The vibe coding dunning krueger damage has yet to surface, but I'm guessing it will be in the billions. I'm not even talking about the insane infrastructure investments - thousands of c suite execs are vibe coding pointless crap instead of delegating it to their team that knows what they are doing, wasting thousands on tokens if they are on enterprise API plans for zero return or spending 30$ on creating an interactive html page for stuff that should be a power point slide with a few bullet points. It's totally insane!
The solutions is simple: stop running these things autonomously without supervision, stop advertising them as safe to use for long running task automation.
So, so tired of these doom posts. Almost always these feel like they are from developers that felt like they were superior to others because of their ability to code or simply identified too deeply with writing code instead of solving problems with code. As for the issues listed here, I can't relate to any of them - I've been creating scripts, skills, improving user experiences, creating monitoring dashboards etc. for many of my co-workers that have given me more appreciation than I ever experienced in my career and trust me, nobody gives a damn that I used AI or thinks my knowledge has been "obsoleted", most people are just happy these solutions exist and make their lives easier. Edit: imo, this is the real "fuck it, make it anyway" approach to agentic coding.
Why? AI is enriching my life and letting me focus on solving hard problems. I don't believe in the sentience crap and am just using it at face value for what it is, a useful productivity tool. Every software developer's main purpose is to automate and reduce the amount of boring manual labour required. By this logic, should people in the past have "resisted the software development department"?
No, no, you don't get it - soon Joe Sixpack will be prompting AGI "solve me {super difficult problem researchers couldn't solved for centuries}" and releasing their own research papers!
I'm a backend engineer working closely with a single frontend guy on an internal app and after creating a pr in his repo, it was immediately clear that AI can build some nice brochure sites, but UI state management, clean UX, good performance and API dispatch handling still require you to know what your doing for things to work well.
I think that frontend devs merely have to move from debating their frameworks to focusing more on user problems, maintainability, performance etc. but that is every dev right now...
I agree that Zitron is not honest and a denialist regarding the usefulness of AI, but the "profit" chart is just completely misleading as most of these companies have made large investments in OpenAI/Anthropic and list the gains in their share price as "profits" - so yes, while the asset prices are rising, that's typical in any financial bubble. Google is actually cash flow negative for the first time in history (which imo should be what measures profitability: income from products and services - costs to produce them) so Zitron's core thesis that there are no returns in AI is playing out as far as I can tell...
How is the effort switching from an operating system containing all your data and apps, which might not be compatible with the new one, comparable to just switching an api key?
I'm assuming this happens to the people vibe coding and running 30+ agents in parallel that are "coordinating" each other. I've never seen Claude do or even suggest anything remotely dangerous when I'm just giving it incremental tasks and reviewing the output.
The thing is it's very hard to know where on the spectrum you should be and that is breaking many people's brain in the industry (myself included). While I believe both the deniers and singularity believers seem like irrational extremes, the negativity of the deniers and complete lack of aw for the tech just shows me whatever the future is, they are not the ones involved in building it...
Imagine suddenly a new taxi business was able to come into your city and provided taxi rides for 5 cents on the dollar. What would happen?
Edit: now add on top of that that even if uber tried to undercut them again by running losses as they did in the past, that new taxi business would not loose any money if the number of their rides went down because their operating costs simply scale with the number of rides - while uber was loosing money on every ride.
The reason uber didn't loose that much business is because it replaced the established businesses and left most consumers with little alternative.
That's not the case with AI - unless the frontier labs achieve AGI or some sort of super intelligence that lets them create infinite economic value (at which point, any further discussion is pointless for obvious reasons), the average worker can do most of their tasks with 5% of the api costs using an open source model from China and achieve the same results.
I just started exploring this stuff with herdr, it's pretty cool! But I prefer my multiplexer having this functionality built in, as it lets me also have the agent organize my panes and tabs automatically based on what it is working on
That implies that you did more than prompt the AI and actually learned whatever activity it is you are asking the AI about, because otherwise you wouldn't know to ask those questions. A person making music solely with AI won't ask about tuning their guitar because they don't have one and don't intend to use one.
The entire "Don't Read the Code" argument is just insane to me and ironically when you see who the people are that are advocating it, it's often the same people that talked about microservices, the latest java script framework, no-code or any other methodology that was in vogue at the time just to avoid focusing on solving the real problems; The illusion that they are just one "smart step" away from achieving a 10x productivity boost that will make everything else trivial...
And? How valuable are individual lines of code? To the author's point, I'm sure AI can translate individual sentences perfectly, but miss the nuance of communication in a bigger project or body of text. In the same vein, when was the last time someone put an AI on a ralph loop, posted the result on r/vibecoding and ended up with actual users.
A simple browser tower defense to enjoy during your lunch break. Written in Kotlin, TeaVM has made it possible to run surprisingly complex Java games, didn't expect it!
Building is not any less important now, AI just highlights this fact. The software I work on is the difference between people getting paid or not, which those people consider very important - I use AI to do that by letting it improve the quality of the software, with less bugs, more performance etc.
The 10000th social media spammming SaaS being built in public is no less important now than it was before AI - we can just see how irrelevant it is now that it can also be built faster, by virtually anybody.
Personal story time: for me it was falling for the indie hacker stuff near covid and realizing the same stuff.
The best solo business is to pretend you are successful i.e. "I'm sitting on the beach sipping my drink while Claude is coding my app that's raking in 20k MRR, just use my {SEO|Social Media|Referral} tool and that will be you!". Hope to get enough people suckered in to become a "voice in the bootstrapper community" i.e. your posts filled with generic tropes get shared around X. But ultimately the product is the (fake) lifestyle. Most of the products in that eco system are not used by anyone in the productive economy, it's a pyramid ponzi of users believing they are getting valuable advice.
That said, I do still build stuff "Solo", because I enjoy the process of making and I can take the time time to meet my own quality standards (classic trope in that community even before AI was "you just gotta build you MVP in 3 days, ship quickly!" and it ends up causing you to churn out soulless software that obviously nobody will use unless they are your bootstrapping internet buddy).
Lot of people I know from those days are still trying to make it and wasted a lot of time/money! Not all bad for me personally though - I learned a lot about entrepeneurship, spotting fakes, etc. and was much more naive and younger then.
Aaaannnnd they're out of business and it was because of slowing demand and tightening credit the whole time.
Here in Europe this is not a thing, I've been hearing about such cases mostly from the US where it's clear that there is a recession going - I don't know why this is not blatantly obvious to everyone who does not view reality as whatever is said by the talking heads on TV.
By making them walk into the landmines and forcing them to fix it - that is how everyone became a good programmer. It's just the scope that has changed.
Yeap, and people are still forcing juniors to make small code changes when they should be learning by creating entire apps on their own, deploying them, etc. WITH a senior giving them feedback occasionally. I think people are going to take a while to catch on though, for better or worse....