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beatgammit

1,828 karma · joined July 7, 2012

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beatgammit··on Librem 5: The Linux-based smartphone is not close to consumer ready
Why? This is a crappy review that doesn't do the device justice, and the PinePhone has nowhere near the level of support that Purism will offer. Neither should be considered "consumer ready", and it'll probably remain that way for at least a year.
beatgammit··on Librem 5: The Linux-based smartphone is not close to consumer ready
Or they tried to connect to an incompatible network. The article is light on details.
beatgammit··on Why Telling People They Don’t Need Masks Backfired
I think anyone who thought critically about it could see through this. It's not the masks are ineffective, it's that they're not necessary for the average person to be reasonably safe, and they're in short supply, so we should be focusing on mitigations that are available to the general public.

If you wash your hands frequently, don't touch your face, and maintain a safe distance from others, your risk goes down dramatically. If you add a mask to that, your risk goes down modestly. Everyone can do the first set of steps, but not everyone will have access to masks, and having more people panic about getting masks will likely cause more problems than we have already.

I feel like that was the intended message, but they weren't transparent about it. Trust is built over time and can be destroyed in an instant. Our leaders need to be much more careful.

beatgammit··on Chinese bats carry viruses primed to cause the next deadly pandemic (2013)
I think the best option is to understand these viruses better, so we should be increasing funding to stay ahead of the next disease. Ideally, we could identify a set of likely deadly viruses so we can be ready to develop vaccines if necessary.
beatgammit··on Chinese bats carry viruses primed to cause the next deadly pandemic (2013)
Even if they're cooked, the handler could have contracted it during preparation.

I don't know Chinese culture well enough to know if we can solve this problem through market controls (might just shift to the black market), so we should be focusing efforts on identifying and understanding viruses and bacteria that could transfer to humans so we can stay a step ahead of disease. I'm sure we're doing a lot of that now, so perhaps we just need to adjust funding.

beatgammit··on US hospital uses five months' worth of supplies in six days as shortages hit
I think there are a ton of inefficiencies that could be fixed, but I don't think we need to risk destroying our economy to fix it. There are a lot of reasonable, incremental steps we can take.

This is an older article[1] (2003), but I imagine the findings are only more relevant today. It compares the costs of the US healthcare system and Canada's, and there are huge discrepancies in price. Obviously the systems are very different, but I think we can trim the administration costs while keeping our privatized system.

I'm not an expert, nor have I done a ton of research, but it seems that making costs transparent (and having instance pay advertised costs) would go a long way to cutting costs. Care providers do a lot of work to deal with insurance, so if we move that to insurance companies, they'll find ways to reduce their own costs and we can eliminate a lot of redundant jobs. Medical care providers should focus on medical care, insurance should focus on financial care, and individuals should shop for the best deal. Ideally, I only interact with my insurance when I need it, much like auto and home insurance. I don't tell my auto insurance every time I change the oil, so why do I do the same for health insurance and checkups?

- [1] https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMsa022033

beatgammit··on Coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data
~1 million is the current annual death rate in the US (~0.8% last I checked), and the disease kills older people much more than younger people. How many of those 2 million would have died anyway in the next couple of years? How many would have contributed to the economy over the next few years? How many of those who will die from a recession would have contributed to the economy?

These are tough questions, but I think they're worth answering so we know what we're really gaining by shutting down the economy. I know we want to save as many lives as possible, but we should also know the cost too.

beatgammit··on 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic
Testing randomly gets us a better picture of how widespread it is then testing to confirm severe cases. I'd much rather know that X% of the population has it with an error of Y than Z% of severe cases are due to this virus.
beatgammit··on 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic
That certainly seems like something the Japanese government would do. Just look at the Fukushima nuclear issue for evidence of them hiding information to save face. I personally do not trust the Japanese government to be transparent about such things.
beatgammit··on 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic
Masks are effective at preventing spread to others, but they're fairly ineffective at preventing spread to the wearer since the virus can get on any exposed skin and make it's way to your mouth (e.g. touching after washing hands) within the 3 hours or so it can survive.

Since we don't know who is contagious, and we don't have enough masks for everyone, they're essentially "useless". They're quite useful for medical professionals because they're more likely to use sufficient caution than the average person, so it makes sense to reduce panic buying for something that likely won't help the average person so more are available for those that really need it.

beatgammit··on 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic
If this becomes a cyclical thing, I'm sure we'll have vaccines for it like we do the flu, at which point it'll just be annoying like the flu is.
beatgammit··on 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic
Oh, it's absolutely not "the big one", which is why I'm so frustrated at all of the panic buying. It was pretty clear early on that this isn't that deadly and that the main issue with it is filling up hospitals. We later learned that the whole process from infection to recovery (well, enough to be released from a hospital) is about 2 weeks, maybe less.

This isn't some society-collapsing event, but it does require containment so our medical infrastructure doesn't get overwhelmed. If you get it, you'll most likely live, even without medical attention.

That being said, we do need to treat it seriously. It isn't just a dress rehearsal for something worse, but it is telling in how people react. I'm worried about what will happen if something worse comes along.

What I have learned, however, is that my general strategy is always keeping 1-2 months of basic essentials on hand is a good idea, and that I need to be more vigilant about it because people overreact.

beatgammit··on Popcorn Time 4.0
Legally, it is stealing. However, just because something is illegal doesn't make it wrong.

However, you could also think of it like the digital equivalent of sharing. If someone purchases a movie or TV series on physical disks, they could loan it to you without breaking the law. In fact, they could even make a copy of the disk and not break the law. The only way to break the law this way is by having multiple copies in use at the same time. This is just digital sharing without checks in place to make sure multiple copies of the content aren't used simultaneously.

That being said, who is really harmed when I give someone a copy for free? I'm not stealing from the content creator (I paid, after all), and I'm not selling it, and there's no guarantee that the person I gave it to would have purchased it. If the creator hasn't lost anything and I'm not taking credit for it, nobody was harmed. In my eyes, this makes piracy acceptable as long as I don't sell it.

If we didn't have such strong copyright protections, content creators would be forced to compete with piracy by offering convenience, but instead they sue. Netflix has proven to reduce piracy because they offer convenience, but that only works for content they can provide.

beatgammit··on Popcorn Time 4.0
Personally, I think it should be tiered. I'm willing to pay ~$2 for older films (that's what my grocery store charged when I was a kid), ~$5 for new releases, and I expect a discount for paying month to month vs ala carte. So, if I watch one movie/week, $10/month seems fair since I'll probably watch 1-2 new releases and likely won't watch a movie every week. If I watch 2x that, then $15-20 seems fair. If I watch a movie every day, $50/month seems fair. Maybe pay extra for higher quality.

I currently pay for Netflix and Amazon prime, mostly so my kids can watch cartoons (we don't have c cable or satellite TV) and because my wife likes fast shipping (we watch way more Netflix than Amazon Prime though). I don't expect to pay more than either service to have access to a better selection of movies.

beatgammit··on Popcorn Time 4.0
I don't use PopcornTime or otherwise pirate, but I completely understand the motivation of those that do. Personally, I just watch fewer movies because the value just isn't there. I subscribe to Netflix and Amazon Prime mostly because they're inexpensive and have a decent selection of kids shows. I occasionally watch a movie or TV series there, but not nearly as frequently as I did when our local grocery store offered DVD rentals for $1-2 with a large selection (much larger than RedBox offers).

These days, if there's nothing good on Netflix, I play video games or read a book because both of those offer far more value/dollar. If the movie industry offered $2 rentals for everything other than new releasees, I'd watch more movies. I'm only willing to pay $5 to watch a movie if it's a new release and I really want to watch it. I also rarely go to the theater as well because $10+ is too much for that experience unless it's opening weekend for a film I've been waiting for (we usually go on Tuesdays for the discounted rate for regular entertainment).

I wish the film industry would recognize the opportunity they have that's evidenced by projects like PopcornTime. If they make a movie platform with a nearly complete catalogue, people will use it. It's annoying to check multiple streaming platforms to see where something is available, and it's annoying to pay $5/movie to rent (that's about discounted theater prices, but without the theater experience).

beatgammit··on Most airlines face bankruptcy by end of May, industry body warns
It certainly will suck in the short term, but I doubt long term demand for air travel will go down, so most should be able to be rehired at one of the airlines that remain.
beatgammit··on Most airlines face bankruptcy by end of May, industry body warns
And solar isn't "synthetic fuel". I don't think anyone is seriously recommending solar planes, at least not in the short term.
beatgammit··on Most airlines face bankruptcy by end of May, industry body warns
> invested in financial instruments

Which is what most people mean when they say "cash" in the context of company financials. As long as it's reasonably liquid, I consider it "cash". Investing in the company, on the other hand, is not liquid (e.g. hiring, buying planes, etc).

beatgammit··on One way to fight a coronavirus recession: $1k for every American
Neither? Markets have been overheated, so a correction makes a ton of sense.

What we need is to get over this pandemic as quickly as possible so we can stop disrupting trade and get people back to work. The news coming out of China is encouraging, and production seems to be slowly returning to normal.

Any discussion about UBI should be based on the long term merits, not a reaction to any current crisis. QE is a bit different, but honestly I think it does more harm than good much of the time, especially once it makes it through the political system.

beatgammit··on CDC says U.S. gatherings of over 50 people should be put off
I strongly disagree with imprisonment here, but I can get behind fines.
beatgammit··on Surviving the coronavirus, then testing positive again
I wonder what percent of jobs are reasonably safe to do (e.g. no forced close proximity to others). Office jobs are particularly bad and often easy to do from home, and many warehouse jobs don't have as close of proximity to other workers (many machines are operated by individuals), while jobs like trucking require almost none.
beatgammit··on Open letter from Italy to the international scientific community
Yeah, there would be rioting pretty much immediately if anyone tried that here, and I'm sure the same would happen elsewhere.

I'm personally a fan of controlled, opt-in infections to help speed up research for a vaccine along with moderate quarantine (cancel many public events, encourage self quarantine). It may not be as effective, but it's much less likely to end in riots.

beatgammit··on A Man Who Saw the Pandemic Coming
I went to Costco and saw people buying up to the limit on random stuff, and they end up with 6 months of toilet paper, 1 year worth of pasta, etc. I wanted one box of diapers (one lasts over a month), and there were only 4-5 boxes left when there's normally 20+, even when there's a good sale. I have never seen them be out of baby wipes, but they were out when I went (which is a shame because we just ran out). In fact, they had to shut down a local Costco because people are fighting over toilet paper.

COVID-19 isn't going to be some world ending thing, it's just going to put some supply pressure in the short term until production and distribution can ramp back up, but people are treating it like it will be. It's really frustrating.

beatgammit··on Italy suspends mortgage payments amid corona lockdown
The article states that the country is on lockdown, and there are fines for violating that. I assume a very significant portion of the workforce cannot work from home, and I didn't see anything about pay being continued if you can't work.

I don't know anything else about the state of things, but I'm sure automated systems and things that can be done remotely are allowed to continue, so if you want to pay your mortgage, I'm sure you can continue to do so.

beatgammit··on Angela Merkel estimates 60% to 70% of the German pop. will contract the virus
Well, there is. You infect them and keep them isolated until they recover. If you do that before the problem becomes rampant, you will have more healthy doctors available. However, if the virus mutates significantly, they may just get sick again.

It's possible, but probably not ethical.

beatgammit··on Angela Merkel estimates 60% to 70% of the German pop. will contract the virus
Right, but the longer it takes to get there, the more likely you are to either find a cure. Failing that, you at least reduce pressure on medical infrastructure, which means more people get meaningful care.
beatgammit··on Intel Abandoning 10nm, Planning to Use TSMC’s 6nm and 3nm for GPUs
No idea. I don't trust anything on wccftech.
beatgammit··on Hackers Can Clone Millions of Toyota, Hyundai, and Kia Keys
Why not include a percent? Are we talking about 10% of cars, or more like 80%? Is it mostly recent cars, or are cars from several years ago also affected?

It's not a terrible headline, but it could also be improved.

beatgammit··on Hackers Can Clone Millions of Toyota, Hyundai, and Kia Keys
Why couldn't it work like credit cards? Physically touch the car with the key like a normal key hole if the battery dies. The car can provide whatever small current it needs, and the key can be as complex as we want.
beatgammit··on Who is Facebook's mysterious “Lan Tim 2”?
I deleted my Facebook account some years ago. Even when I had one, most of my friends used it as a micro blog, image host, or free ad platform (e.g. "network marketing"), and the amount of meaningful socializing was slim to none.

Most of my socializing has been and continues to be done in person, over text, or over email. I do miss out on updates from distant family and friends, but the interaction on Facebook was always shallow anyway, so I don't feel like I'm missing much.

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