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bturtel

159 karma · joined August 31, 2019

Founder & CEO @ Lightning Rod Labs - www.lightningrod.ai Writing - bturtel.substack.com

submissions comments

Proper Scoring Rules Shape LLM Forecasting

arxiv.org·3 pts·bturtel·

A small economic forecaster trained from raw Fed PDFs beat GPT-5

blog.lightningrod.ai·5 pts·bturtel·

Show HN: Open-source LLM and dataset for sports forecasting (Pro Golf)

huggingface.co·7 pts·bturtel·

Show HN: Trained an LLM to predict "What will Trump do?"

huggingface.co·10 pts·bturtel·

What can't be automated? The Last Human Bottleneck

bturtel.substack.com·2 pts·bturtel·

Future-as-Label: Scalable Supervision from Real-World Outcomes

arxiv.org·17 pts·bturtel·

TMLR: Outcome-Based Reinforcement Learning to Predict the Future

openreview.net·4 pts·bturtel·

Natural Selection Is Already Shaping AI

bturtel.substack.com·2 pts·bturtel·

Flooding the AI Frontier

bturtel.substack.com·2 pts·bturtel·

Foresight-32B Beats Frontier LLMs on Live Polymarket Predictions

blog.lightningrod.ai·6 pts·bturtel·

Why Apple Will (Eventually) Win AI

bturtel.substack.com·7 pts·bturtel·

Outcome-Based Reinforcement Learning to Predict the Future

arxiv.org·99 pts·bturtel·

What remains scarce post-AGI?

bturtel.substack.com·1 pts·bturtel·

Why humans are still much better than AI at forecasting the future

vox.com·5 pts·bturtel·

LLMs can teach themselves to better predict the future

arxiv.org·176 pts·bturtel·

Show HN: Sculptor – Python library for LLM structured data extraction (MIT)

github.com·9 pts·bturtel·

Show HN: Pensive – AI mental health coaching backed by science

pensiveapp.com·8 pts·bturtel·

Sunlight is more effective than censorship

cointelegraph.com·4 pts·bturtel·