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avianlyric

7,469 karma · joined March 4, 2016

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avianlyric··on 4-hour battery storage is cheaper to install than gas turbines all across globe
Substantially smaller than building and running gas peaker plants
avianlyric··on Turn off Apple Intelligence on macOS 27 and get its disk space back
> resistors that reduced incoming electricity

Resistors used like that are notorious for being both large, and getting hot when used. Both things that are tricky to cram into a small handheld device.

You also have to wonder what the point of doing all this faffing is. Mobile phone batteries are optimised for energy density above almost anything else, which comes with tradeoffs, include much more rapid natural degradation overtime that can’t be reduced or limited by gentle charging cycles. A phones battery is basically guaranteed to be unhealthy after 4-5 years regardless of what you do or don’t do.

Just because two batteries have the same basic chemistry (Lithium-ion of example), doesn’t mean their behaviour is the same. There’s a lot of possible customisation and tweaking within that single chemistry envelope.

avianlyric··on Vermont replacing power plants with home batteries
There’s probably a significant element of consumer batteries being so good, so easy to setup, and so cheap to buy. That it actually ends up being more economical to take this approach, than build dedicated utility scale battery storage.

With consumer units, you can reasonably expect that they’ll operate with zero maintenance and zero direct supervision for a decade plus. If the cost of those units is low enough, that reduced operational burden starts looking very attractive, especially if you want to scale up your battery capacity across your network very quickly.

avianlyric··on The Normalization of Inexplicable Failures
If you’ve validated the Jev scores, then it means you’ve built and run the evals. The exact thing the author is arguing needs to be done if you’re using Jev.

So they’re not dunking on that, they’re dunking on the idea that you can just trust Jev confidence scores without actually doing any validation.

avianlyric··on The Normalization of Inexplicable Failures
> That doesn’t mean there’s anything wrong with building good ai engineering systems in areas where it works magically.

Without the evals, how do you know it works magically? I think that’s the entire point of the authors article, people are using AI tools, and trusting the AI own evaluation of its performance, without making any attempt to validate if the AIs confidence actually correlates to anything meaningful.

From what I’ve seen, the result tends to be very exciting demos, followed by incredibly mediocre results when deployed into a real environment. The lack of critical evaluation then provides a double whammy, because it takes longer than it should to realise the system isn’t actually working correctly, and then the team lacks the skills and understanding needed to improve the system they’ve built. You just kinda have to hope that the next model release is going to magically result in better performance for your particular scenario, which won’t be able to measure due to the lack of evals.

avianlyric··on We're gonna need a lot more mathematicians
Yes, and understanding the effects of a medication is different to understanding how the medication has that effect.

The medical field as a whole isn’t generally interested in understanding how medication, only in empirical measuring and qualify the effects.

avianlyric··on We're gonna need a lot more mathematicians
> For truly difficult problems, it’s entirely possible that humans are simply incapable of comprehending why a solution is true. But ultimately the practical value of applying that solution to the real world is going to eclipse our need to understand it.

This is hardly new or novel, you’ve just described huge chunks of existing engineering disciplines. There is still no complete model that explains why airplane wings work, there are lots of very useful models, but all of them have fundamental flaws where their behaviour completely breaks down in certain very possible scenarios. Notably scenarios where airplane wings don’t spontaneously either stop working or explode.

We also built the entire commercial airliner system decades before we even had computers capable of doing the aerodynamic analysis of airplanes, but none of that prevented us from creating huge engineering disciplines around the empirical data we did have, and slowly chip away at the underlying theories as maths and computing improved over time.

So we’ve always lived in a world where we extract value from systems we fundamentally don’t understand. But that’s never stopped us from working to understand them anyway, and deriving even further value from that improved understanding.

avianlyric··on Federal judge orders Texas to air condition all prisons by the end of 2029
Not entirely sure what European A/C regulations you’re referring to. Europe doesn’t have A/C because historically it’s not been needed, and when you have cities that are hundreds of years old, often filled with buildings that are designed to passively keep cool, it’s a right pain in the arse to retrofit everything.

As a result Europe doesn’t culturally expect A/C every where, and has been slow to adopt it. But obviously climate change is forcing many to reconsider those cultural norms.

avianlyric··on Two-tier encryption in the UK
Yeah, I don’t think you have any understanding of how the crown interacts with the rest of the UK government.

There are some oddities, but the idea that the crown could actually exercise any of their powers, without causing a constitutional crisis, and UK rapidly becoming a republic, is farcical.

> The King gives 'the kings speech' which is used to set the governments legislative agenda to parliment.

You’re aware that the kings speech is written by the government, not the crown. It’s how the government lays out its parliamentary agenda to parliament, the civil service and the country at large. Heck there’s a whole ritual around the crown having to beg permission to enter the commons etc to emphasise the point that crown enters and speaks at the pleasure of the commons.

> The king also steers diplomatic efforts abroad.

No, the king is given instructions by the foreign office on what he’s expected to help with. Every trip and meeting the king does is checked and cleared by the uk government, and they can and have vetoed trips before.

> every single aspect of UKs democracy can be cut by the King whenever he wants.

You should watch the Jonny English movies, they’re a great documentary on how this could happen.

avianlyric··on Two-tier encryption in the UK
“Getting the police involved” is a lot less exciting in the UK compared to the US. Our police don’t have a nasty habit of getting scared in the dark and shooting anything that moves. Mostly because most officers in the UK don’t carry firearms, and the UK often struggles to recruit officers into firearms units because officers just don’t want to mess with guns.

As a result getting the police involved is often little more than a slightly awkward chat at the front door where the officers politely ask you to stop being arsehole, but everyone knows the police are a bit limited in what they can actual do. Either because no crime has actually been committed, or because they don’t really have the time to properly investigate even if a crime had been committed.

Actually getting arrested takes some effort. The police really don’t want to deal with all the paperwork and mess that comes afterwards if they can avoid it.

avianlyric··on Claude discovers a novel enzyme system with CRISPR-like repeats
What use does an AI and robots have for all those resources?

Most of our economy is powered by human consumption, humans making things to sell to other humans, that then either transform it further and sell it to other humans, or consume it directly. I don’t think an AI needs to buy millions of iPhones a year, or consume millions of metric tons of grain each year, or buy luxury cars so they can show them off to their AI friends.

At best an AI might use all those resources to build out further compute and expand its own capabilities. But at that point nobody should be worrying about competing in the labour market, they should be worried about AI making our planet unliveable for carbon based life.

avianlyric··on ZK-JPEG: Zero-Knowledge Image Editing and Compression
There’s been a few, but it’s becoming so common people have stopped noticing, but here’s a few recent ones:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/ce9yydgmzdvt?post=asset%3Aae...

https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260417-press-assoc...

There’s now even a wiki article on the usage of AI generated images in American politics, mostly dealing with the obvious slop that Trump has produced, rather than insidious edits of real images

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI-generated_content_in_Americ...

avianlyric··on Apple Reference Image: A New Approach for Verified Photography
The approach assumes that most people don’t have the ability to directly attack the image sensor itself. It’s a little buried in the article, but creating reference images involves having the actual image sensor sign the raw data it captures using a key unique to that sensor. The rest of the device can’t tamper with data anymore.

I don’t think there any many people out there with the right equipment to carefully ablate the top of a sensor off, so they can directly inject their own data into the start of signing process. It’s not impossible, but it’s also not the kind of thing most people and organisations are going to be capable of doing.

> The creation of a secure digital negative begins with a secure boot of the camera sensor into a specialized reference capture mode. The mode instructs the sensor to cryptographically sign pixel data immediately after capture, and prevents the sensor firmware from modifying the data.

avianlyric··on Apple Reference Image: A New Approach for Verified Photography
> Like with C2PA, the entire thing hinges on nobody being able to dump keys or trick the TPM into signing arbitrary image data.

Is the whole point here that Apple have baked the TPM and keys directly into the sensor. So extracting the keys or injecting arbitrary data, will likely involve the destructive delidding of the image sensor itself.

That’s a significantly higher bar you need to jump, than any approach where the sensor and TPM are separate modules with no cryptographic capabilities in the sensor itself.

From the article > The creation of a secure digital negative begins with a secure boot of the camera sensor into a specialized reference capture mode. The mode instructs the sensor to cryptographically sign pixel data immediately after capture, and prevents the sensor firmware from modifying the data.

avianlyric··on Apple Reference Image: A New Approach for Verified Photography
> A better fix is to take photos with all three iPhone cameras simultaneously, ideally as a 2-3s video, and use the parallax/multiple perspectives to extract depth information.

I think iPhones already do this (although without taking multiple seconds of video). iOS is capable of generating pretty accurate depth data even on devices with no LiDAR unit.

avianlyric··on Suspected sabotage causes major Netherlands rail disruption
That does depend on the productivity being lost. No doubt many of the people who were unable to commute that day would have been doctors and nurses.

I think it would be of a stretch to actually claim that this specific incident caused loss of life, but it’s possible to see how such wide sabotage, especially conducted over a number of days, could result in compromised emergency services and result in loss of life.

Protests also tend to be more effective if the protesters involved actually make some clear demands about what they want. Simply breaking shit isn’t much of a protest.

avianlyric··on Dario, Please
The vast majority of the public agree that climate change is real and that human activity is at least a contributing factor. They’ve agreed on that for quite a few years now, and yet there’s little indication that we’re going to pause or slow down our consumption of fossil fuels.

I strikes me as unlikely that public opinion will succeed with AI where it’s failed with other existential crises.

avianlyric··on What do Visa and Mastercard do? An intro to card networks
You could just do what all of Europe does and just include the tax in the listed retail price, rather than only tacking it on at the end.
avianlyric··on What do Visa and Mastercard do? An intro to card networks
This depends heavily on the country you’re in. In the UK banks are required to refund you within a single business day if they don’t have any evidence that the customer isn’t trying to defraud the bank themselves.

They try to squirm out of that of course. But in general getting your money back isn’t too tricky even with a debit card.

avianlyric··on What do Visa and Mastercard do? An intro to card networks
The EU caps all card interchange fees at 0.3% for credit cards and 0.2% for debit, which is an order of magnitude lower than some of the fees in the US.

That’s why you don’t see the same kinds of credit card deals in the EU compared to the US.

avianlyric··on Can I opt out of my input or output data being used for training?
The credit reporting agencies lost the data of normal people, they didn’t lose their customers proprietary internal data. The credit agencies didn’t loose or misplace their customers data, so obviously their customers don’t really care that much, and the credit agencies weren’t sued into oblivion.

But I can guarantee you that if a companies internal data got leaked or misused, then every single enterprise customer of that lab would turn around and start suing them. As an enterprise customer you would be foolish not to, if only if figure out via discovery just how badly you got screwed.

You want to see how nasty that can get. Just go and look at what Apple is doing to OpenAI at the moment. Do you really think Apple wouldn’t find a way to sue a lab into oblivion if they discovered a lab had secretly started training on their data?

avianlyric··on Doctors are finally learning to manage antidepressant withdrawal
GP is talking about using SSRIs for treating arachnophobia, not depression.
avianlyric··on Phoenix tried a reflective coating on black asphalt; noon surface heat fell 12°F
Not really, there’s a number of different concrete binders available including cement, bitumen (used for asphalt), lime (very old binder), even epoxy.

Concrete is a material that uses any binder with rock aggregate. But in everyday usage people mean to refer to cement concrete.

Asphalt is a specific type of concrete that uses a bituminous binder. So asphalt vs non-asphalt isn’t very helpful because non-asphalt either means nothing at all, or any other concrete that uses a non-bituminous binder, and there are plenty of other options.

Clearly GP was intending comparison to be to cement concrete, rather than say, toothpaste concrete, PVA glue concrete, or a number of other technically valid concretes, but obviously not practical.

avianlyric··on Anthropic's best AI model struggles to attract users as cheaper tools thrive
Not really, that’s what discovery is for. You just ask Anthropic and OpenAI to hand over every internal document and message that contains your companies name, or matches any reasonable query about where training data comes from.

It very hard for a company to do anything without leaving some kind of paper trail behind that can be discovered in court. Not without crippling their own operations by simply refusing to digitise or write down anything.

Lots of companies filled with people working very hard to obscure their shady practices have been hoisted by their own internal docs. Just look at any major Uber, Google, Apple, Microsoft lawsuit. Do really think Anthropic and OpenAI are gonna be better at destroying their paper trail before the lawsuit starts?

avianlyric··on Phoenix tried a reflective coating on black asphalt; noon surface heat fell 12°F
Just to be a pedant, and because this fact tends to surprise people, asphalt is concrete.

Concrete is a generally defined as any mineral aggregate (so rocks and stones) mixed with a binder (normally cement, but bitumen in the case of asphalt).

As for why roads are normally made out of “normal” concrete, it’s very expensive to build roads like that. Pavements are cheaper to build out of concrete because they only carry the weight of pedestrians, not lots of rolling vehicles. You need a pretty thick slab with rebar in it if you want to build a road surface from it, due to how weak cement concrete is under tension. Asphalt concrete cheats by being flexible, so minor imperfections in the surface or sub-base don’t become sources of critical failures (although they can become pot holes). Asphalt is also cheaper and easier to patch repair, but doesn’t last as long as proper cement road surfaces.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asphalt_concrete

avianlyric··on Felony Bench
> but they don't have laws that make it a criminal offense to negligently damage property or hack a website.

Most of them do, but they don’t get used very often. They seem to popup in vandalism cases where public artwork has been damaged by some drunk person doing something stupid. They don’t intend to damage anything, but damage results anyway due to their negligence when considering the consequences of their actions.

I think if you want to get super technical, in the UK there isn’t an offence for damage caused by negligence, but there is an offence for damage caused by recklessness, which is a higher bar than negligence. Usually it means you knew your actions risked causing damage, and you did it anyway, even if you didn’t actually intend to cause the damage.

An example would be gluing something to a public artwork, it’s kinda obvious that would likely damage the artwork when removing the glue, but you didn’t intend to cause that damage. Or perhaps sliding down a surface and scratching it in the process. Your goal was to just slide down the surface, not scratch it, but it should have been obvious that scratching could have happened.

avianlyric··on Rust Glancer: Rust LSP using 100x less RAM
It looks like it only partially reindexes on save, but it completely reindexes the single file that’s saved, rather than doing partial reindex of the file on every keystroke like rust-analyser.

But importantly it’s not reindexing the entire project, which is the expensive operation. So you have higher peak RAM when opening a brand new project, but much lower RAM usage while working on the project.

avianlyric··on Illinois just passed a law that puts Linux on the hook for age verification
That’s cute, but it doesn’t really scale. Organised crime groups aren’t interested in laundering a few $100k at a go. They’re moving and laundering millions, you can’t put that through a casino without it being very obvious.

There is a huge international criminal industry that exists to find and hire money mules, and launder eye watering amounts of cash. Where I worked, we broadly assumed that the police weren’t interested in fraud or money laundering unless it was measured in 10s of millions. We reported everything, of course, but we only got call backs for really big schemes.

If you’re just committing fraud measured in $100ks, the odd of anyone bothering to investigate, and attempt to bring criminal charges, was basically zero.

avianlyric··on Illinois just passed a law that puts Linux on the hook for age verification
Hasn’t the right to ask existed since the invention of consent laws?

The state being able demand a persons age, and gate their behaviour based on that, has existed for hundreds of years so far. During that entire time the requirement to be truthful has also existed otherwise the laws would be meaningless.

All that’s changing now, is figuring out how that extends into the digital realm. I personally find the argument that the digital realm is somehow special compared to the physical realm, and thus certain laws simply shouldn’t apply when “done on a computer”, difficult to reconcile.

avianlyric··on Illinois just passed a law that puts Linux on the hook for age verification
> Anti-money-laundering is a comparable field, as all the AML regulations and laws are ineffective at identifying money launderers, but they're wonderful for verifying (auditing and prosecuting) tax compliance.

As someone who’s implemented AML, KYC, and tax reporting functions in a bank. I think you would be very surprised at how shit they are for tax auditing at scale. Unless the tax man is specifically auditing you, and basically requesting all your transaction details, the reporting that banks do would only allow tax agencies to catch the most brazen and incompetent tax dodgers.

All of the tools however do make much harder to perform money laundering, forcing criminals to recruit and pay huge numbers of naive bank customers to allow criminals to launder money via their personal accounts, using them as money mules. Which then gets flagged and shutdown pretty quick by banks because the behaviour is generally pretty obvious.

Unfortunately (or fortunately depending on your perspective) banks can’t/don’t coordinate on identified money mules or know launderers, so criminals just move on to other banks and repeat.

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