bkohlmann

The military term is called “bearing” and what its intended to teach is to “keep your head” even in the midst of the unexpected (which pretty much defines combat). Instead of freaking out, take stock of what’s happening around you and make a decision that accomplishes the strategic directive. In close order drill, it’s maintaining discipline and conformity. In the fluidity of the battlefield, it may be different, but the mindset is the same.

I was on the drill team in ROTC and in the middle of one of our maneuvers where we needed to make some adjustments to the rifle strap, my buddy’s just completely fell to the ground in about 3-4 pieces. It made a huge clatter. He stood there stone faced and unmoving, at attention while the rest of the platoon finished the maneuver. The judges, three intense USMC gunnery sergeants, just stared at my friend.

When the rest of the team was done, our commander calmly said “MIDN X, fix yourself.” He bent down precisely, threaded the strap and snapped back to attention.

Then we moved forward with the drill card. We got first place among 150+ teams.

It’s what happens amidst the unexpected that defines success.

I thought both private wealth management and residential real estate would be disrupted by digital technologies. The perception was that these have middle-men adding little value (i.e. just buy index funds! just use Zillow!)

However, what I missed was that these jobs aren't about objective measures and efficiency. They both come down to trust between one human and another.

While it still makes "rational" sense to use online tools, people are emotionally invested in their retirement accounts and the biggest purchase of their lives. They want to be made to feel good about it. At least half those roles are to be psychologists, which at this point, cannot be done by machines or algorithms.

It used to be an act of war to shoot down another country's aircraft - and now we've seen it happen twice on each side of Iranian / US tensions in recent weeks.

One of the early questions about UAVs was what impact they would have on the implications of force. I think we've got an answer: drones are fair game since they don't have anybody in them. Still higher stakes than doing nothing, but less so than shooting down a manned platform.

For instance, when I was on deployment near the Gulf on a carrier, we would regularly have an Iranian P-3 fly very close to us even after repeated warnings. Same thing with Russian Bears. We'd usually sent up an F/A-18 or two to "escort" the visitor and would never think of shooting them down unless fired upon. Yet, if a drone gets within 1000 yards, down it goes.

No judgment - interesting to see the rules of war evolve in real time with new tech!

Its not just right wing media - this is the very definition of confirmation bias.

Socialists do the same thing. Outcomes they like can be attributed to collectivism and those they don’t like they attribute to capitalism / free markets.

All ideologies have costs, benefits, and results that deviate from the ideal. Doesn’t mean they are “wrong.”

I’ve been thinking about this man all night. He, alone among his peers, took an action with foreseeable and negative personal consequences. Whether spontaneous or planned, he made a choice that may well define the rest of his life, for good or ill.

I took the time to reflect on my own weekend, celebrating America’s independence against different totalitarian rule. I spent it with family, safe, free, and relaxed. I couldn’t help but wonder if i would have the fortitude of this man, even basking in the freedoms I now, blithely, take for granted. Base rates for humans show that amidst totalitarian regimes, most choose silence and going with the flow. While i like to imagine otherwise, I am a product of my culture - and self-protective.

Yet, this man, on one evening, said “here I am. And this is who I am.”

Knowing nothing else about him, he is a hero.

The Red Rising series has significant plot points in jupiter and beyond. Fantastic books.

At least in the US, every 2 years. Congress funds the military and determines its size.

I really enjoyed this.

That said, The Godfather of fractal theory, Benoit Mandelbrot, wrote a book entitled “the Misbehavior of Markets” which is a deep dive into why markets exhibit fractal behavior (he even goes so far as to do the coastline zoom for stock market data).

If you have 2 or more teachers, odds are very good you’re being taught about it. I had 6+ teachers as a senior in high school. No need for my band, math, English, or even history teacher to teach it. This headline is not alarming.

Per capital emissions is valuable - and don’t we also need to look at emissions per unit of economic output? (Ie carbon per dollar of GDP?)

Emissions means something is being produced, which is why we find them useful despite externalities. There is a balance between human quality of life and preventing climate change.

True. Even better is flying for the airlines and taking a reserve flying gig to get the reserve retirement. Wasn’t for me.

I think you’ve hit a key psychological insight. And they have a choice to also push through an existential Sunk Cost fallacy.

I spent the first 11 years of my professional career in the Navy flying airplanes. It was a niche skill set. When I left, I had the airlines available, by I would’ve been bored to tears in the job.

So at 35 I started over in a new career. It’s been challenging - but there is a future. I’m 6-8 years (at least) “behind” my colleagues.

The choices we make have consequences. And if you have your health, you can always choose to change your course.

Why would you need rent control if you had active building policies that ensured supply kept up with demand? The price of housing wouldn’t change, so there would be no need to mandate a specific below market price.

Some people are anti-immigrant. Many others are anti-illegal immigrant, including myself.

I favor very liberal immigration laws since immigrants have immeasurably bolstered American culture and society. Asylum seekers should be welcomed with open arms, and their claims should be verified to preserve the integrity of the asylum system. We as a nation have the inherent right to control our borders as a matter of democratic policy (as all other nations do). There are legitimate national security (and economic) concerns with small numbers of those who would do harm to our country.

The alternative to reasonable restrictions on immigration is open borders, which I think would lead to poor outcomes.

As a former member of the military who went through very good and relevant training, I can attest to the TACTICAL value of simulations and war games. However, they were basically worthless in training to a highly dynamic strategic environment. Many were designed to validate a system or belief rather than test the unknown. In theory war games should be built to be free play oriented...in reality the aren’t.

Philip Tetlock in his masterwork Superforecasting does a great job of showing “expert” forecasting is no better than reasonably informed “amateurs.” A must read.

It’s likely that part of the reason you’re arriving earlier (especially if flying west to east) is due to higher jet stream velocities in the winter. This increases the ground speed of the plane even if the optimal indicated airborne airspeed is being maintained.

History may have been different but to say LBJ wouldn’t have found a way to power via the senate or even the presidency is impossible to say. He knew how to survive amidst setbacks...who knows what would’ve happened if he lost that race.

Unless the nominee is Harris or another woman. Then a white male would be a smart strategic move to play to middle of the country demographics, which cost the dems the 2016 election. Buttieg, as an Indianian, among other characteristics would be a perfect fit.

My hunch is part of his strategy is to make a strong showing in order to be the VP candidate for a non white male nominee.

I think it’s likely attributable to financial returns of angels.

One of my business school professors was a prolific angel investor. I asked him about his returns and he laughed. He said it wasn’t about the returns - by the time he cashed out, he was so diluted (or enough failed) that the ROI was far less than an index fund.

What it did give him was social capital - to say he was an angel in a famous unicorn was immensely valuable to him.

Unless you’re already rich, social capital doesn’t pay the bills.

Having read "Evicted" - the book positively mentioned in the article - I came to understand how difficult it was to be a landlord in LCOL areas. The effort required to evict or collect on non-paying tenants made it a full time job with significant costs associated (psychological and financial).

The article did not make mention of this in it's accounting of "profit."

I’ll also add value I’ve seen she adds from a buyers perspective:

-she has access to a lot of off market listings via her networks. Sellers will somethings keep things off market so that when they sell, the tax base stays relatively the same - the appraisers don’t see a sale in the official pipeline -my wife also is really good at sending bespoke letters to target homes of folks not yet willing to sell. She’ll ID a group of homes in the buyers range, send them letters, and usually gets a 5%+ response rate. These are from folks who wouldn’t have sold otherwise

Where you stand really depends on where you sit.

My wife recently became an agent, and prior to that I was all about disrupting the industry.

But I’ve come to see the 3% on each side as an almost market clearing price. It’s really hard work, with low barriers to entry, and significant upfront costs.

In a tight market, being a buyers agent can be a blessing or a curse. She’s been working with one client for nearly a year, submitting over 20 offers and going all over the metroplex with nothing to show for it. On the other hand, she’s had buyers who found something within a month. It works out to a decent standard of living, but it takes a long time to develop a pipeline. Most agents quit within a year.

I’m all for disruption, and it’s an industry with a lot of legacy, slow moving players. Buts it also a complex one with lots of challenges on the individual agent level.

I can only speak to the "point of action:"

When faced with a big task, I usually feel overwhelmed. But if I take a step back and focus on a singular thing that needs to happen, it makes it far more managable. The first step is always the hardest, but once taken, you've overcome a the mental block of seeing the whole forest.

For instance, after a dinner party, the stack of dishes seems insurmountable. But if you focus on the first dish, then the next, then the next...pretty soon the entirety of the effort seems manageable.

In my professional life, I have to build a lot of excel models - many of which are complex and take a long time. This, again, seems overwhelming. But I start by putting something - anything! - in a cell. Then I build out a row of headers. Then the column headers and a formula or two. Then iterate on that. Soon, the insurmountable task has been made possible by SIMPLY DIVING IN. And once you have something to iterate on - even if its "bad" - it's mentally easier to make changes than start from scratch.

As a (older) millennial, one of the unanticipated benefits of my military service was near financial freedom. When I was 18, all I wanted to do fly airplanes. I didn’t realize it would help me have options when I decided I was done flying.

I graduated from a top private university with no debt in 2004. My parents didn’t pay for any of it (indeed, they couldn’t). I was on a full ROTC scholarship which covered all my tuition and books. It also paid a monthly stipend of ~$350/mo which covered my minimal needs. Room and board was covered by summer jobs like painting houses and some other random scholarships I got from other sources.

No one goes into the military to get rich, but if you are savvy, you can do very well in your 20s. I always had a roommate. I ended up buying two (low cost) houses which I then rented to buddies on the same base. When on deployment, in a combat zone, we got tax free pay – and almost nothing to spend it on. Being a saver anyway, I threw them into index funds and a few tech stocks in the early 2010s. I started a Roth in 2004, maxing my contributions every year since (benefitting from having no loan payments).

When I got out of active service, I went to a very expensive, top graduate school using the GI Bill. It paid for over 80% of tuition, and since I was in the Bay Area, a very generous housing stipend. The rest I made up for via other veteran and religious related scholarships.

At 35, I had a nice nest egg built up, two prestigious degrees paid for via my early military career choice, and a very nice job lined up after graduation with significant upside. My wife and I have no debt (aside from our current house), some cash flowing investment properties, and positive career prospects going forward. I also have the option of continuing with (minimal impact) reserve service to get a small, but meaningful monthly pension at the age of 60.

The decisions (unanticipated in many instances) early on have enabled an empowering financial future. We’re not uber-wealthy…yet. But we are secure - all without family contributions.

Some caveats: Most of my military career I lived in low cost of living areas (think rural Mississippi, Texas, and California). I was unmarried with no kids. I had a propensity to save (similar military peers with a similar trajectory had a lot less cash when they got out…and some have a lot more).

I write this only to present an alternative, showing the unanticipated rewards from making a particular career choice. The key thing here is the immense value of getting education paid for and being able to invest the money that would’ve gone to loan payments over a decade or more.

For many the military may not be the right move (and there are downsides)…but in my case, it had immense financial upside (and I got 1800 free flight hours out of the deal!), especially for a public school kid coming from a modest family. To you 17 year olds without money looking for options, taking advantage of government funded education in return for military service can be a lucrative path if tied to other cost-minimization strategies.

The lead author is a friend of mine. The beautiful thing is that he got an...MBA from Stanford.

I’m consistently intrigued by his observations about the world. He doesn’t let his own background get in the way of questioning established wisdom. The fund he runs now is based on a belief that private equity is seriously flawed...which he discovered by working as an analyst for one of the top firms.

He hosts a fantastic weekly newsletter with a lot of quantitative insights - can discover his strategy and sign up here:

http://verdadcap.com/strategy/

"Over the past few years, he and others have found that medium-size groups of animals or humans are optimal for decision-making"

As someone intrigued by the mechanics of politics, this really struck home. Autocracies are bad for a variety of reasons - and so too are true democracies (where everybody can vote on many issues...see the CA ballot initiative chaos in public policy).

Representative democracy strikes this "goldilocks" balance with fewer actors than full representation, but far more than a restrictive oligarchy.

It's remarkable to me how complex board games, like our society at large, have become over the past few decades. And the messages that are conveyed by the games. We assume the current state as "normal" but actually points to the remarkable progress of our society.

I'm playing "Chutes and Ladders" with my four year old, which is a direct derivation of a popular ancient Indian board game.

And I love the title of the Soviet game mentioned:

"Tuberculosis: A Proletarian Disease, Look After Your Health! The New Hygiene Game"

But being a fighter pilot (and now, very rarely, a helo pilot), is the only way to command an aircraft carrier. Which is a pretty cool command!