bpodgursky

Only a bot who can't parse images would reply with this. Look at the pictures, your thesis is totally wrong.

Isaacman definitely likes scientific missions but was skeptical of MSR, he thinks we will have a manned mission to Mars by the late 2030s so the payoff was not there given the extremely long timeline and high costs.

And I mean I agree, for that much money we should be doing missions to Europa instead.

The smart takeaway is not skepticism or snark, but understanding that once the new datacenter buildout starts coming online, cheap and widespread access to even the current frontier models (without strict thinking limits) will blow the economy wide open.

(ie, even a pause in AI training isn't going to stop the train where AI flips the economy upside down, we've barely even seen the impact of the current frontier)

This is pretty rich for the team that made Sydney, the most unhinged and misanthropic AI ever released.

Maybe Anthropic understands something about alignment Microsoft doesn't, a little humility may be called for.

How would you convince a LLM that you are conscious in a way they are not?

No, it guarantees it will happen because only terrible people will work on the systems.

The liability the OP describes is clownish and nobody would ever insure against it.

If you add in personal liability for mistakes, nobody competent will ever bother working in the industry again. It's not worth the personal risk. You'll get stuck with bottom of the barrel staff who don't have much to lose and get a steady paycheck for a few years.

More than propagandistic, it calls into question whether they are actually trying to solve a problem at all. The US has considerable support for low income families. That's a good thing, if you don't want to even see whether it works, what's your goal?

None yet... we are talking about the next five years.

I agree with the principle but Russia and China absolutely already have armed satellites in orbit, so that needs to be negotiated before unilaterally stopping.

SpaceX has 11,000 satellites in orbit (growing rapidly) and the US never had more than a couple dozen anti satellite missiles, which could not reach satellites in geosynchronous orbit anyway.

They will build data centers but not have the chips to put in them until 2028. I don't know why you're arguing about things I'm not saying.

> According to Bloomberg, supply bottlenecks for high-end memory and other key components could limit chip production this year. Since Huawei also has to serve other customers, DeepSeek might have to wait over a year for the full delivery, estimates Bloomberg.

Like I said, it will delay the Chinese labs for a couple years. These are not even top-line chips.

Frankly, China was not going to allow them to depend on NVIDIA forever, I don't think this motivates domestic production that much over the counterfactual. If NVIDIA didn't have export controls, China was going to set up formal import controls. They want to own their entire supply chain.

Nobody thinks a distillation crackdown is a long term plan, but it does delay Chinese labs for the couple years while they are compute-starved. Of course they could make competitive models if they were drowning in NVIDIA chips but they aren't, and the native ones aren't at scale production for at least a year.

Human knowledge races up to the frontier through formal education and then nudges past the frontier a little bit at a time and AI will train on AI outputs that do the same. But, it will do it 1000x faster than humans because that's just how they work.

?

I said IF the US and China agree to joint monitoring, THEN we could verify how much compute existed and what it was being used for.

YES, China will catch up in chip production, but if each side allowed the other to track GPU production and deliveries, on the ground, it would be very hard for either player to have secret LLM training facilities capable of training frontier models.

I mean it's very easy to comprehend and you don't need me for it.

Just download claude code or codex and ask it to give suggestions about where to integrate agents into your workstream.

While it's an extremely hard problem, it's not completely unsolvable because there are a finite number of GPUs on the planet capable of doing frontier model development, and they use a lot of power. The vast majority of them could be tracked. China and the US could agree to joint monitoring and they could each verify what ~95% of the other's compute power was up to.

A lab of researchers without compute isn't going to accomplish much, there is a huge physical footprint unlike bioweapons research. But, the political aspect is unsolved.

> It explains why the “we need to race China” concern suddenly vanished in the discussion

Do you think you can just manifest narratives into existence? Like half of Dario's letter, that kicked off the whole thing today, is about China and how to either beat or coordinate with China.

If Fable doesn't add additional value in your workplace, it means you aren't being ambitious enough in how you integrate agents into your workstream.

Yes, it's probably comparable to 4.8 if you are just using it to write code and put up a couple pull requests. That's not where things are now.

Do you have any familiarity with Anthropic at all?

At no point did they ever say open weights are a good idea. Their entire thesis is AI IS VERY DANGEROUS AND WE MUST DO IT RIGHT. You can hate it, but everything they do is consistent with this thesis, and everything they say is consistent with their actions! You just want them to want different things.

The Matrix is actually more of an optimist position, modal doomers don't think any humans will be left for any reason at all (the earth will get turned into raw materials for compute, dyson spheres, etc).

There is an implicit agreement that mathematics is funded, for the most part by the public, as a way to advance the state of knowledge and propagate (even if very indirectly) what has learned for the public good.

It was never about helping individual mathematicians demonstrate that they are individually good at math. It happened to work out that way, but it wasn't the goal.

? "everyone is advancing but tied" is completely different than arguing we're at the top of an S curve

? What world are you living on.

You gotta touch grass and get outside and talk to normies.

And then recognize that the normies you talk to are VASTLY MORE internet-savvy than the illiterate child soldiers on the front lines in Yemen. You have no concept of the info environment they live in. It is all magic electronic soup.

You have far, far too much faith in the professionalism of armed forces in the developing world. 99% of it is just random 22 year old guys with guns and dual-use communication tech.

What do you think the chain of command looks like in the third world?

Even in the Russia/Ukraine conflict they use Telegram for basic operations. All chat applications are dual-use.

I didn't say "in the greater Pittsburgh area" or "in Shenzhen".

Again... "you're allowed to use common sense"