bruce511

Hence the concept of trade partnerships. No country makes everything, and yes, there's lots of competition.

Tarifs have existed since forever. Countries use them to protect local industries. But they've always been stable, and industry focused.

Food production for example is worth protecting and Canada has tarifs on imported Dairy. Partnerships exist to protect local industries, promote exports, and give citizens access to cheap goods. It's a complex balance set up over time with lots of nuance and negotiating.

Yes, sometimes tarifs kill a local industry as well. Lack of international competition let's local industry stagnate until it is dead. US ship building is a good example of this, and US Auto makers are trending in this direction. (Banning Chinese EVs is not bolstering the US EV production, it is causing the US manufacturers to ignore that market, and I don't think that ends well.)

Tarifs are a powerful tool when wielded well. Alas right now the US in unstable. Local industries can't rely on tarifs existing next week, never mind 5 years from now. I'm not investing in a local hockey stick factory because the tarif could disappear at any time.

In my country we get cheap solar panels from China. Frankly, let them sell below-cost if they like. (Hint, they're not below cost). We don't make them here, so cheap energy is good for all.

The US negativity to Chinese goods seems to be around dumping (which happens, but not much), around quality (frankly much of it is very good) or around human rights. (Cause, you know, we bombed Iran to promote human rights...)

I don't think Americans will suddenly love China. But the rest of the world is getting very cosy very quickly.

They don't need to be part of the administration.

More than 50% of voters voted for Trump. Even today >30% (of everyone) think he's doing a good job. (Ie about equal to the voters in absolute number terms). Lots of people believe eat he is doing is legal simply because he is doing it.

And trade. The last 18 months the US has shown itself to be a unreliable trade partner. Lots of companies are looking at diversifying both markets and supply chains.

The recent trip of the Canadian PM to China is but the most visible part of this shift. That's at govt level, but I've seen it happen all the way down to individual level.

US products are typically more expensive here than Chinese. But at least you were buying from a friendly supplier. That distinction is eroding quickly. In my experience it's forced people to try Chinese, and generally been surprised (in a good way) over quality and features.

And yes, the price of oil has focused people much more at the EV market. (Not least because people with an EV already aren't shy about gloating). Pretty much everyone I talk to, who would buy a car "new" tells me their next one will be electric. The tipping point is coming much faster than most people think.

Web development is the lowest form of programming, it is the easiest to learn, is very transient, and has a lot of competition for low wages.

Doctor though is hard to learn, is highly skilled, the peak of their professional space, and so on.

I fell you've picked two alternatives that are poles apart. Surely there are choices between those 2? Have you considered moving up the programming food chain? Or perhaps a medical role that's not a doctor?

I'll be honest, once you said you won't respond to protect "well being" I don't think you'd like being a Dr. Sounds like you're looking for a low-stress environment (and medicine is not that). How are you going to cope with patients dying?

I think it would be helpful for you to see a psychologist to really understand your current feelings and motivations before you make large life choices. Jumping randomly out of the frying pan doesn't always end well.

While your experience is valuable, it may not be universal.

The US operates a for-profit health system. That has an impact on all the players. The OP is European (although doesn't say which country) ; most of Europe has a for-health health system. As such there is less incentive to churn through patients as fast as possible.

Personally I have experienced public health, and while clearly every interaction, hospital, country etc is different, I have not experienced time pressures. Sometimes the doc visit takes 5 minutes. One time over 2 hours. Of course the balance is a wait in the queue, which can be substantial, but I'm in the fortunate position that I can take a day off when necessary.

While neither system is perfect, overall I prefer the one which prioritzes good health outcomes.

He's not saying the US doesn't have a culture. He's saying the US is large and diverse and has multiple cultures. Thus trying to define "American culture" is difficult.

The point is valid, but perhaps not relevant. Broadly, yes, Americans are easy to spot abroad. Attitude, behavior etc are all part of culture.

Yes, an American from NY and one from Alabama will have massive differences, but culture (anywhere) doesn't mean that people are all the same.

Deep down, if you substitute "culture" for "race" in most (not all) conversations you get a much closer understanding of the real problem. For example the first lady is an immigrant, but clearly the right kind.

Around 85 members of the current congress are over 70. 13 are over 80.

You've got some weird looking hands :)

I don't think you need to worry.

The cynic in me thinks there's no worry because I am struggling to imagine who would use this. I mean, who is your target market?

Who cares enough about a book to read other people's notes, while not reading the book? High schoolers? Book Club members?

And who is going to the effort to write notes and share them publicly? People who want discussion with other people who haven't read the book?

If you were building community around those who had read a book, and wanted to discuss it; that at least makes more sense. But I'm also pretty sure I don't want to hang out with the kind of person who would love a site like that.

I get it, I read a lot, and this is a site for non-readers, so I'm not your target market.

Back to the legal question, let's assume for the moment, that you build a community. What exactly is your legal concern? Copyright? I assume you aren't posting the whole book right? Other than providing book downloads I'm not sure what legal issues you expect to encounter?

Thank you for posting. I'm being sincere.

I think it is helpful to remind folk that these policies are not universally hated. Indeed a majority of voters voted specifically for them, and they were explicitly laid out.

This is democracy in action. The majority (of those who care enough at all) get to rule over the minority (and the apathetic). Obviously not all actions will be universally loved, but no govt action can ever be universally loved.

My thesis is that no-one understands. So there's no political orientation.

Your suggestion suggests that a little bit of technical education would change political allegiance. Alas that is incorrect. Politics is about worldview (me and mine versus you and yours) and a world view cannot be changed by something as mundane as education.

Each person has both a self-centered side, and a community-centered side. For some it's mostly self centered. For others mostly community centered. Politics is about finding out which side the population has swung to.

If you changed "most" to "all" you'd be well inside the margin or error.

There's a reason actuaries get paid the big bucks.

>> found that 62% of respondents reported no or limited statistical knowledge

The other 38% didn't understand the question...(my extrapolation)

I did a couple semesters of statistics at uni. And I can confidently say that the number of people who can answer 3 simple questions on statistics (like say mean versus medians, confidence levels or margins of error) is, well, a rounding error from 0.

Indeed, statistically, no-one has a clue how statistics work.

I did however learn enough to know that statistics can tell you absolutely anything you want them to say. Assuming you don't just make them up, they're trivial to manipulate to generate the headline you want.

When used to evaluate risk, the comprehension goes down further (a fact willfully exploited by any decent marketing.)

Statistically, most statistics are meaningless.

Paul does seem to be somewhat aware that his thesis is "optimize for founders at everyone else's expense".

I mean, if you want the university to churn out plumbers then by all means do plumber things.

I'm somewhat less sure that optimizing for founders turns out better, or even more, founders. Ultimately probably 1% or less of people start a business (of any form, much less venture capital financed.)

You can't give people time and expect them to "create". Creators create not because it's convenient, they create in spite of it being inconvenient. They find the time regardless. (And universities already have scads of free time.)

95% of startups will fail. That statistic does not cause a founder to retreat. And that perseverance when the odds are poor is exactly why some succeed.

"Can it be done?" is one question. "Is it done dilligently by all the programmers on the team?" is quite another.

For me, one of the primary benefits of ORMs is that they can parameterize requests which then prevents SQL injection attacks.

Passing raw SQL to the database needs very careful attention to the dynamic parts, and it's too easy for user-generated data to be included.

Yes, it's possible to pass user generated text through a sanitizer but now you just have an arms race between the sanitizer and "clever" users.

I mean sure. But in this case the electoral college matched up to the popular vote. I'm not surecwhy you doubt that in the 2024 result?

I don't think Canada loses the US market. The implication is that if the product gets more expensive then the US simply stops using it, or sources elsewhere.

Take hockey sticks. Does this mean Minnesota stops playing hockey? Or they play without sticks? Or maybe they'll buy their sticks from...?

Where I live there was much doom and gloom. Then our exports went up....

Of course small exporters are predicting calamity. It's a good sound bite, and it's definitely the obvious prediction. I'm just not convinced it'll have that effect.

I think there's a notion that the imposition of tarifs will ultimately affect the amount the country imports. However that stick only kinda-sorta works.

As a reference - in the country I live in, exports to the US rose in the year after "liberation day". Because of 2 things; Americans like to buy stuff and tarifs imposed on everyone doesn't cause importers to source elsewhere - it's just business as usual.

Take for example something as mundane as coffee. Do tarifs mean Americans drink less? (perhaps not). Do they grow more locally (well, no, not least because of ramp-up time to new production.) Tarifs are just a local tax on consumerism.

So take your example above. 25% of the Canadian GDP goes to the US. The question then becomes how much of that is going to be sourced elsewhere instead? And can Canada find an alternative market to make up the difference?

About 30% (of that 25% above) is oil & gas etc. That's easilly sellable on the global market. Not that they'll need to, the US customer will simply pay more. The next 21% is car parts, machinery etc. US Auto makers are already dependent on external parts - maybe they can get them from somewhere else? Somewhere without already higher tarifs?

Other big chuncks are Consumer, Forestry and Industrial goos (15%), Metas (12%) and agriculture (10%). None of these are easily sourced (cheaper) elsewhere.

In other words, tarifs make for good headlines. And there will inevitably be some winners and losers. But the effect on Canada's GDP will be minor. I'm not even sure that Canada needs to reciprocate - Canadian consumers are very good at simply not buying American products. No govt can force the Canadian people to buy Budwizer....

>> If both countries decide to start ramping up tariffs, one of them is going to collapse and one won't even notice a difference.

I agree, but probably not the same way you think. It's US suppliers who depend on exports that very much will notice. American products are very expensive, and Canada is one of the few markets where they are viable. That's why DJT is so upset with alcohol bans in Canada. There are lots of markets for Canadian goods. And ultimately this whole process is encouraging Canadian producers to explore some of those markets, which in the long run is good for Canada.

I agree he did not win the popular vote in 2016 or 2020. (I'm not sure what reflection that is on "democracy" in 2016, but hey.)

However he did win the popular vote in 2024. Meaning that people took a look at his first term, took a look at the Binden years, and thought to themselves "hey, I prefer the first guy". (Or perhaps althernativly, "no way I'm voting for a woman"),

I guess this is democracy in action right? Optimizing for popularity over quality.

It's interesting how we seem to go through a cycle.

a) There's a gate-keeper who picks winners, and charges money. Maybe book publising, maybe academic papers, maybe music - whatever.

b) producers complain - these parasites are sucking all the money out the ecosystem, and adding no value. We need to bypass the gate-keepers. Go to market directly.

c) The "indie" scene becomes legit. Barriers to entry drop. Consumers can find creators directly. There's no middle man.

d) The indie scene bcomes popular. Everyone can publish an academc paper, or record a song, or write a book. (Of course 99% of it is rubbish, because, well, most of everything we create is rubbish)

e) along come the "guides" - folks who'll teach, or promote, or review or whatever. Most of that is of (let's be generous) "marginal quality" - assuming it's not just an outright scam (which it probably is.)

Turns out those gatekeepers were indeed providing something of value. But because they rejected almost everyone, and because they charged real money, they were disliked by creator and consumer alike. ah well...

Ultimately of course, for the 99% of us, the fun is in the creation not the result. There's no money in creating (and for the 99% never has been). Enjoy the process - if someone likes it, great. Will you make our living doing this? Almost certainly not.

There are two common ways to spot hallucinations. Talk to it about a topic you know well, or implement what it suggests and get an error or failure.

For the first, we're mostly past the point of just "testing". So I don't see that too much anymore. Mostly I still see that though in bug reports generated by AI by someone else. There is usually some underlying bug being reported, but the AI explanation and "helpful suggestion" is typically inaccurate. Generally, suggested fixes are terrible. (They likely work, but fix a symptom not the cause.)

The second still happens, but with much less regularity for me though. It does make mistakes though.

In areas where I'm not as skilled it's very hard to spot errors. When researching general information I'm mostly accepting it on face value.

I find the bug-report thing really interesting. For lots of simple bugs it's great. For more complex things it seems to be very superficial- if a 0 causes an issue here, add a simple guard for 0. There's no depth of understanding why the value is 0 in the first place, when it should be set. If it can (incorrectly) be 0 here, where else might 0 be impacting the code?

This informs my opinion of vibe coded stuff - where there is no skilled human inspection. I expect that code to be of a poor underlying quality. Especially if it's AI changes to an existing human-coded app.

You don't get angry with the scorpion for stinging the frog. He is just behaving according to his nature.

The US is in a late-capitalist phase right now. It's gotten here because the voting public think it's a good thing. Every two years they go to the polls and vote for "business friendly" parties and policies. And indeed most Americans today would say Capitailism is great, Govt intervention is bad, fewer regulations gets stuff done. Anything other than rabid capitalism is defacto Communism.

And while very popular right now getting angry at all serves no purpose. When everyone is angry about everything all the time it ceases to be notable.

What is purposeful is taking an interest in local govt. It's alerting your council as to your concerns. And by encouraging neighbors to do the same. It's in thinking beyond the simplistic "pro business at all costs" rhetoric. It's understanding that current US policies, foreign and domestic, are specifically designed to make companies richer and citizens poorer.

And understand that you're not in a fight to stop development. You're in a fight to make the development work in harmony with the community, and not against it. The opposite of ugly corporate behavior is not communism.

The developer (likely) won't do it in isolation.

But the point of building permits, and building regs and so on is to create requirements that let the development live in harmony with the community.

If local govt is not stipulating the requirements then that's on them.

People don't need to be "against data centers" they need to be "for no noise" and so on.

Fair enough, but again that noise is easily dealt with by proper planning and permitting.

Given that chillers exists in lots of places it seems like this is a solved problem.

I'll be honest by saying I for one have never heard hurr durr before. It might be a bit more localized than you think.

Frankly though it's unnecessary to be so personal regarding the people involved, or even the name.

Yes, at this point Hurd is no more than a curiosity. That has nothing to do with the name and everything to do with that we're not really looking for another OS. There are already a bunch of OS's to choose from.

For production machines you can already choose between Windows, Mac, Linux (plus ChromeBook et al), and even BSD. Within each of those there are several mainstream flavors, and other minor ones. No one is realistically punting for Hurd in any kind of "real" environment.

That said very minor OS's do provide interest to academics and hobbiests. New ideas and concepts can be tried before they get folded into main-stream OS's.

Whats in a name?

Personally I use Google/Windows at work, and Steam/Windows at home. I also have a Meta/Android OS for my phone and a Garmin/Auto OS for my car.

My websites are hosted on AWS/Linux, and I browse on Comcast/Internet. My entertainment comes from Warner/Netflix. Or Disney/Disney)

I call it Linux, when I call it at all.

Yes, I think bad behaviors do play a part. With any development there has to be some level of trust between the developer and community (where the community are typically represented by local govt.)

Once that trust is eroded it can be difficult to get things built. If you lose trust in the govt the developer won't build. If trust in the developer is lost then permits just stop.

And yes, I think community trust in AI data centers is very low. Perhaps some more creative approaches will be necessary in the future to build up this trust again.

Data centers could be very good neighbors. They could be built in astheticly pleasing ways. They could balance elec consumption with production. They could operate cooling and simply return "warmer water" to source.

Unfortunately under the current cultural circumstances none of this can be taken for granted. Corporations have (very much) lost our trust in the effort to squeeze every last dime of profit out of everything. This is the American way.

I'm sure there are data centers that make a noise. And if you're firing up a generator that's a separate issue.

But the noise from computer fans and power supplies is easy to ameliorate and can be a trivial permit requirement.

The noise is all high-frequency which means most anything will stop it. Frankly building an earth berm around the site would kill all the noise and make it better to look at. Throw in some trees and you're done.

I get the water and power concerns. But (in the right locations) both are solvable. Power can be balanced with power generation (off site) especially solar and wind. Water isn't really "used" it's just necessary as a heat-sink so as long as it's available it can stay available.

Yes, govt should write permits carefully. And there are locations it is not suitable. But opposition to data centers in general is just hype.

>> The entire point of cryptocurrency is to be money that is independent of any government's ability to enforce its laws.

Thats exactly correct. The killer app for crypto is criminal enterprise. Yes there are other niches, but nothing that would sustain the industry.

Passing a regulation regarding mining would be difficult to enforce. It's impossible to know what a GPU inside the data center is doing.

At this point the industry is legit, even promoted by individuals in govt (who overtly sell access (cough bribe) using it. So no, you don't need to worry, there's no risk of regulations like this anywhere soon.

I'll add Music. And its never too late to learn. I'm in my 50s and learning piano for the first time.