Most airlines face bankruptcy by end of May, industry body warns
ft.com
ft.com
Like an airline: people can hop on planes and go to places, to do business or meet people.
You can't do that with an ATM. ATMs don't fly.
And what is stopping people from creating businesses that don't do that?
It sounds much like a conspiracy theory to me. The mysterious world of finance that everybody just know to be evil.
I don't doubt that shady things happen. But there has to be a better explanation than "evil businessmen extract value". And how is it "extracting", when people get actual services in return? If I buy an apple at a supermarket, has the supermarket extracted money from me?
I don’t understand Amazon so I can’t really comment on it.
Netflix would probably do fine.
Apple would also likely do fine overall, but growth would reduce. It remains to be seen if the slowing growth would lead them to throw away what’s made them successful.
EasyJet, RyanAir, TuiFly all are famous for offering ridiculous prices like a €20 Hamburg-Barcelona roundtrip and then trying to recoup those ticket losses by charging through the nose for hand luggage, in-flight food, and by being very pushy in selling their duty-free goods.
In my opinion, those airlines have always been operating at a loss while burning through investor money, so I am not surprised the least that they are still losing money.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/756093/ryanair-net-profi...
Edit: As does EasyJet
It obviously is, even though these companies operate at minimum margins (which is why they go out of business so often). Nothing is sustainable during a global shock like the current one.
Theres just less room for error.
Any sane airline is going to try to file bankruptcy of some form now to protect themselves from new competitors that come around. There is bankruptcy provision for not paying debts for a few months while your reorganize. If you are in a tourism industry you should contact a lawyer and figure out the pros and cons of what you can do now to protect yourself in the future.
Why, then, can’t the airlines just issue bonds, like governments do in this situation? Large companies already do this to fulfill short-term dips (see https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commercial_paper); this would just be the longer-term version. As long as the dip will predictably resolve, banks should be willing to secure the bonds.
Let them die and only recreate a downsized aviation industry that's compatible with limiting climate change, with the medium-term goal to switch it to alternative fuels.
Synthetic jet fuel can be out of atmospheric carbon. (Chemically, it's jet fuel. Just synthesized instead of being pumped out of the ground.) It's more expensive than the out-of-the-ground stuff. But a lot of the price premium is currently due to a lack of economies of scale.
Airlines could go carbon neutral within a few years. Replacing the power plant is overkill.
Synthetic fuel is derived from hydrocarbons assembled from atmospheric C02. It can be powered by anything. Installed solar is irrelevant.
Anywhere. Nuclear. Wind. Waves. Initially, fossil fuels, because most energy comes from fossil fuels.
As would re-tooling (a) the economy to be less reliant on travel or (b) the entire aviation fleet to be e.g. battery-electric. Change is expensive. We're comparing costs, and when I've done that, synethetic fuel is the best near-term, i.e. within 50 years, solution.
> why would you use fossil fuels to extract CO2 out of the air
Big plants (can) burn much cleaner than jet engines. (Also, it's an interim step.)
>Big plants (can) burn much cleaner than jet engines. (Also, it's an interim step.)
Please show me how you extract more CO2 out of the air by burning fossil fuels than you release.
What's your energy source?
And once you've specified your energy source why are you using that source to make jet fuel instead of directly powering things like the electric grid?
Once the world is 85%+ on alternative energy we can worry about Jet airplanes.
Because we need planes. Or, to put it more simply, countries that fly will outperform those that don't.
Hydrocarbons are a great energy store. And we have a global fleet that burns them. For cars, we can go electric. But for weight-sensitive uses, it doesn't make sense to go battery.
There will always be Luddites who advocate a permanent quarantine. But if that's the only solution, we'll stick with the status quo. And the status quo is untenable.
Only once you are no longer using natural fuel (pumped oil) for ground stations anywhere in the world, only then does it make sense to start making synthetic fuel for airplanes.
Agreed.
> cheaper yet to buy it from the Saudis
Agreed. This would need to be a cost caused by regulation.
It's an interesting data point on how much the stock market has declined so far.
There are risks in this business and lenders and shareholders should have already taken that into account when they make their decisions. It's not the job of government to handle these risks.
We need to keep this industry going but also start to be more responsible about risk. And that will mean moderately higher ticket prices.
On a global scale we're seeing the results of living irresponsibly - individuals that have been spending all their earnings without putting anything away for a rainy day, and corporations too.
Of course, the government is going to bail out the enormous companies and leave the people to suffer through.
[1] https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/02/airline-industry-cuts-profit...
The fact they were not shows they're terrible at sustaining a long-term successful business, and they deserve to fail. Only well run future-looking companies will survive something like this. i.e. all those companies in Japan that have been around for eons.
Most companies would be correctly criticized for hoarding cash. Companies can also be sued for keeping too much cash on hand, as for example, is the case with apple.
In practical terms, they didn’t hoard much and what they did was invested in financial instruments, so it was still increasing money velocity in the economy.
Which is what most people mean when they say "cash" in the context of company financials. As long as it's reasonably liquid, I consider it "cash". Investing in the company, on the other hand, is not liquid (e.g. hiring, buying planes, etc).
Sounds like there should be a new law to prevent this kind of thing. As the other poster pointed out, Japanese companies that have been around for eons don't seem to have this problem, so it's quite likely they keep lots of cash in savings to weather major downturns in business.
Japanese companies that have lasted a long time are family companies that don't have obligations to the public. The government mandates that public company boards act in best interest of the public shareholders, which means distributing their profits or using them to make money.
In the US, half of all people having almost nothing to put away. Comparing this state of affairs to what corporations do with billion in profits is beyond parody.
Otherwise you're just setting the scene for large corporation bailouts every time there is a hiccup in the world.
I'd say any company that requires a bailout is incompetently run. Maybe that's too strong of a word, but by definition they're not "successfully" run.
So, what is important?
1. Maintaining a functional airline industry
2. Making sure the bondholders get back 100% of their loans?
3. Making sure shareholders don't lose their equity stake?
I would agree that #1 is important.
Companies typically do not keep a ton of money around because they're supposed to be distributing profits to the public (i.e., shareholders). Companies that do keep money around, like Apple, are correctly criticized for not re-investing the money into the economy (thus creating jobs and growth) and not returning it to investors (who would, with the dividend, presumably invest the money in another company that had a growth opportunity).
Like it or not, re-using profits is how we have achieved the modern way of life. Keeping money lying around does not spur the economy, which means fewer jobs, fewer products, and a stagnating economy.
If my tax money is being used to rescue a business, I want to either own a part of that business, or receive market-rate interest payments on it.
Contrary to popular belief, this did generally happen with the bank bailout:
But, the fact remains, due to interest, dividends and other revenue streams, the government has received more money back ($266.7 billion, according to the Treasury) than it handed out to banks under the bailout law ($245.2 billion). We rate this claim Mostly True.
https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2012/oct/25/barack-oba...
So, no, I was not happy with it. The government should have only stepped in to deal with a lack of liquidity, by providing appropriately priced loans - not to give out discounts.
This isn't true. If you personally "keep money lying around", that usually means putting it the bank, in a savings account, or maybe a CD. That money isn't doing nothing: it's being reinvested by the bank, earning them a return on their investment, and they're giving a little back to you in the form of interest. (Hopefully you're smart enough to put your main savings in a bank that actually gives you interest...)
It would be the same with any company. Saving money in low-risk investments would be the equivalent. That money is still being invested somewhere in the economy, just not in more volatile places.
Assuming they could sock all $28B in profit into a rainy day fund... how can you make any reasonable claim about airline responsibility without also addressing their operating expenses? taxes? investments into remaining competitive? While I absolutely don't favor bailouts no matter whether they acted irresponsibly or responsibly... all I can tell from your position is that you think $28B is a big number and so beat 'em up on that without any further consideration.
This is like asking Google to prepare for operation of their datacenters for three months without electricity. It’s so unthinkable in a modern society that you simply can’t plan and set aside resources for that.
Sure, they couldn’t have predicted this particular black swan event (although the idea that a pandemic couldn’t be resisted is kinda ridiculous considering people have been predicting one for long enough, to the point the previous US administration had set up a ton of infrastructure to prepare and plan for such a situation). But at this point it’s obvious airlines are gonna be affected by some black swan event or the other every 10 years or so.
Judging by what's happening around the world, we are going to see flight volume dropping by 90%, for months.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_eruptions_of_Eyjafjalla...
The current crisis is going to be worse. I'd say one month bare minimum. We have a flight scheduled a month from now, probably getting cancelled. Ryanair has currently grounded its fleet.
The virus spread so fast thanks to airlines. I think more expensive plane tickets make sense: cut back some of the travel & emissions, make people look more into local holidays, make companies look more into video conferencing.
So basically all airlines in the world would have to save 100% of profit for 5 years to survive a force major type of event?
This is simply not possible in any line business.
I strongly recommend you read a primer on corporate finance, but the gist is that creditors have first dibs on assets in a bankruptcy (and there may be multiple tiers of creditors), and shareholders usually get wiped out.
The tradeoff is that when times are good, shareholders can gain far more than creditors.
Now, if creditors really believe that the bad times will only be short-term, the credit markets may refinance the debt, or allow the airlines to issue more debt to cover the existing debt, allowing airlines to avoid bankruptcy, assuming that good times return in a timely fashion, as predicted / hoped.
If creditors believe that the bad times will last for the long-term, they can force bankruptcy, and then liquidate the assets in the hopes of recovering as much of their original investment as possible. As mentioned before, shareholders would get wiped out.
You said that this would be a "senseless destruction in value," but it's really not that simple. As an example, perhaps the proceeds from the sale of an airline's assets can be invested into promising treatments for COVID. Or perhaps the creditors have debts of their own to repay, and by liquidating the assets of an airline to cover their debts, they prevent a cascade of defaults that could take out an outsize portion of the economy. So it's not actually clear that the net effect on the economy would be a "senseless destruction in value."
Things change. New things often don't show up until the old thing has died.
The world existed for a long time before we had airlines. It won't cease to exist if many of them go out business.
I haven't flown in years. Lots of people would like to see people stop flying because it's hard on the environment.
This is potentially an opportunity to see something better rise from the ashes of a suddenly dying civilization that the world has long decried as unsustainable anyway.
airlines do bankrupt very often
https://simpleflying.com/bankrupt-airlines-2019/
They are hardly too big to fail (the ones who consider themselves essential can increase fees)
Someone else with immense capital and assets would buy American Airlines (maybe Steve Ballmer or Larry Ellison would lean into that; Ellison likes airlines). Someone else would buy United, perhaps a major financial firm, private equity.
Capitalism is not ill suited for this crisis. This is not the first time we've seen this. We had Capitalism in 1860-1870 and 1918 as well. What people didn't like about this process in the past, is the way it often consolidates economic returns further, it generates huge winners and losers (in a way that seems to most to be particularly predatory or unfair, as an emotional take), and society often feels taken advantage of by people with vast well-stocked fortunes.
Don't confuse whether it would work with whether people like it or not. It works in fact and we've seen it multiple times in the past, we know exactly what happens: there are big winners (those that were prepared to take advantage) and big losers.
Many people took vast economic advantage of the Civil War, not least of all by buying their way out of serving (hiring legal substitutes). Rockefeller for example did well in commodities at this time, prior to the Standard Oil days.
Given that the rich will survive this with a dent to their fortunes, while everyone else is risking losing their house, jobs, health, and even lives, this isn’t a feeling, but the reality.
If the outcome of this pandemic is Capitalism devolving into greater wealth concentration and inequality, and the consequence of that concentration is ever increasing precarity and material harm for everyone else, it is terribly ill suited for this and all other crises.
In a free society every free individual can think up a solution in a totilitan society on the other hand a smaller set of people will make the decision.
I like to think for myself and would prefer to let the question of a solution be handled by as many people as possible and based on reasoning and politely asking instead of appointing a group of technocrats to be worshipped as priests.
But the ruling class is nonetheless going to look after its own and leave you to the dogs. They have nothing but contempt for you. They don't give a shit what your opinion is or how this series of crises will disrupt your life, and the lives of those less fortunate and more precarious than yours.