In that case they would have just burnt cash for 5 years and didn't have anything to show for it.
992 karma · joined December 7, 2023
AFAIK only Apple has been commiting to wafers up to 3 years in the future. It would be a crazy bet for NVidia to do the same, as they don't know how big will be the business.
It's the weirdnesses of FPGAs though. You aren't really designing a gate level circuit at the end. I'm not sure Verilog or VHDL are to blame here. Maybe they aren't fit for purpose to begin with. I hate the toolchains too. They got worse (sluggish, more paid IPs etc) in the last 15 years. IC design tools cost A LOT more (like 2-3 orders of magnitude more) comparatively but they just work at least!
Smuggling part is happening on the old machines before EUV. There's a lot of them available on the second hand market thanks to Europe and US keep shutting down their old fabs. I don't think any DUV machine is smuggled. Even if they physically smuggled one, you need a team of ASML engineers to set it up and calibrate. You can guess what ASML will do in this case.
By the way, let's don't forget: ASML doesn't have any problems with China. They are incredibly annoyed with US and Dutch governments. This is potentially the biggest market they are missing out. Even then, they won't tolerate a summugling operation.
This isn't a moat ASML can keep for long though. There can be alternatove technologies to achieve the same goal. So far only China has that incentive. The real problem is process scaling is slowing down. How many more generations of lithography machines will ASML design? Probably not many. This means there will be no edge left in 5 or 10 years, as eventually brute force will work and China will achieve the same lithography resolution.
Till that point, they are just going all in with cheap coal + solar, so even if they use older machines and run longer exposure times, even if they achieve lower yields and toss away a lot of the dies, they are still economically competitive. At the end cheap enery solves a lot of the issues.
Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shrimp_paste
Made me reflect on my own persuasion of thin desires and my struggle to control them.
It also made me see that my hobbies and my career are actually about following my thick desires. I'm in tech, yes. But I chose, among all the possibilities, to be an analog circuit designer. The analog part is what makes it a long hard skill to master, and my day job feels like constant learning from my interactions woth the world. I can't imagine doing anything which isn't interacting with the actual physical world!
Boxwood was for centuries the choice of wind instrument makers because of its stability and hardness, which made it possible to create thinner more practical instruments (clarinets, flute etc). till humans discovered granadillo wood, which is as dense as boxwood but much more humidity and temperature stable.
Couple of years back I went to all wooden spoons in the kitchen. My all time favourite is the most traditional of all: boxwood. This is what wooden utensils are made in my home country for centuries. It's light but dense, hard, and durable. It doesn't absorb color or smells easily as other hardwood. Beautiful too!
Growing up in a developing country in 90s we used to use this type of machine for bigger loads because our normal front loader machine was only 6kg capacity. This + a bathtub was the way to go for washing the blankets, bedsheets etc. It costs now sth like 20-30 usd.
To give a feeling: micro-ribg resonators are anywhere between 10 to 40 micrometer in diameter. You also need a bunch of other waveguides. The process in the paper uses silicon waveguides, with 400nm width if I'm not wrong. So any optical feature unfortunately isn't going down as much as CMOS technology.
Fun fact: the photolithography has the same limitations. They use all kinds of tricks (different optical affects to shrink the features) but fundamentally limited by the wavelength used. This is why we are seeing a push to a lower and lower wavelengths by ASML. That + multiple patterning helps to scale CMOS down.
The area is massive. 330um × 290um are the X and Y dimensions. The area is roughly 0.1 mm2. You can see the comparison on table 1. This is roughly 50000 times larger than an SRAM of 45nm process.
This is the problem with photonic circuits. They are massive compared to electronics.
Sure, car ownership is expensive here, but this is necessary to discourage car-centric culture.
Oh, I would have bought a VW transporter in your case, but that's a personal preference matter.
Nowadays there are electric micro cars too, like Citroën Ami. I believe Renault has sth too, and the Chinese brands too. They are cheap, often cheaper than an electric cargo bike!
I guess homeschooling fits well with extreme individualistic American culture, no surprises there.