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bognition

3,843 karma · joined October 22, 2013

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bognition··on Have we been wrong about why Mars is red?
The key point is that the rust that gives Mars its red color was thought to form in a dry period, after mars lost its water:

> Previous studies of the iron oxide component of the martian dust based on spacecraft observations alone did not find evidence of water contained within it. Researchers had therefore concluded that this particular type of iron oxide must be hematite, formed under dry surface conditions through reactions with the martian atmosphere over billions of years – after Mars’s early wet period.

The new research suggests otherwise:

> new analysis of spacecraft observations in combination with novel laboratory techniques shows that Mars’s red colour is better matched by iron oxides containing water, known as ferrihydrite. Ferrihydrite typically forms quickly in the presence of cool water

bognition··on Microsoft cancels leases for AI data centers, analyst says
A common hypothesis for why Nvidia is so hot is because they have an effective monopoly on the hardware to train AI models and it requires a crap ton of hardware.

With DeepSeek it’s been demonstrated you can get pretty damn for a lot cheaper. I can only imagine that there are tons of investors thinking that it’s better to invest their dollars in undercutting the costs of new models vs investing billions in hardware.

The question is, can Nvidia maintain their grip on the market in the face of these pressures. If you think they can’t, then a short position doesn’t seem like that big of a gamble.

bognition··on Microsoft Cancels Leases for AI Data Centers, Analyst Says
Time to sort NVDA?
bognition··on Twelve months at 1.5 °C signals earlier than expected breach of Paris Agreement
Exactly. For all their bluster the Trump Admin is making novel moves that wouldn’t be tolerated if they were in their own. They are hidden by the outcry around USAID.
bognition··on Twelve months at 1.5 °C signals earlier than expected breach of Paris Agreement
It’s not in my head. Going back as far as 1992 George Bush was saying “The American lifestyle is non-negotiable” at an international gathering focused on climate change.

This has proven true. It’s also spread across the globe and is a major contributor to green house gas emissions.

bognition··on Twelve months at 1.5 °C signals earlier than expected breach of Paris Agreement
Honestly I’m starting to wonder if all the bluster around acquiring Greenland and annexing Canada is all focused on having land available for the United States when the southern and central states become uninhabitable.
bognition··on Twelve months at 1.5 °C signals earlier than expected breach of Paris Agreement
Until the pain hits the wallet and stomach of the American middle class nothing is going to change. The ruling class and their media machine have people whipped into line and parroting back the talking points of the ultra wealthy.

It’s going to take pain of a seismic level to break the hold on the minds that of the people.

bognition··on Order Declassifying JFK and MLK Assassination Records [pdf]
Great do Epstein next
bognition··on Is Iceland getting ready to join the EU?
Iceland effectively has free electricity. I believe they are one of the biggest producers of refined aluminum. Could use it as a way station to process raw material that require a lot of electricity.
bognition··on Dropbox saved millions building a custom load balancer
This is very cool, but it seems like a lot to build to optimize the load balancer.

I'm curious why there isn't a discussion of "Power of Two" load balancers. They do a VERY good job getting close to near optimal load with relatively simple overhead. Vs something like what dropbox built which is a pretty heavy system

https://medium.com/the-intuition-project/load-balancing-the-...

bognition··on The Maker of Ozempic Is Trying to Block Compounded Versions of Its Drug
It's great and I'm happy for you that you have a body that is such that you can do that. Many people do not have similar experiences. Often times people who are not able to do things like are labeled as having a lack of control or a failing in the character. The truth is that many people have different chemistry which makes doing something like this borderline impossible.
bognition··on Learning to Reason with LLMs
The local decline in open software engineering positions has _nothing_ to do with AI. The best orgs are using AI to assist developers in building out new systems and write tests. Show me someone who is doing anything bigger than that, please I'd love to be proven wrong.

The big decline is driven by a few big factors. Two of which are 1- the overhiring that happened in 2021. This was followed by the increase of interest rates which dramatically constrained the money supply. Investors stopped preferring growth over profits. This shift in investor preferences is reflected in engineering orgs tightening their budgets as they are no longer rewarded for unbridled growth.

bognition··on Metformin decelerates aging clock in male monkeys
Interesting, Metformin is mostly commonly used to help treat high sugar levels in diabetics. I'm curious if this is the same mechanism or if its a novel mechanism.

There's data to suggest that too much sugar can cause all kinds of problems to the brain, increasing oxidative stress is one of them.

Maybe the answer we're all looking for is to cut sugar from our diets.

bognition··on Ask HN: Isn't all SaaS just wrappers?
You used to be able to slap a UI on a DB and call it a day. When Salesforce as launched having a unified DB for all sales information with a UI for controls and reporting was revolutionary!

Today the world is very different. You need to do more than provide a system of record, you have to build a product that makes it easier for customers to accomplish some task.

bognition··on Cancer rates are rising in young people
It feels like everyday a new paper is published showing either massive levels of compounds that interfere with endocrine system in the blood. Microplastics, being the biggest one. So when I see headlines like this, "Cancer is up in young people." I can't help but sigh and think, this is expected.

I'm not sure what the right course of action here is, but do we really want to continue with a model where we continue pumping new and unknown compounds into our bodies and the ecosystem with little thought to the downstream impacts?

Some of these compounds have made our lives orders of magnitude better and yet they are wreaking havoc in our lives in ways we'll probably never understand.

bognition··on [dead]
Court rulings like this rarely change law enforcement behavior. They do provide citizens with a ruling they can use to challenge overreach by law enforcement.

So if you find yourself getting searched un-lawfully at the border, your day is still going to be terrible. You now have recourse.

bognition··on Every company should be owned by its employees
The vast majority of small businesses have no "exit" in sight. Instead they want to rely on solid business fundamentals. Sell a product/service for a profit. Typically the owners of the business get access to the profits proportional to their ownership stake.

By enabling employees to be owners you grant them access to those profits and to participate in discussions around how to spend/re-invest profits.

bognition··on Every company should be owned by its employees
Let's ignore that most of the places people work are not publicly traded companies and pretend that any employee could buy stock in their employer.

If that were the case and employees were compensated equally in stock vs cash, then yes there is no _rational_ difference. However, most human are not rational.

People like to take pride in their work and do a great job, this is amplified when they stand to directly benefit from their efforts. By enabling employees ownership in a company you're hoping to incentivize them to work harder and therefore amplify the return on their labor.

bognition··on Puerto Rico files $1B suit against fossil fuel companies
> not disclosing the risks to the environment

It's more than that, it was the willful misrepresentation of the truth. The oil companies didn't accidentally end up in this situation. They knew back in the 80s the effects that oil consumption would have on the ecosystem and they covered it up and actively pushed lies that prevented any kind of meaningful change.

bognition··on Alcohol is driving a half-dozen types of cancer in the U.S., study finds
They don't. What they can do is observe cancer rates in populations that have 1 drink per day and compare that to rates of cancer in other populations. There are a bunch of statistical tools you can use to try to identify and correct for other confounding variables.
bognition··on [dead]
Moving to rural Utah is hardly an effective way to escape politics. If you're looking to escape political discourse and different opinions then this makes sense but you'd be joining a community with a very narrow set of political ideas and social opinions.

Also worth pointing out that deseret.com is the news arm of the Mormon Church. Anything published on that site is going to be highly biased.

bognition··on Why your brain is 3 milion more times efficient than GPT-4
If we’re going to exclude the cortical areas associated with vision, you also need to exclude areas involved in motor control and planning. Those also account for a huge percent of the total brain volume.

We probably need to exclude the cerebellum as well (which is 50% of the neurons in the brain) as it’s used for error correction in movement.

Realistically you probably just need a few parts of the lambic system. Hippocampus, amygdala, and a few of the deep brain dopamine centers.

bognition··on Why Steve Jobs Went 'Thermonuclear' over Android (2014)
From one viewpoint, this is akin to a king marrying off his children to a rival kingdom.

Having your CEO on the board of another company helps drive alignment and collaboration. It’s a solid business strategy.

Sometime it drives long term alignment. Other times you end up letting a fox in the henhouse. In this case it sounds like Eric Schmidt was a fox.

bognition··on MeshAnything – Converts 3D representations into efficient 3D meshes
why are polygons preferred over triangles?
bognition··on Drugmaker to testify on why weight-loss drugs cost 15x more in the US
My conclusions were not about how to do drug pricing in general. Rather about how we could justify a lower price for this specific drug.

The success of Ozempic is exceptional Without a doubt, And I’m arguing that because of this exceptional success, the company can afford to dramatically lower price

bognition··on Drugmaker to testify on why weight-loss drugs cost 15x more in the US
Well the research and development was originally for a diabetes. It actually worked quite well. The appetite suppression was a bonus (an extremely lucrative) side effect.
bognition··on Drugmaker to testify on why weight-loss drugs cost 15x more in the US
Ok I’ll bite.

Ozempic cost 3B to bring to market. Let’s 4x that to include the cost of drugs that never go to market. Raising costs to 12B. Let’s say a company can recoup their costs over 6 years, meaning they need to make 2B a year in a drug.

In 2023 [1] Novo made 12B on Ozempic. So they’re doing 6X better than the estimate above.

So they could cut the cost of Ozempic by 6, bringing the monthly price to $125 (which would be material for most people). They would still be raking in the cash.

I get the above model is overly simple but with the amount of money Novo is making they cannot justify these high prices.

[1]https://www.axios.com/2024/01/31/novo-profits-jump-wegovy-oz...

bognition··on French court orders Google, Cloudflare, Cisco to poison DNS to stop piracy
In the last decade Tech has become part of the establishment. They are one of the dominant controlling forces.

The blackout was _not_ about preserving free speech, or any other moral high road. It was purely about control. Tech hadn’t yet cemented their position as a dominant player and didn’t want to cede the control they had.

Now that they’ve embedded themselves in the ruling class they don’t care as much because they already have control.

bognition··on Ted Chiang has won the PEN/Faulkner Foundation's short story prize
Personally I love "Exhalation" a lot more
bognition··on Redesigned 11-inch and new 13-inch iPad Air
Do you have a physical keyboard mouse that you use?
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