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belter

61,795 karma · joined March 23, 2021

Du ferí da Belte!

“Wow! Signore professore dottore Eco, what a library you have! How many of these books have you read?”

"It is possible to commit no mistakes and still lose. That is not a weakness. That is life."

  - Jean-Luc Picard
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belter··on Why are Spain and Portugal growing twice as fast as the Eurozone?
Why dont you read the article? The answers are there. [1]

And even if they were only raising the question, the detailed numbers alone would still justify the article, and those were included too...

[1] - "...Tourism continues to play a key role in supporting Spanish services activity, which grew by 0.8% in the quarter. Construction also made a notable contribution, with output rising by 2.1%. Lower energy prices and easing inflation have helped sustain consumer confidence and encouraged spending.

Portugal also grew by 0.8% in the final quarter, matching its performance from the previous three months and outperforming the market forecast of 0.5%.

On a yearly basis, Portugal’s economy expanded by 1.9% in 2025. While that is slightly lower than the 2.1% recorded in 2024, it remains well above the eurozone average.

However, the composition of growth differed from that of its Iberian neighbour.

Portugal’s economy was lifted mainly by an improvement in the trade balance. A sharp drop in imports, particularly in petroleum products, helped offset weaker domestic demand and gave overall output a positive push..."

belter··on CIA to Sunset the World Factbook
See the positive. At least you would not get a fail on your school essay about Greenland...
belter··on Epstein associated with Silicon Valley elite years after his release from prison
https://archive.is/CWgUj
belter··on [dead]
Out of the four Epstein lawyers, two were from Kirkland & Ellis. Acosta used to work for.... Kirkland & Ellis !! and later said he planned to rejoin the firm... :-))
belter··on [dead]
"...As part of the plea deal, Epstein served 13 months in a minimum-security county jail.... He was also allowed to leave the facility up to 12 hours a day...."
belter··on Data centers in space makes no sense
Nobody colonizing Mars. Get real. The most likely outcome, is him landing on a cell when the full Epstein files come out.
belter··on [dead]
https://archive.is/9BN8Y

"...The pact required Epstein to plead guilty to two prostitution charges in state court. Epstein and four of his accomplices named in the agreement received immunity from all federal criminal charges. But even more unusual, the deal included wording that granted immunity to “any potential co-conspirators’’ who were also involved in Epstein’s crimes...

...These accomplices or participants were not identified in the agreement, leaving it open to interpretation whether it possibly referred to other influential people who were having sex with underage girls at Epstein’s various homes or on his plane...

...As part of the arrangement, Acosta agreed, despite a federal law to the contrary, that the deal would be kept from the victims. As a result, the non-prosecution agreement was sealed until after it was approved by the judge, thereby averting any chance that the girls — or anyone else — might show up in court and try to derail it..."

belter··on Waymo seeking about $16B near $110B valuation
I am pretty sure you are underestimating how important it is for them. But we can look at their own scientific publications.[1]

No maps no driving....carnival ride...

"High Definition (HD) maps are maps with precise definitions of road lanes with rich semantics of the traffic rules. They are critical for several key stages in an autonomous driving system, including motion forecasting and planning. However, there are only a small amount of real-world road topologies and geometries, which significantly limits our ability to test out the self-driving stack to generalize onto new unseen scenarios..."

[1] - https://waymo.com/research/hdmapgen-a-hierarchical-graph-gen...

belter··on Waymo seeking about $16B near $110B valuation
>> They’re currently testing them in weird ass tiny streets here in Tokyo.

With real drivers mapping the roads. [1]

If you rent a car in Madrid or Paris, do you spend years "mapping" the towns before you are able to drive safely from A to B?

Waymo is nothing more than a geofenced Disney ride.

[1] https://waymo.com/blog/2024/12/partnering-with-nihon-kotsu-a...

belter··on Waymo seeking about $16B near $110B valuation
If you put human lives on the line, both on the shared public road and inside the Waymo then how the sausage is made totally matters, as directly applies to what the failures modes are. Safe from A to B only holds in ideal conditions and limited zones. The hard problems like rare edge cases, weather, unpredictable humans, are precisely why it cant scale easily.

If the tech was truly solved, Waymo would not be geo fenced or expanding so slowly.

belter··on xAI joins SpaceX
It is pretty clear. Socialize the losses of Musk investments by recovery via SpaceX contracts, supporting the US space program and the new Golden Dome program.

He sold FSD for 12 years, now is going to sell a Dyson Sphere for the next 30. This guy makes Ponzi look like a street hustler.

belter··on Waymo seeking about $16B near $110B valuation
Asphalt is not marketed as Level 5 intelligence. You can make analogies but that is very different from a rebuttal...that you did not do. The hard part is still unstructured human chaos. Time will prove which one of us is right.

See you at the next construction zone...

belter··on Waymo seeking about $16B near $110B valuation
Would you address my other technical comments on what Waymo really is?
belter··on Stonebraker on CAP theorem and Databases (2010)
http://www.bailis.org/blog/when-is-acid-acid-rarely/
belter··on Waymo seeking about $16B near $110B valuation
Waymo is not solving driving, it is closer to a sophisticated Disney Parkland ride. It is running inside a tightly constrained Operational Design Domain:

- Geofenced areas

- HD pre-mapped roads

- Curated infrastructure

- Remote ops fallback

This is not general autonomy, it is highend automation inside a controlled distribution. The system degrades exactly where humans do not: construction, unmapped lane shifts, police manually directing traffic, chaotic mixed behavior.

A cop overriding a light is not an “edge case”, it is a semantic and social reasoning problem that current perception stacks still do not robustly solve. It works because the world is pre modeled, not because the car understands driving.

Scaling that beyond a few mapped US suburbs into Europe is a totally different problem. Dont get fooled by Wall Street stock pumping.

belter··on Hacking Moltbook
Schlicht did not seem to have said Moltbook was built as a joke, but as an experiment. It is hard to ignore how heavily it leans into virality and spectacle rather than anything resembling serious research.

What is especially frustrating is the completely disproportionate hype it attracted. Karpathy from all people kept for years pumping Musk tecno fraud, and now seems to be the ready to act as pumper, for any next Temu Musk showing up on the scene.

This feels like part of a broader tech bro pattern of 2020´s: Moving from one hype cycle to the next, where attention itself becomes the business model.Crypto yesterday, AI agents today, whatever comes next tomorrow. The tone is less “build something durable” and more “capture the moment.”

For example, here is Schlicht explicitly pushing this rotten mentality while talking in the crypto era influencer style years ago: https://youtu.be/7y0AlxJSoP4

There is also relevant historical context. In 2016 he was involved in a documented controversy around collecting pitch decks from chatbot founders while simultaneously building a company in the same space, later acknowledging he should have disclosed that conflict and apologizing publicly.

https://venturebeat.com/ai/chatbots-magazine-founder-accused...

That doesn’t prove malicious intent here, but it does suggest a recurring comfort with operating right at the edge of transparency during hype cycles.

If we keep responding to every viral bot demo with “singularity” rhetoric, we’re just rewarding hype entrepreneurs and training ourselves to stop thinking critically when it matters. I miss the tech bro of the past like Steve Wozniak or Denis Ritchie.

belter··on Stonebraker on CAP theorem and Databases (2010)
No. The real world is full of eventual consistency, and we simply operate around it. :-)

Think about a supermarket: If the store is open 24/7, prices change constantly, and some items still have the old price tag until shelves get refreshed. The system converges over time.

Or airlines: They must overbook, because if they wait for perfect certainty, planes fly half empty. They accept inconsistency and correct later with compensation.

Even banking works this way. All database books have the usual “you can’t debit twice, so you need transactions”…bullshit. But think of a money transfer across banks and possibly across countries? Not globally atomic...

What if you transfer money to an account that was closed an hour ago in another system? The transfer doesn’t instantly fail everywhere. It’s posted as credit/debit, then reconciliation runs later, and you eventually get a reversal.

Same with stock markets: Trades happen continuously, but final clearing and settlement occur after the fact.

And technically DNS is eventual consistency by design. You update a record, but the world sees it gradually as caches expire. Yet the internet works.

Distributed systems aren’t broken when they’re eventually consistent. They’re mirroring how real systems work: commit locally, reconcile globally, compensate when needed.

belter··on US Justice Department releasing more than three million pages from Epstein files
Kevin Warsh...

https://x.com/allenanalysis/status/2017326214143160420?ref_s...

belter··on Stonebraker on CAP theorem and Databases (2010)
The 2010 is really important here. And Stonebraker is thinking about local databases systems and was a bit upset but the NoSQL movement push at the time.

And he is making a mistake in claiming the partitions are "exceedingly rare". Again he is not thinking about a global distributed cloud across continents.

The real world works with Eventual Consistency. Embrace it, for most 90% of the Business Scenarios its the best option: https://i.ibb.co/DtxrRH3/eventual-consistency.png

belter··on Elon Musk asks Jeffery Epstein for invitation to 'let loose' [pdf]
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%2010/EFTA01942...
belter··on US Justice Department releasing more than three million pages from Epstein files
And Howard Lutnick...

https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA004010...

belter··on US Justice Department releasing more than three million pages from Epstein files
Musk asking to visit the Island: https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%2010/EFTA01942...
belter··on New Epstein files just dropped; data set 9 has no archive
They released the file...then removed minutes ago, although many had already a copy. Here is what was on it: https://www.threads.com/@meidastouch/post/DUJFSmTiUjo/link

This is the file the DOJ just deleted minutes after release: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1EY0UXGGDNKdDwppTR78LdCBNUOx...

belter··on DOJ's "Epstein Files Transparency Act" Document Release (30th Jan 2026)
File removed minutes after release by the DOJ: https://www.threads.com/@throwyourdreamsintospace/post/DUJPz...
belter··on US Justice Department releasing more than three million pages from Epstein files
They released the file, then removed minutes ago, although many had already a copy. Here is what was on it: https://www.threads.com/@meidastouch/post/DUJFSmTiUjo/link

This is the file the DOJ just deleted minutes after release: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1EY0UXGGDNKdDwppTR78LdCBNUOx...

belter··on Waymo robotaxi hits a child near an elementary school in Santa Monica
>> I honestly cannot imagine a better outcome or handling of the situation.

One better than: We investigated our own system and found ourselves to be at no fault?

belter··on Tesla profit plunges as sales fall and AI expenses pile up
Be careful and dont drink the kool aid...all from 2025...

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/EhDTlYbn910

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/3wtJhOj5Ouk

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/CqazhMw205c

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/McX19KSWmbU

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/p5QrtF2VYwE

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/2na2I0E55-o

https://youtu.be/JoXAUfF029I

belter··on Somebody used spoofed ADSB signals to raster the meme of JD Vance
If you get the DF17 frames and extract the airborne position messages Type Codes 9–18.

Then CPR decode them into latitude/longitude....plus plot enough spoofed positions so the point cloud forms a QR code like raster on the map, then scan the rendered pattern...you get a URL to the unredacted Epstein files.

belter··on IBM Mainframe Business Jumps 67%
Nothing do to with AI. Its the upgrade to the new Z Generation.

https://www.redbooks.ibm.com/abstracts/sg248579.html https://www.redbooks.ibm.com/redbooks/pdfs/sg248579.pdf

Nobody dropping Mainframes.

belter··on Amazon cuts 16k jobs
https://youtu.be/B1zKWNB2rho?t=230
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