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asr

879 karma · joined April 13, 2010

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asr··on The Ad Blocking Wars
This distinction is generally made when economists think about advertising too -- for example: http://economics.virginia.edu/sites/economics.virginia.edu/f...

Though I've never heard "advertising" and "marketing" used to describe information content vs. persuasion, it would be a great shorthand.

asr··on How and Why I Taught My Toddler to Read (2010)
"A sample of 250 kids isn't that accurate... And anecdotally..."

A sample of 250 could be wrong but at least it's a study, and so much better than an anecdote.

It's also much better than the original article, which says, as justification for teaching children to read early, "I will wait for the results of empirical studies before insisting on definitive claims, but my guesses are as follows.... Again, I know this is just speculation, but it seems very reasonable to me, and in the absence of better evidence, I feel justified in acting on what seems very reasonable."

So, to sum up: the best evidence we have says this does not work.

asr··on Fed Ends Zero-Rate Era
Not sure I understand your question. Are you saying the fed is wrong here and raising rates into the teeth of a likely recession?

If that's your question, good luck finding someone who knows the answer, but I will note that when the energy sector goes downhill because energy is cheap, that helps, not hurts, a lot of the rest of the economy--energy is an input.

asr··on An Analysis of Nespresso
http://www.keurig.com/kold
asr··on How misbehaving at school made one man a multimillionaire
google search - some claim The Algorithm didn't make that much difference

How old are you? The algorithm made a difference :)

asr··on Apple now rejecting apps with Pebble Smartwatch support
I upvoted you as you make a good point. But a quick note: you can't be a convicted monopolist. "Monopolization" is illegal, but that requires both monopoly power and anticompetitive conduct. Monopoly power on its own is not illegal (at least theoretically).
asr··on New York Discovers Wall Street Charges Fees
The opposite, actually. With those sorts of assets you have to start getting worried about algorithms front-running your trades and things like that.

Also, "the market" is big.

asr··on [dead]
linkbait title. from the article:

[The researcher's] theory is that people who sleep for more than eight hours sometimes have an underlying health problem that is not yet showing in other symptoms.

So, it's not the long sleep that is causing the increased mortality risk, it's the hidden illness.

TLDR there is a correlation between sleeping longer and decreased health. Not worth three minutes of your time.

asr··on How Millennials Get News
I don't care about how the war in Iraq is going.... I don't care how many people are dying in a genocide on the other side of the world.

I am sure this is not quite how you mean it, but to me this comes across as saying "if it doesn't affect my life, or my friends, then who cares." You should care about things that don't directly impact your life -- partly because you can make a difference in these things, sometimes, if you get involved.

Time to get out of the shire and see the world, bilbo.

asr··on How Many Mutual Funds Routinely Rout the Market? Zero
The entire point of decades of research, and the above article, is that next to nobody can reliably tell you in advance which stocks are "the dogs." I'm glad for you, but if you want to convince me your active funds can reliably beat the market you would need to provide me a lot more data, as you are swimming upstream against a raging torrent of empirical research.
asr··on The future of work: There’s an app for that
That is the implicit exchange between employee and employer. I will provide you with the opportunity to profit from my labour; you will provide me with security.

Interesting, but I can't say I agree. Some jobs are compensated in risky, performance-based ways already (e.g. sales). And conversely, if everyone prefers job security, freelancing websites could attract better-quality workers by becoming more like employers.

There are a number of other theories for why firms exist, but the classic explanation is that it reduces transaction costs if you can bug Jill down the hall for 10 minutes of her time instead of hiring an outside contractor. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Theory_of_the_firm

asr··on Our Solar System Isn't Normal
Agreed. For anyone else who routinely reads comments without reading the article, if this is still the top comment, I'd suggest you just go skim the article.

(Aside: I'd guess it's because there are people like me, who often read comments before or without reading the article, that a well-written but not on-point comment like this can get upvoted. I wonder how you'd fix that?)

asr··on Appeals court upholds legality of Aereo’s “tiny antennas” scheme
As a law student, I think both of these are defensible positions, and neither approach bothers me. I like the result as a policy matter, but don't know enough about the precedents or the Copyright Act to comment on the result as a legal matter.

TLDR of the opinion for the rest of HN:

"Public performances" are subject to copyright protection. The Copyright Act says: "To perform or display a work 'publicly' means to transmit or otherwise communicate a performance or display of the work to a [public place] or to the public, by means of any device or process, whether the members of the public capable of receiving the performance or display receive it in the same place or in separate places and at the same time or at different times." That last part was written specifically so that cable companies are engaged in public performances (three boos for Congressional idiots who write laws specific to one technological era and then don't update them).

The majority says because that sentence talks about public transmission, it implies there's such a thing as private transmission. And transmission of a unique server copy to a specific customer is a private transmission. (See pp. 29-30.) They think this case is about a "rooftop antenna [that] is rented from Aereo and its signals transmitted over the internet."

The dissenter says that "public performance" includes any stream whose fundamental purpose is to retransmit live TV to a large audience. And that's what he thinks Aereo is doing. (See pp. 49-50.) He thinks Aereo is functionally doing the same thing as a cable company, and that "Congress made clear its intent to [cover] ... 'all conceivable forms and combinations of wires and wireless communications media,'" so it doesn't matter whether there's a private copy on the server or not.

(Link to opinion: http://www.ca2.uscourts.gov/decisions/isysquery/82dcbc3a-986...)

asr··on U.S. to sue S&P over ratings ahead of financial crisis
To answer your question: yes, you can sue the politicians for spending your money in a way you don't think is Constitutional. See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flast_v._Cohen and http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standing_(law)#Taxpayer_standin.... That said, the best way to fix the problem is to vote the politicians out of office.

(Not really going to touch the rest of this...)

asr··on The YC VC Program
Definitely illegal. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duty_of_loyalty

Thought I'd doubt it would be litigated, unless the founders are particularly stupid in addition to being immoral.

asr··on Market Design Economists win Nobel Prize
Al Roth is basically a computer scientist masquerading as an economist (or the other way around?) -- he does a lot of work on stable matching algorithms, including involvement in designing the medical residency match, kidney-donation match centers, and Boston public school assignments. If you haven't heard of him, you should definitely read a profile.

Shapley also won--I don't know much about him, but I'm sure his theoretical contributions are the underpinning for all later work in the area, he's a giant of the field, etc. etc. etc.

asr··on Another Way Apple's Fight With Google Is Hurting Users
Both examples from the article (maps, Google's iOS app) are examples where the author claims/implies Apple is at fault. So I don't think the title slip is particularly misleading.

Also, who cares who started it? Usually, competition is good for consumers--in this case, if Apple approved this app, competition would mean we have two natural language search apps on iOS. The problem is that Apple is "competing" by hurting their users, not by improving their products. And Google does this too (see: lack of turn-by-turn navigation on iOS), but my sense is they do it less.

As the article does, it's more helpful to focus on how the competition takes place than on casting blame for starting the "competition," which is fundamentally a good thing.

asr··on Facebook Wants You To Snitch On Friends Not Using Their Real Name
Agree with your larger point, but your tone is a bit argumentative.

Also, civil disobedience doesn't mean what you think it means:

  much like civil disobedience, you have no right to complain once
  you are found to be breaking the law/policy and are punished for it
Civil disobedience is all about breaking the law in order to maintain the right to complain. "Under a government which imprisons unjustly, the true place for a just man is also a prison." http://www.gutenberg.org/files/71/71-h/71-h.htm
asr··on The Lost Chapter
Seriously, does this guy not have any parents/siblings/super close friends who can tell him it's time to move on? This is a great happy hour story, but not such a great epitaph.

On the bright side, at least he's thematically consistent! "I keep getting screwed over by life" is the only reason I can think of to start the post with so many words about Final Clubs before the pivot.... Suffice it to say, anyone who can graduate from Harvard with a CS degree and feel screwed over needs some perspective.

asr··on What's a $4000 Suit Worth?
I think the point of the article (which wasn't very clear; maybe Adam Davidson should stick to radio) was that even at a price most of us would consider expensive, this guy doesn't make much money. And the reason is that, as the modern economy makes everything else cheaper, things that depend upon people's labor get relatively more expensive.

So bespoke suits have gone from being a huge part of the suit industry to being a tiny part of it (not non-viable, just not very important). If bespoke tailors want to keep from becoming ever more expensive/niche, Davidson speculates, they will have to adopt at least some labor-saving techniques.

Note your solution--raising prices--is exactly what Davidson is annoyed about. As tailors raise prices, fewer and fewer people can buy bespoke suits. Which is bad. I'd like a custom-built suit, but I definitely won't bet getting one.

You've jumped into this assuming Davidson is writing about a business problem. But I think he's coming at it from a consumer point of view. He doesn't spend a lot of time trying to figure out if the bespoke tailor can raise prices because, well, higher prices reduce consumer surplus, so that doesn't solve the problem he's concerned with.

asr··on What's a $4000 Suit Worth?
No offense, but this could be really bad advice. Maybe the customers who'd pay 10k for a suit won't go to some guy's living room for fittings. Or maybe the price of top bespoke tailors in town is comparable, because they make better use of lower-paid assistants. Or maybe, to convince a bank to make the loan he needs to move into a nicer place, he needs to show the bank he has a large backlog of orders. Or maybe he's in the middle of following your advice, just raised his price, and will shortly raise it again because he's still getting enough orders.

I'm not saying you're wrong. I'm just saying we don't get nearly enough information to decide! And that's ok, because that's not the point of the article.

asr··on Google Search is only 18% Search
Just like the sesame-seed hamburger bun: http://www.joelonsoftware.com/items/2007/09/11.html

(Though, personally, in this case, I don't think Google's getting enough credit. The added space for search tools is designed to make search better for most users, and probably do, even if most of us don't need them.)

asr··on How the medical supply industry blocks device startups from selling to hospitals
Not to derail, but the regulatory capture in this article is mostly an absence of enforcement of laws. Retractable Technologies had to file their own antitrust suit because the DOJ and FTC wouldn't investigate GPOs.

The next time someone suggests antitrust laws are uniformly bad and should be abolished due to their (mis)application in tech, this is a great counterpoint.

asr··on Redesign: Users: Thrilled. Conversion Rates: Up. Sales: Unchanged.
Given that Patrick's tentative conclusion was that the new version makes a similar amount of money, but allows more people to get value from his software, leaving up the old design would seem a bit... hard-hearted.
asr··on What Amazon's ebook strategy really means
So, in your doomsday scenario, I get books for $5 and authors make more money? I'll take it.

The crux of Stross's argument for why we should fear Amazon's low prices is that it's "predatory pricing"--that Amazon was selling e-books below cost so they could jack up the prices later after they had their monopoly (or, equivalently, lower payments to authors after they were a monopsonist).

But apparently Stross didn't read the DOJ complaint, because it turns out Amazon's e-bookstore was consistently profitable! 9.99 bestsellers were just the equivalent of cheap milk at grocery stores--loss leaders.

The DRM prediction in the article is pretty good, but both you and Stross misunderstand why Amazon is winning. It's not because they're cheating--it's because they're more efficient and so can make money at lower price points.

asr··on YC Facelift: EXEC
This debate is very interesting, and you've both made some great points. But I lost you entirely with this post:

I didn't mean professional in the sense of "money-earning," as you would use the term applied to participants in a certain field.

That's exactly what professional means. A professional web designer is someone who gets paid by others to design websites. Sometimes, artistic license is part of what customers want (see: professional chefs, painters, etc.). But web businesses like Exec generally want to earn money.

So any site that is optimized for profit qualifies as professional, regardless of how much you like their design.

Of course, there are caveats. Maybe some designs, while generating more conversions, would attract more short-term, price-conscious customers, instead of the upscale clientele that are ultimately more important to Exec's long-term profits. And maybe, for this service, it's important to be seen as "stylish" to generate good word of mouth. But, ultimately, whatever design is best for Exec is the most "professional."

asr··on OMGPOP CEO tweets: "Shay Pierce was the weakest employee on the team"
On twitter, it looks like he apoligzed: "sorry for what I said ... no excuses." But then he e-mails VentureBeat with--you guessed it--a bunch of excuses:

  When the game blows up ... and one employee, who didn’t work on the product,
  and is more about his own games then the team, jumps in the press and becomes
  the story, it is very hurtful to all the people who are on team.

  [W]hen you give blood, sweat and tears on something and someone who doesn’t
  even work on the project, and prioritizes his own games as his own professional
  development over the team, becomes the story it is very demoralizing.

  [M]y point is that it wasn’t about Shay. It was about the 41 other people who
  made it happen. Those are the people I would throw myself in front of the
  train for and those are the people I want to celebrate.
So, to recap, Shay was fired (for refusing to accept a change in the terms of his employment) and wrote about it. Porter still seems to take offense that Shay wrote anything to distract from OMGPOP's preferred message, continues to call out Shay for not being a team player, and says he would throw himself in front of a bus for every OMGPOP employee except Shay.

He didn't apologize. After an apology, you need to back up your words with actions.

asr··on Bootstrapped startup saves over $100K by dropping IE
This is one of those times I wish HN wasn't so strict about the title of the submission matching the title of the article--this title is extremely misleading. (As a guest post, I'm guessing the author didn't get to write the title, so I'm not blaming him). 4ormat didn't "drop" IE, they never supported it. As a result, their calculation of how much they "saved" appears to be based on some back-of-the-envelope calculation of how much more expensive it would have been to develop for IE over a period of years.

tl;dr: if you build a tool which solves a significant and recurring pain point for creative professionals, you can get away with not supporting IE.

The article does not provide much insight into building a consumer-facing application--this is the equivalent of a company using an intranet app which is IE6-specific.

asr··on Schneier removed from TSA oversight meeting at TSA request
Actually, I'm pretty sure there's no compelling legal reason for the TSA to do this. If what the TSA says is admissible in a later trial (which it likely would be[1]), it will be admissible whether or not Schneier is present at this hearing. The legal angle would explain why Schneier wouldn't want to testify, but he's apparently game.

Coming from the TSA, it amounts to "we are afraid to face questions from someone who will know enough to ask hard questions." Which I agree is unsurprising, but it's not exactly a compelling defense of their position.

[1] Under, for example, Rule 801(d)(1)(A): http://www.law.cornell.edu/rules/fre/rule_801

asr··on StackOverflow
Your comment is rude and trollish. GP made the reasonable point that trust in Joel may not be enough because VCs always apply pressure to monetize.

Agree or not (and I don't), it's not some beyond-the-pale view. Chill with the space aliens.

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