HNHacker News
TopNewBestAskShowJobs

avalys

6,484 karma · joined May 19, 2017

submissionscomments
avalys··on AirPods Max 2
Like others here, I don’t have this problem. I often leave them in my backpack for weeks between airplane flights, etc.
avalys··on Urea prices
Up 30% is not “nearly doubles”.
avalys··on Facebook is cooked
Yeah, if you haven't used a social network for years, and nor do your friends, and you log in to the social network, you get pretty trash content. This shouldn't be surprising.
avalys··on Luce: First Electric Ferrari
This looks like the controls for a very stylish Italian delivery van. Not an exotic sports car.
avalys··on The TSA's New $45 Fee to Fly Without ID Is Illegal
What is an example of such a condition?
avalys··on [dead]
Ridiculous nonsense. Boycott Fedex because of a $2.3M delivery contract with ICE? Cancel Spectrum internet because there is an ICE field office in Texas that uses them? Cancel Comcast because they provide cable TV? Unsubscribe from Netflix because...no reason?

No wonder it is organized by a professor of marketing who has been building a personal brand of hating the tech companies for a decade.

Boycott this performative nonsense.

avalys··on Amazon cuts 16k jobs
Firing a bunch of ineffective managers because they can easily be replaced by AI seems like a net improvement to me.
avalys··on A macOS app that blurs your screen when you slouch
You can measure my productivity by how slouched I am.

Sitting up straight at my desk, chair locked, perfect posture? I’m doing nothing, maybe looking through System Preferences to change the system highlight color.

Sliding down in my chair like jelly, with my shoulders where my butt should be and my head resting on the lumbar support? I’m building the next iPhone and it’ll be done by 2 AM.

avalys··on ISO PDF spec is getting Brotli – ~20 % smaller documents with no quality loss
This article is AI slop.
avalys··on California is free of drought for the first time in 25 years
This is a great example of how patronizing policies developed by intellectual authorities backfire in the real world.

The premise is, the general population is too stupid to do the right thing themselves and need to be reminded of the drought by being inconvenienced by completely ineffective performative policies.

All this actually does in practice is diminish trust in authorities to make good decisions. If the drought policies are bogus, which other ones are too? Fuel economy standards? Air quality? OSHA?

Instead of this nonsense - just allow the market to set the price of water based on what’s available.

Of course, the answer there is usually “Oh but there are special interests that need to be able to consume as much water as they want without paying more for it, even in a drought!” And thus as usual the problem is not the personal conduct of individual citizens but corrupt and spineless politicians who are not actually interested in solving any problems.

avalys··on Electricity use of AI coding agents
No! What a disaster. Enforce the costs of externalities as close to the source as possible. If electricity costs more money charge more money for electricity. Don’t add some “regulation” to force end users to pay more based on your estimate of how much more you think electricity should cost.
avalys··on Apple testing new App Store design that blurs the line between ads and results
Not obvious to me that this is worse or as user-hostile as many seem to presume.

Previously the blue background made the ad result look more highlighted and more prominent.

Now it is just like the other results - not special or better.

Yes, the HN audience knows the visual convention indicates that the blue background represents an ad. Does your everyday user know that or do they assume the blue results are better?

avalys··on Nuclear elements detected in West Philippine Sea
This is much less interesting than the headline suggests. 1.5 times background levels, of a single very long-lived isotope, is not much of an increase.

This doesn’t indicate that there has been a recent undisclosed accident or other newsworthy event as you might be imagining.

avalys··on Scott Adams has died
I don’t see the supposed hypocrisy of mocking the absurd and incompetent ways in which downsizing is handled, yet acknowledging that it is sometimes a net benefit to carry out.
avalys··on ChatGPT Health is a marketplace, guess who is the product?
In one example, AWS has two options for automatic deletion of objects in S3 buckets that are versioned.

"Expire current versions" means that the object will be automatically deleted after some period.

"Permanently delete non-current versions" means that old revisions will be permanently removed after some period.

I asked ChatGPT for advice on configuring a bucket. Within a long list of other instructions, it said "Expire noncurrent versions after X days". In this case, such a setting does not exist, and the very similar "expire current versions" is exactly the wrong behavior. "Permanently delete noncurrent versions" is the option needed.

The prompt I used has other information in it that I don't want to share.

avalys··on ChatGPT Health is a marketplace, guess who is the product?
That’s not how courts and laws work. If you cheat and use other illegal factors to compute a premium for each person, and then create an AI model that effectively looks up your illegally calculated premium of each person by their location, they’re going to reach the obvious conclusion - you are calculating a premium using illegal factors.
avalys··on ChatGPT Health is a marketplace, guess who is the product?
All we can do is share anecdotes here, but I have found ChatGPT to be confidently incorrect about important details in nearly every question I ask about a complex topic.

Legal questions, question about AWS services, products I want to buy, the history a specific field, so many things.

It gives answers that do a really good job of simulating what a person who knows the topic would say. But details are wrong everywhere, often in ways that completely change the relevant conclusion.

avalys··on ChatGPT Health is a marketplace, guess who is the product?
Why not? If the only factors allowed to be used in settings premiums are age, location and smoking status, then those are the only parameters that could be input to an AI model, no?
avalys··on When Kitty Litter Caused a Nuclear Catastrophe
Not really a catastrophe, more like “problem”.
avalys··on A4 Paper Stories
Yeah, I’ve used a sheet of paper as a ruler too...

As regards metric/A* paper sizes, it seems like just a coincidence that this scheme resulted in a standard size that is useful for everyday documents, since it only works for powers of 2 and starts with the definition of 1 square meter. If a meter were 1.5x smaller or larger, then I don’t think there would be a standard size that works so well.

EDIT: Being curious about this, I did some more reading, and discovered there is a “B” series of paper sizes that maintain the same ratio relationship, but are exactly in between all the A sizes! That’s useful.

avalys··on AI sycophancy panic
"The anti-sycophancy turn seems to mask a category error about what level of prophetic clarity an LLM can offer. No amount of persona tuning for skepticism will provide epistemic certainty about whether a business idea will work out, whether to add a line to your poem, or why a great movie flopped."

What a lot of people actually want from an LLM, is for the LLM to have an opinion about the question being asked. The cool thing about LLMs is that they appear capable of doing this - rather than a machine that just regurgitates black-and-white facts, they seem to be capable of dealing with nuance and gray areas, providing insight, and using logic to reach a conclusion from ambiguous data.

But this is the biggest misconception and flaw of LLMs. LLMs do not have opinions. That is not how they work. At best, they simulate what a reasonable answer from a person capable of having an opinion might be - without any consistency around what that opinion is, because it is simply a manifestation of sampling a probability distribution, not the result of logic.

And what most people call sycophancy is that, as a result of this statistical construction, the LLM tends to reinforce the opinions, biases, or even factual errors, that it picks up on in the prompt or conversation history.

avalys··on OpenAI's cash burn will be one of the big bubble questions of 2026
If the “moat” is not AI technology itself but merely sufficient other lines of business to deploy it well, then that’s further evidence that venture investments in AI startups will yield very poor returns.
avalys··on OpenAI's cash burn will be one of the big bubble questions of 2026
I’m not saying that no company will ever have an advantage. But with the pace of advances slowing, even if others are 6-12 months behind OpenAI, the conclusion is the same.

Personally I find GPT 5.2 to be nearly useless for my use case (which is not coding).

avalys··on OpenAI's cash burn will be one of the big bubble questions of 2026
AI is going to be a highly-competitive, extremely capital-intensive commodity market that ends up in a race to the bottom competing on cost and efficiency of delivering models that have all reached the same asymptotic performance in the sense of intelligence, reasoning, etc.

The simple evidence for this is that everyone who has invested the same resources in AI has produced roughly the same result. OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, Meta, Deepseek, etc. There's no evidence of a technological moat or a competitive advantage in any of these companies.

The conclusion? AI is a world-changing technology, just like the railroads were, and it is going to soon explode in a huge bubble - just like the railroads did. That doesn't mean AI is going to go away, or that it won't change the world - railroads are still here and they did change the world - but from a venture investment perspective, get ready for a massive downturn.

avalys··on Maybe the default settings are too high
I worked with a guy that operated like this, a technical expert in a very specialized domain. You'd ask him a question - he'd just stare at you in silence for 60s or more, and then give a very well-considered answer that you couldn't get from anyone else in the world.

His manager was used to this and sort of enjoyed the mystique of this monk-like expert that he was responsible for.

I once was in a meeting where we had to talk to the great expert on the phone. Let's just say his name was Otto. Of course, he worked remote quite often, in the days before Zoom. His manager calls him and puts the phone on speakerphone for the room to hear.

Manager: Otto, we need your input on <long technical problem>.

<60 seconds of silence>

Otto: Yes, I think that might work, but you'll run into <other problems>.

Manager: Well, yes, we've considered that, but <explanation>

A few minutes of reasonably normal conversation ensues between the assembled group and Otto. Then:

Manager: Well, I think then that this is a pretty good solution, as long as Otto agrees.

Manager looks around the table, clearly waiting for Otto's concurrence

<60 seconds of silence>

<90 seconds of silence>

<120 seconds of silence>

People are starting to get uncomfortable. The manager makes a reassuring face. This is normal for those of us that work closely with the great expert, do not lose faith.

<240 seconds of silence>

Manager briefly lets slip a concerned look, then quickly hides it

<360 seconds of silence>

Manager: Um, Otto?

Otto: Oh, I thought I was waiting for you.

avalys··on Reasons not to become famous (2020)
Most of his reasons are related to “you have to deal with crazy people who focus their crazy on you”.

Tim Ferris is known for somewhat hyperbolic self-help content. He talks about the millions of people who follow him or consume his content regularly.

I’d suggest that the audience for people who obsessively consume this kind of self-help content is probably self-selected for a high proportion of crazy people.

So, his experience is probably well outside the norm.

avalys··on Roomba maker goes bankrupt, Chinese owner emerges
In what sense is a sale to Amazon “worrying” compared to bankruptcy?
avalys··on Bad Dye Job
I’m not sure you’re drawing the right conclusion. It’s possible that Gruber’s regular sources know who Lemay is and just never talked about him much.
avalys··on Kilauea erupts, destroying webcam [video]
Volcanic ash is particularly bad because it is so abrasive, having been freshly formed without any opportunity for erosion to smooth it down like regular dust.
avalys··on Kilauea erupts, destroying webcam [video]
Personally I’m looking forward to a nearby supernova or giant meteor impact!
← PreviousPage 2 of 33Next →