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arcticbull

31,710 karma · joined August 8, 2014

Nomadic Canadian/British/Polish iOS Engineer.
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arcticbull··on GameStop makes $55.5B takeover offer for eBay
Look at the 10Y. Still crap. No matter how you look at it this company is a dog.
arcticbull··on GameStop makes $55.5B takeover offer for eBay
Well they are raising capital to hand out in dividends on their preferred stock. So that's much closer.
arcticbull··on GameStop makes $55.5B takeover offer for eBay
They haven't had a genuinely good year in the last 15 years.

Their TTM revenue is down 66% from what it was in 2012.

In nominal dollars. In real dollars it's down 75%.

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/GME/gamestop/reven...

arcticbull··on GPT-5.5
I don't know where people get this idea.

America has several sets of eminent domain laws depending on the jurisdiction. The most coercive is federal eminent domain law specifically as it relates to building infrastructure like railways and highways.

It's set up so that you can take the land first and eventually go back around and decide on what the right price should have been.

Not only does it superscede state and local law, federal infrastructure projects are also not bound by state laws like CEQA.

You can even apply federal eminent domain law by e.g. transferring a state-level project to the Army Corps of Engineers.

What America is lacking in these projects is will, not means. The federal government could take your house and run a train through it by the end of the week if they wanted, doesn't matter where you live.

[edit] In fact some states even ceded their eminent domain rights to private railways.

https://ij.org/press-release/appeals-court-sides-with-railro...

arcticbull··on The cult of vibe coding is dogfooding run amok
Yep this is especially true in the pre-product-market-fit phase. Most if not all of that code should be written to be thrown away. Any time you spend writing perfect code instead of your MVP is burnt runway and a chance for competitors to catch up.

Once you show PMF though the balance changes to long-term sustainability and maintainability.

What's going to be interesting is getting to a place where it generates better code than we would from specs. You can get better and better generated code by filling in the context the model infers. Do that long enough, and well, a perfect spec is just code.

We do live in interesting times.

arcticbull··on Stripe valued at $159B, 2025 annual letter
> That's an incredibly vague standard and courts have repeatedly declined to get involved

Which courts? Corporate law is state-level. Delaware generally has some affordances for long-term strategic decisions.

arcticbull··on Stripe valued at $159B, 2025 annual letter
Depends. In Michigan it is binding precedent, see Dodge v. Ford (1919).

Delaware corporations must act in the interests of shareholders.

arcticbull··on Altman on AI energy: it also takes 20 years of eating food to train a human
If you really want to go down that path then AI's are the product of human ingenuity and labor so you have to amortize all of that into AI training. Then numbers become pretty meaningless very quickly. That sand didn't up and start thinking on its own you know.
arcticbull··on CXMT has been offering DDR4 chips at about half the prevailing market rate
Deaths in the Great Leap Forward were heavily concentrated as compared to the Industrial Revolution but the death tolls from IR-related famines weren't really all that far off. Industrialization was messy everywhere.

The Irish Potato Famine alone killed 15% of Ireland vs the GLF killing 5% of China.

That's not a reason not to plan 5 years in advance... is it? Any more than the Potato Famine is a reason we should't have capitalism.

I can't say that I've ever heard the argument that a plan led to a famine therefore we should never make plans, when we have great counterexamples that not planning also led to famine. Feels like learning the wrong lesson here.

[edit] I also think it's worth pointing out that America's response to the Dust Bowl was the Farm Bill, which it could be argued is one of the largest-scale examples of central planning in history. It continues to this day, and is part of the reason Americans pay less as a share of their spending on food than any other country on earth.

People say everyone remembers the hits, nobody remembers the misses - but that is the opposite of true for government. Everyone remembers the misses, nobody thinks twice about the hits.

arcticbull··on The TSA's New $45 Fee to Fly Without ID Is Illegal
Ah right I think I was benchmarking on global entry so that’s $11.75 per year.
arcticbull··on The TSA's New $45 Fee to Fly Without ID Is Illegal
> "Ok then, give us $45 and you can go through."

It's not pay $45 to go though, it's pay $45 for someone to take you around back and look you up based on secondary identification, and if they can't positively identify you based on that you still can't go through.

This is a system that has been in place for a long, long time. You could always say you don't have ID and they'll look you up. The change is they're now charging for it.

> And don't get me started with all the paid express security lanes. Because of course only poor people can weaponize shoes and laptops.

This is also not accurate. If you're talking about Clear, you just skip to the front of the normal line. If you're talking about Pre, those people are individually background-checked before hand, and it costs $19/yr, so it's not exactly a tophat and monocle only program. Especially since that's half the price of a one-way taxi ride to the airport, let alone the ticket. The airport self-selects for the fairly well off to begin with.

arcticbull··on Improving the usability of C libraries in Swift
Yeah, Swift started out fairly clear and cohesive and now it's just a katamari of every language feature ever made by anyone plus a whole bunch of home-grown features too. I'm always mixed on this because in isolation the feature is neat and I like it, but the totality of Swift is becoming as overwhelming and inconsistent as C++.

Now some C functions which are indistinguishable from free Swift functions get named parameters, and you can switch on some enumerations from C, and some C objects are ref counted but other ones still need you to do it. It's going to be quite something to keep track of which library is which since there's no way to know apriori.

arcticbull··on Cursor's latest “browser experiment” implied success without evidence
With the “up to 3-3000x+” language the plus leaves us with the entire number line.
arcticbull··on Ford F-150 Lightning outsold the Cybertruck and was then canceled for poor sales
If your argument is that most Americans should be on public transit and save the average $500,000 they spend during their lives on private vehicles then I completely agree.

If you're saying "a less bad thing is still bad!" then your comment reads more like the "We should improve society somewhat. / Yet you participate in society. Curious! I am very intelligent." meme.

arcticbull··on Ford F-150 Lightning outsold the Cybertruck and was then canceled for poor sales
The F-150 alone has been Americas best selling vehicle for 47 years straight until getting dethroned by the RAV4 in 2024 (unless you add any of the other F-series trucks). It appears to be back on top in 2025.
arcticbull··on Ford F-150 Lightning outsold the Cybertruck and was then canceled for poor sales
one time a year or less was the suffix for each of these, many more people fall into the once a month or so category. The economical thing to do is buy a civic and rent a truck the one time a year you use it for truck things.
arcticbull··on Ford F-150 Lightning outsold the Cybertruck and was then canceled for poor sales
> According to Edwards’ data, 75 percent of truck owners use their truck for towing one time a year or less (meaning, never). Nearly 70 percent of truck owners go off-road one time a year or less. And a full 35 percent of truck owners use their truck for hauling—putting something in the bed, its ostensible raison d’être—once a year or less.

> So what do people actually like about trucks? According to Edwards, the answer is counterintuitive. Truck drivers use their trucks very much like other car owners: for commuting to and from work, presumably alone. The thing that most distinguishes truck owners from those of other vehicles is their sheer love of driving. “The highest indexed use among truck owners is pleasure driving,” says Edwards. Truck drivers use their vehicles this way fully twice as often as the industry average. “This is the freedom that trucks offer,” says Edwards.

https://www.thedrive.com/news/26907/you-dont-need-a-full-siz...

The F-series is the best selling car family in the US. Some of them are using it for its intended purpose sure, the majority are just using it as parent said, a luxobarge.

arcticbull··on Ford F-150 Lightning outsold the Cybertruck and was then canceled for poor sales
> A pickup truck should just be max utility, especially if you're a manufacturer making your first one

> 75 percent of truck owners use their truck for towing one time a year or less (meaning, never). Nearly 70 percent of truck owners go off-road one time a year or less. And a full 35 percent of truck owners use their truck for hauling—putting something in the bed, its ostensible raison d’être—once a year or less.

[1] https://www.thedrive.com/news/26907/you-dont-need-a-full-siz...

arcticbull··on Flock Hardcoded the Password for America's Surveillance Infrastructure 53 Times
An amendment requires 2/3 of the house and 2/3 of the senate -- or 34 of 50 states to call for a constitutional convention (which has never been done) -- just to float an amendment.

Then 3/4 of the states have to ratify it.

I don't think you could get half of states to agree the sky is blue let alone 3/4.

[edit] The Equal Rights Amendment has been in progress since 1972 and while they somehow managed to get 3/4 of states to agree (Virginia agreed in 2020) the 7- and later 10-year deadline built into the bill had long elapsed. And 5 states later tried to rescind their ratifications which isn't really covered in the constitution in the first place.

That one says simply:

> Equality of rights under the law shall not be denied or abridged on account of sex.

So I guess what I'm trying to say is godspeed.

arcticbull··on Report: Microsoft kills official way to activate Windows 11/10 without internet
Well you see it would free up a huge amount of money that employers are currently paying to insurers. If you take that money (by raising the Medicare premium on employees), plus the existing medicaid budget, existing medicare tax and payroll tax contributions America's healthcare system would receive over 40% more money to cover care per capita than the next leading contestant. Almost 2X the OECD average. In PPP dollars no less.

https://www.healthsystemtracker.org/chart-collection/health-...

"But where would the money come from" is one of the wildest questions to ask about a system that already costs double the average. I'd say, give or take, the same place its coming from now, but like, less.

arcticbull··on Trials avoid high risk patients and underestimate drug harms
That data goes into VAERS and FAERS. You can query it in MedWatch.
arcticbull··on NVIDIA frenemy relation with OpenAI and Oracle
Burrys critique is that the Nvidia funding deals have them investing money in a company and getting both stock in that company and their own money back to buy the chips. They then book the chip sales in revenue but they don’t show the investment as a cost, since investments are treated separately from an accounting perspective. So it looks like they’re growing revenue organically at no cost, while that doesn’t seem logically consistent with what’s actually happening.
arcticbull··on NVIDIA frenemy relation with OpenAI and Oracle
The issue is size, SRAM is 6 transistors per bit while DRAM is 1 transistor and a capacitor. Anyone who wants density starts with DRAM. There’s never been motivation to stack.
arcticbull··on Human hair grows through 'pulling' not pushing, study shows
Yep, you have to start early; it regrows about 2-3 years of losses and prevents further losses.
arcticbull··on Human hair grows through 'pulling' not pushing, study shows
> Most of the products on the market today were discovered by accident and have serious side effects.

Topical minoxidil / finasteride has roughly zero side effects (due to the limited systemic exposure) and has something like a 90% efficacy rate. With 90%+ efficacy it's not a case of "this might work for you" it's "this will almost certainly work for you." It's cheap and it works.

Even oral 1mg finasteride has basically the same side effect profile after 1 year as placebo, side effects always* stop whether you stop taking it or continue taking it. And as an added bonus it significantly reduces your risk of low-grade prostate cancer (30% ish) while not increasing your risk of high-grade prostate cancer. Many of the side effects reported are in people taking 5mg doses for prostate hypertrophy, and the incidence of side-effects is dose dependent. Studies show that sexual side effects are primarily nocebo, if participants were told to expect them the rate was 3X higher than placebo, if they weren't told, they were about the same.

* the category of persistent side-effects has been defined primarily for data collection purposes, there's very little evidence for persistent side effects at all let alone a high incidence thereof. Many of the side effects people claim are related are things that would otherwise happen to you at the age you start to lose your hair regardless. It's good to collect more data though.

> As someone with thinning hair, it's horrible how little study/research is being performed to understand how hair grows and treat hair loss.

Given the size of the market I'd say there's a ton of research being done. It's just a tough nut to crack. There's some good data on PP405, for example.

arcticbull··on China reaches energy milestone by "breeding" uranium from thorium
The cost of nuclear power is almost entirely capex and financing, not opex. Uranium input cost for nuclear power plants is 0.5c/kWh. With breeders you can divide that by about 100.

At least as of a couple years ago nuclear costs just a little more than solar plus storage and that’s not stopping anyone heh.

arcticbull··on Americans with six-figure incomes are in 'survival mode'
Treating everyone in the $100-999K income bucket as the same is pretty disingenuous. Yeah someone making $100K in the bay are is low income, nobody making just shy of $1M a year is struggling to make ends meet unless they have a serious shopping problem.
arcticbull··on I have recordings proving Coinbase knew about breach months before disclosure
> Whatever operations Coinbase had with Bitfinex were either to support market making activity or as a service for Coinbase's institutional customers to directly access bitfinex via their platform.

How do you know?

arcticbull··on I have recordings proving Coinbase knew about breach months before disclosure
That's yet another example of denominated in USD, and converted to BTC at the last second. Obviously, because of the insane volatility.
arcticbull··on I have recordings proving Coinbase knew about breach months before disclosure
That's not actually true, back in the day Coinbase used Bitfinex. They were using them when Bitfinex got all that BTC stolen. Technically everyone, including Coinbase, lost assets in that hack. They were large and scary enough at the time to force Bitfinex to keep them whole instead of applying the 36% haircut, but I'd argue that amounts to recovery rather than failure to lose in the first place. [1, 2]

[1] https://www.kalzumeus.com/2019/10/28/tether-and-bitfinex

[2] https://x.com/nathanielpopper/status/933130228175552513

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