429 karma · joined November 22, 2021
While I have become less enthusiastic about rationalism (in the sense of this post, not in the sense of the philosophical tradition) over time, the space seems to consist mostly of nerdy people who try really hard to reason properly. Sure, they sometimes come to absurd conclusions, but in general they have interesting perspectives and analyses. Without data on the percentage of people who reach the cult-like status referenced in the post, it seems premature to deride the entire enterprise; in any sufficiently large population group you will have that type of behavior.
On the other hand the point about them being related in spirit to the various 'self-improvement', 'New Age', or whatever movements in California surely isn't WRONG, but it feels a bit... underdeveloped? I'm sure there are loads of connections, simply because the movement seems to be centered (in meatspace, anyway) in California. A more scholarly analysis explicitly drawing the connections would be more useful (and interesting!) than an ad hominem comparison to Scientology and the Manson family(!).
Many mathematicians dismissed the function. It was an anomaly, they said — the work of a pedant, mathematically useless.
This is low-key hilarious given how much of mathematics seems like pedantry to an outsider.Eleven years ago during my MSc. in theoretical physics I was writing Fortran code to solve scattering equations to serve as input into quantum field theory calculations. Since then I've worked for a bunch of startups, alternating between writing boring backend services and doing 'data science' that is often no more complicated than linear regression or writing SQL queries. The continual hype, toxic positivity, and unhinged growth expectations has made me essentially tap out mentally. I also consider this a 'waste of my talent' (not that I was ever really a great physicist!), but as I get older I am no longer sure what would have satisfied me in that regard (is this bad or good? - I honestly don't know). More money would be nice I guess. I typically get bored/frustrated and change companies every few years - I'm currently 3 years in at a fintech (elixir backend).
I can also assure you that Julii exist at e.g. Tesla, which employees over 100000 people.
I don't want to start an Elon flame war, but from what I've read I would be sceptical of attributing his business success to technical acumen (which is not to deny that SpaceX builds very cool and impressive rockets, or that the businesses he own employ very smart and motivated people).
Perhaps I am becoming overly cynical as I approach middle age, but it seems to me that this phenomenon exists because the people who have the ultimate decision making powers in businesses are business people. Businesses exist to serve the egos and goals of the people who run them - from their perspective things like technical competence and honesty are often secondary to achieving business outcomes or impressing upper management (it is telling that these are somehow different things). Julius is clearly better at this than the sad programmers who merely know how to code.
I would dearly love to believe that an alternative is possible, but there seem to be powerful incentives pushing the world towards this scenario. For many of us the best we can hope for is a work place that is not too dysfunctional, that respects your personal boundaries while paying an ok salary. I count myself fortunate to work at such a place, while dreaming of other things.
I am tempted to actually test this (i.e. see if there's a speedup in Python), but I don't have the time right now.
Beautiful sentiment, also in other areas of life, thank you.
Koestler claims that Martianus Capella's system, wherein Venus and Mercury orbit around the Sun, while the rest of the planets orbit around the Earth, is originally due to Herakleides (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heraclides_Ponticus, not to be confused with Heraclitus), a 4th century BC Greek philosopher. But I see that wikipedia links to an article [1] by Eastwood from 1992 that claims this to be a complete misattribution lacking any evidence. Link for the interested: https://adsabs.harvard.edu/pdf/1992JHA....23..233E.
[1] Eastwood, B.S., 1992. Heraclides and heliocentrism: Texts, diagrams, and interpretations. Journal for the History of Astronomy, 23(4), pp.233-260.
While it does contain some speculation that is, in my opinion, poorly grounded, overall it is very informative and does a good job of dispelling some of the oversimplified narratives that are told about e.g. Galileo's persecution by the Church. (Of course since this is HN I can't wait to hear somebody tell me about some oversimplified narratives due to Koestler!)
It's also just very written and full of amazing anecdotes - e.g. about how Kepler's mother was accused of witchcraft(!)
It will be interesting if/when these models start proving major open problems, e.g. the Riemann Hypothesis. The sociological impact on the mathematical community would certainly be acute, and likely lead to a seismic shift in the understanding of what research-level mathematics is 'for'. This discussion already appears to be in progress. As an outsider I have no idea what the timeline is for such things (2 years? 10? 100?).
On the plus side, AlphaProof has the benefit over ordinary LLMs in their current form in that it does not pollute our common epistemological well, and its output is eminently interrogable (if you know Lean at last).
The worst I can say is that I find his predictions around AI (i.e. the scaling laws) to be concerning.
edit: having now read the linked interview, I can provide a clearly non-misanthropic quote, in response to the interviewer asking gwern what kind of role he hopes to play in people's lives:
I would like people to go away having not just been entertained or gotten some useful information, but be better people, in however slight a sense. To have an aspiration that web pages could be better, that the Internet could be better: “You too could go out and read stuff! You too could have your thoughts and compile your thoughts into essays, too! You could do all this!”