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areyousure

811 karma · joined September 8, 2014

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areyousure··on New Zealand admits it has access to Facebook takedown portal to censor content
> The lack of a constitution is in some ways a good thing

Out of curiosity, when you say "THE lack of a constitution" [emphasis mine], where are you referring to?

areyousure··on New Zealand admits it has access to Facebook takedown portal to censor content
In case anyone was curious, the following was part of the request:

> Please provide the number of Facebook posts your department has accessed through the portal, or at least an indication of the scope of interference.

areyousure··on FTX’s collapse was a crime, not an accident
In case anyone is curious: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_Industry_Regulatory_...

> The Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) is a private American corporation that acts as a self-regulatory organization (SRO) that regulates member brokerage firms and exchange markets.

areyousure··on Spotify CEO renews attack on Apple after Musk's salvo
> That's why Google pay Apple >$100bn pa to be their default search engine.

In case anyone is curious, reports of Google's payments to Apple have been in the range 8--20 billion dollars/year. The highest estimates appear to be $8--12 billion in 2020, $15 billion in 2021, and $18--20 billion in 2022. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/25/technology/apple-google-s... https://archive.ph/loAMx

My estimates from the information I have found suggest that the amount Google has paid to Apple for being the default search engine (on Macs, iPhones, etc) to be less than 65 billion nominal dollars total for all time, or less than 80 billion present value (ie, CPI-adjusted) dollars total for all time.

areyousure··on Where has the passive radar code gone?
In case anyone is curious, I believe the acronyms used here are the following:

SDR: software-defined radio https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Software-defined_radio

CFAR: constant false alarm rate https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Constant_false_alarm_rate

RTL-..: a prefix (likely standing for "RealTek Limited") used by Realtek in its chipsets https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Realtek

DARPA R&D: The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency is a research and development agency of the United States Department of Defense https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DARPA

DVB-T: digital video broadcasting — terrestrial https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DVB-T

areyousure··on “When we all have pocket telephones”
In case anyone was curious, United States federal tax receipts were $463 billion in FY1979 and $3.33 trillion in FY2018, a growth of a factor of ~7.2 = ~5.2%/year. The population has grown by a factor of ~1.44 = ~0.95%/year and the effect of inflation has been a factor of ~3.63 = ~3.36%/year, which multiply together to a factor of ~5.2 = ~4.33%/year. The receipts grew faster by a factor of ~1.38 = 0.82%/year.

This calculation does not consider the growth of expenditures specifically (as opposed to receipts) and similarly does not consider the growth of GDP (as opposed to inflation).

areyousure··on Binance to acquire FTX
In case anyone is curious, here is what some of my research has found:

The empirical rate of bank failure in the last couple decades has been slightly over 1 in 250 banks per year (that is, ~0.4%/bank/year, or "40 basis points"). This is from these two sources: https://www.fdic.gov/bank/historical/bank/ says that on average 27.3 banks per year have failed, while https://banks.data.fdic.gov/explore/historical?displayFields... says that there have been ~6500 banks covered. (I think that the probability of a massive bank failure is in fact higher than the empirical rate, due to the tail risk of catastrophic failures.)

I have not been able to find what rates JP Morgan Chase pays for their deposit insurance, but I think this page https://www.fdic.gov/deposit/insurance/historical.html suggests that the rate is between 1.5 and 40 basis points per year. Some other sources I've found do suggest that the average rate is around 5 bps/year.

Already we see that the empirical failure rate is higher than the assessment rate. (Although note that the probability was not weighted by dollars, whereas the rate is.) This is perhaps surprising, because the FDIC claims that "The FDIC receives no Congressional appropriations - it is funded by premiums that banks and savings associations pay for deposit insurance coverage." https://www.fdic.gov/about/what-we-do/index.html Perhaps this is part of the point of this comment I am replying to.

But indeed, we find that historically the FDIC's Deposit Insurance Fund has gone negative multiple times: https://www.aba.com/news-research/research-analysis/fdic-cap... https://www.fdic.gov/deposit/insurance/assuringconfidence.pd... Historically, in such a situation, the FDIC is able to borrow from the federal government. It has done so in 1990, while in 2008 it did other maneuvers that similarly show that the rate is insufficient.

As a result, it's plausible to predict: (a) the deposit insurance fund might go negative again (ie, the insurance rate is incorrect), (b) the deposit insurance fund will definitely go negative in a situation like the S&L crisis or the 2008 financial crisis (thus requiring tricks like the borrowing mentioned above), and (c) in the event of a more catastrophic failure, the insurance fund will go so far negative that it might be explicitly bailed out by the broader federal government.

areyousure··on How the US can stop wasting billions of dollars on each transit project
> To give an example, the city of Indianapolis is 'commited' to maintain a road that could go from Indianapolis to Alaska.

Can you say a little more about this example? I tried about a dozen Google searches (unfortunately on mobile) but could not find anything related.

areyousure··on Laws barring noncompete clauses spreading
Brown v. TGS Management Co., LLC is an interesting court case involving a "noncompete" from California: https://law.justia.com/cases/california/court-of-appeal/2020...
areyousure··on Kiwifarms Dropped by Their ISP
In case anyone is curious, the article https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Socialist_Party_of_Am... linked above suggests that the NSPA's goal was in fact to hold a march in Chicago and following the Skokie decision, they apparently did in fact hold a rally in Chicago.
areyousure··on Private Prisons Are Behind the Push for Homeless Criminalization
In case anyone is curious, one of the largest numbers claimed by Adrian Zenz is "1.8 million" in the following article: https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/07/01/china-documents-uighur-...

> Since 2017, up to 1.8 million Uighurs, Kazaks, and other Turkic minority groups in the northwestern Chinese region of Xinjiang have been swept up in what is probably the largest incarceration of an ethnoreligious minority since the Holocaust.

areyousure··on Who thought putting a casino in everyone’s pocket was a good idea?
In case anyone is curious, there are multiple different kinds of California ballot propositions. Some are constitutional amendments; some are statutes; some (like the subject[s] of this particular comment thread) are a combination of both. There are also bond measures and veto referendums, which for the purposes of this classification are probably more like statutes than amendments. (Furthermore, the ballot propositions can be citizen-initiated, legislatively-referred, or mandatory.)

On the ballot for 2022 in California is 1 constitutional amendment, 2 combined amendments/statutes, 3 statutes, and 1 veto referendum.

areyousure··on Declassified US nuclear targets – interactive map
In case anyone is curious, the following are translated quotations that people have interpreted as nuclear threats:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-24/full-tran...

> I would now like to say something very important for those who may be tempted to interfere in these developments from the outside. No matter who tries to stand in our way or all the more so create threats for our country and our people, they must know that Russia will respond immediately, and the consequences will be such as you have never seen in your entire history. No matter how the events unfold, we are ready. All the necessary decisions in this regard have been taken. I hope that my words will be heard.

http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69390

> They have even resorted to the nuclear blackmail. I am referring not only to the Western-encouraged shelling of the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant, which poses a threat of a nuclear disaster, but also to the statements made by some high-ranking representatives of the leading NATO countries on the possibility and admissibility of using weapons of mass destruction – nuclear weapons – against Russia.

> I would like to remind those who make such statements regarding Russia that our country has different types of weapons as well, and some of them are more modern than the weapons NATO countries have. In the event of a threat to the territorial integrity of our country and to defend Russia and our people, we will certainly make use of all weapon systems available to us. This is not a bluff.

http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/69465

> The United States is the only country in the world that has used nuclear weapons twice, destroying the cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in Japan. And they created a precedent.

areyousure··on Japan ends distribution of AstraZeneca Covid-19 vaccine, discards 13M doses
> A high-filtration mask costs $1-$2. Multiply by 350 million people, and you're at $12B to give everyone a new mask every day for a year.

$1 times (350 million) times (365) is $127.75 billion.

areyousure··on Europe braces for mobile network blackouts
> > The problem of relying on Russia for energy was obvious.

> Put together, 6.5% of gross available energy in the EU was from Russian gas.

In case anyone is curious, the sources I find suggest the following about the sources of the primary energy in the European Union:

~38% from oil, of which ~29% is from Russia = ~11% of total energy, plus

~24% from natural gas, of which 39--45% [note this is higher than in the parent comment] is from Russia = 9+% of total, plus

~14% from coal, of which 46--70% is from Russia = 6+% of total energy, plus

~11% from uranium (nuclear), of which ~20% is from Russia = ~2% of total energy,

altogether totaling >28% from Russia.

Other sources may disagree on the particular numbers, but the rough estimate of "one quarter" is in line with other sources: https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/04/europe-russia-energy-...

Some sources for the individual numbers: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_policy_of_the_European_... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia_in_the_European_energy_... https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/cache/infographs/energy/bloc-2... https://www.statista.com/statistics/1034930/eu-hard-coal-imp... https://www.dw.com/en/eu-ban-on-russian-coal-imports-comes-i...

areyousure··on Three Nord Stream gas pipelines damaged in one day
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/2/do-not-call-ukraine-...
areyousure··on Dear Chess World
In case anyone is curious, Canseco played in the MLB from 1985 to 2001. It is unclear when the MLB banned steroids, but some possible years include 1990--1991, 1997, or somewhere around 2003--2005.

Note, however, that steroid use was made effectively illegal on a federal level in the United States in 1990. The 1991 date above references a memo from the commissioner that states that illegal drugs are "strictly prohibited". Steroids are mentioned explicitly, though they do not have to be, seeing as how they were in fact illegal.

You can read the memo here: https://www.espn.com/espn/eticket/format/memos20051109

areyousure··on Dear Chess World
In case anyone is curious, the starting times for the first five runners at the 110mH event at the 2022 World Championships were (in milliseconds) 99, 108, 109, 124, and 126.

While I personally disagree with the comment I am replying to regarding reaction times under 120ms, the issue at this World Championships was more likely that the reaction timing was wrong ...

areyousure··on Turns are better than radians
Perhaps an even nicer equation:

    1^x = ncos(x) + i nsin(x)
using a multi-valued definition of the exponentiation on the left hand side.
areyousure··on My First BillG Review (2006)
Is Google/Alphabet a software company? Sundar does not know how to program.
areyousure··on U.S. Life Expectancy Falls Again in ‘Historic’ Setback
In case anyone is curious, the Spearman rank correlation coefficient between these two provided lists is ~0.32.
areyousure··on IRS audits poorest families at five times the rate for everyone else
> zero

https://www.irs.gov/compliance/criminal-investigation/us-tax... https://www.irs.gov/compliance/criminal-investigation/us-acc...

areyousure··on Work, Work, Work – So a Few Can Be Rich
In case anyone is curious, there have been a variety of different estate taxes at a federal level in the United States from 1797 through the present. https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-soi/ninetyestate.pdf

The "modern" estate tax was enacted in 1916. It was repealed for a single year -- 2010 -- but returned the following year and is currently in force. The exclusion amount has grown considerably over time.

areyousure··on U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%
Here's a curious moment from your linked video: https://youtu.be/KILAY2miQdI?t=373

> I believe -- and this is a personal belief here at MFAN [the channel name] -- that the United States is actively flying both F-22s and F-35s -- stealth aircraft -- over the combat area. And now, are they dropping ordnance on Russian targets? Difficult to say

areyousure··on Most Americans support using the popular vote to decide U.S. presidents, data
In case anyone is curious, the relevant clause is the following:

> The number of Representatives shall not exceed one for every thirty Thousand, but each State shall have at Least one Representative

areyousure··on Y Combinator narrows current cohort size by 40%, citing downturn and funding
https://www.allianceofceos.com/assets/forum/2008-10-Sequoia%...
areyousure··on Wikipedia has blocked editing ‘recession’ as people change definition
In case anyone was curious, here are the numbers from the provided link around a couple of the time periods indicated:

> 1960Q2-1960Q3 - GDP grew, yet this is flagged as a recession.

1960-01-01: 542.648

1960-04-01: 541.08

1960-07-01: 545.604

1960-10-01: 540.197

1961-01-01: 545.018

> 2020Q1-2020Q1 - This is flagged as recession, despite being less than a single quarter. By "two consecutive quarters definition, this recession started in 2019Q4 and lasted until 2021Q1.

2019-10-01: 21694.458

2020-01-01: 21481.367

2020-04-01: 19477.444

2020-07-01: 21138.574

2020-10-01: 21477.597

2021-01-01: 22038.226

areyousure··on Tor is fighting and beating Russian censorship
In case anyone was curious, this paragraph

> After the bombing ended, US Special Forces and Dostum’s troops herded 3,000 surviving prisoners into sealed metal containers and drove them for 20 hours to Sheberghan prison. Most of the prisoners suffocated along the way. When the convoy arrived at its destination, the containers were emptied and the prisoners who had survived the journey were shot. Their remains were buried in a mass grave.

presumably refers to the following event: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dasht-i-Leili_massacre

areyousure··on Inflation rose 9.1% in June, even more than expected
In case anyone is curious, the monthly change was 1.3%: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_07132022.htm
areyousure··on Inflation rose 9.1% in June, even more than expected
In case anyone is curious, the second-largest economy in the OECD (which also has a 2% inflation target) reports inflation of 2.1--2.8%: https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/japans-may-consumer-inf... https://tradingeconomics.com/japan/inflation-cpi
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