1,041 karma · joined February 12, 2013
This is a perfectly valid reason to avoid heavy cannabis use before the age of 25.
$1.10B * 10% / 815000kW = $135
$1.10B * 10% / 851000kW = $130
365 * 24 * $0.04 = $350
Except that someone has to pay for it. AI companies are only willing to pay for power purchase agreements, not capital expenses. Same with the $7T of chip fab. Invest your money in huge capital expenditures and our investors will pay you for it on an annual basis until they get tired of losing money.
As long as the money doesn't go into someone's pocket, it's all good (except that Sam Altman is also getting equity but I assume they found a way to justify that.)
OpenAI will eventually be forced to convert from a public charity to a private foundation and will be forced to give away a certain percentage of their assets every year so this solves that problem also.
I agree that if you choose your first guess somewhat randomly in the 40-60 range (maybe not a uniform distribution though) Balmer would be forced to choose randomly and you would be back at a positive $0.20 EV. For example, you could flip 6 coins and add the number of heads, then flip another coin to decide whether you add or subtract the number of heads from 50 for your starting guess. But I think you would need to randomize your later guesses a bit also.
It seems like a lot of possibilities and I think you can get away with a minimum gap size of one, but let's assume you do 5 3-gaps at 1, 25, 50, 75, and 100 and 2-gaps everywhere else. So start with 51, then 26 and 76. Then go up or down 12, then 6, then 3. If you have a gap of two you flip a coin, if a gap of three you pick the middle one.
Or if you have them write down the number and you think it has double-digits you could put your 4-gaps below 20. Start with 53 and go up or down 24, 12, 6, and 3 (unless it is below 20, then it is multiples of four.) 59 would pay you a dollar.
Your starting guess could be anywhere from 37 to 64 without paying out more than a dollar, but if you start with an extreme, then low odd numbers and high even numbers will have a negative payout. However, I think you can still randomize sufficiently starting with 38 and 63, e.g. 63-31-15-7-3-1.
At age 38 I was diagnosed with very high blood pressure. I had not been going to a doctor and was having headaches and bloody noses so it might have been going on for years. The first drug they put me on was a diuretic. They also put me on potassium after low potassium levels which is common with a diuretic.
Eventually, they also put me on a beta-blocker, a calcium channel blocker, and an ACE inhibitor. So I was getting all four BP meds and ended up at high or maximum doses. Around age 50 my potassium levels were getting very low and they kept increasing my potassium to no effect.
Primary care and cardiologist were flummoxed so they sent me for a kidney MRI. The radiologist looked at my history and decided to also check the adrenal glands, which sit on top of the kidneys so that was his call.
Turns out I had primary hyperaldosteronism which causes low potassium and high blood pressure. Not clear if it was the cause all along because I'm not sure I had my potassium checked before starting the diuretic. I saw a very good endocrinologist who had tests done to confirm the MRI and make sure that they removed the correct adrenal gland and then I eventually went down to a low dose of only one BP med.