone can chat with an LLM. But understanding the optimal work flow for what to delegate and what to do yourself is difficult. Understanding the need for precision in the language used, and learning how to elegantly phrase things that were previously just abstract thoughts is absolutely a talent that can be refined.
If i had to guess, I'd say we'll probably see major breakthroughs across multiple disciplines within the next decade, largely because researchers and engineers can cover much more ground individually now, freed from the slow moving coordination mechanisms that team dynamics require. Pretty good for "spicy autocomplete" as you put it.
Let's say i have some entity like an "organization" that has data that spans several different tables. I want to use that organization as a "parent" in such a way where i can clone them to create new "child" organizations structured the same way they are. I also want to periodically be able to pull changes from the parent organization down into the child organization.
If the primary keys for all tables involved are UUIDs, I can accomplish this very easily by mapping all IDs in the relevant tables `id => uuid5(id, childOrgId)`. This can be done to all join tables, foreign keys, etc. The end result is a perfect "child" clone of the organization with all data relations still in place. This data can be refreshed from the parent organization any time simply by repeating the process.
1) There are a lot of cases where aggregated user data, even if anonymized, allows for insights that you can't get using just your own data.
2) The software is really just a stand in for a process. A way of doing something, like record keeping or tax filing, etc. A lot of times it makes sense to follow an already established process rather than creating your own. You are less likely to encounter unexpected pitfalls that way.
I don't see how you can overcome those just by having an AI that can build simple crud apps at will.
1) Bitcoin figured out how to create artificial scarcity, and got enough buy-in that the scarcity actually became valuable.
2)Some privacy coins serve an actual economic niche for illegal activity.
Then there's a long list of snake oil uses, and competition with payment providers doesn't even crack the top 20 of those. Modern day tulip mania.
Use minimal html/css with server side rendering (and maybe a CDN/edge computing) for stuff that needs to load fast. Use react/vue/whatever heavy framework for stuff that needs complex functionality. If you keep them separate, it's all very easy. If you combine them, it becomes really difficult to reason about.
That being said, it's elegant and easy to reason about. And it's a nice intro into reinforcement learning. So definitely worth learning.
It's genuinely hard to identify dishonest practitioners. I think the best solution might be to convince the insurance companies to pay for second opinions. And then only to pay for the procedure if the two diagnoses agree. But I guess that's a tall ask.
It seems to me, the main reason is that representatives won't vote for them. Why not? Mainly because their financial and political incentives are structured in such a way that they can't. Why are these incentives like this? You can keep peeling back layers of the onion like this forever, but as some point you realize it's just due to structures of the system that will recreate themselves in any similar system. Like how wings evolved separately in different evolutionary branches but all conform to a similar structure. Any capitalist economic system will have methods for vested interests to inhibit many types of positive change.
Sure you could imagine something better. But such a system could very easily have fatal flaws you didn't imagine. In fact, North Korea started as just such a utopian ideal.
You could also argue that we used to have a system that was better than this. But if that system ultimately became this one, than reverting to the previous state would likely at some point result in the current state occurring again.
So in a sense "Do you want to live in North Korea?" is the only valid question.