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aorloff

1,094 karma · joined March 28, 2014

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aorloff··on The top secret URSALA, RAQUEL, and FARRAH satellites (2025)
Cell triangulation is practically consumer grade technology now

For a while just before smartphones, at least 15 years ago now, carriers were experimenting with APIs that allow opted-in dumbphones to be triangulated (via cell tower) and tracked via API.

aorloff··on Burning Man death rates – A short lesson in statistics
I recall laughing with a friend as we realized the railing on the second story art car we were on was attached by staple and hot glue, but back when I went we assumed things unsafe
aorloff··on Burning Man death rates – A short lesson in statistics
You wouldn't need to look much further than the evolution of the BRC DMV

My friends who went in the late 90s recounted shooting at propane tanks from moving vehicles and having to camp inside of a ring of parked cars to protect your camp (from vehicular traffic)

After 2000 you had to show some decent design (not just a golf cart with dingleberries) and that was about it, they passed our moon car and shark van without much question, and the shark van was a giant sharp thing without lights.

Others will have to fill in the regs now, I understand things have gotten progressively more rigorous.

My understanding is that anything built on the playa, including the art (eg. temple of gravity) has an engineer's stamp just like would in Reno. Or just a bit more dusty.

aorloff··on The Hierarchy of Money
Try reading Debt : the first 5000 years

Money is about trust, not about the problems of bartering

aorloff··on Everyone should slow down AI development except for me
> Unless you ignore realities.

Tell me about making capital investments while interest rates are rising but revenue growth is slowing, if you want to really talk dirty.

aorloff··on Everyone should slow down AI development except for me
The very best outcomes involve us intentionally and collectively turning our attention away from this technology.
aorloff··on I spent $220 on Google app ads and 60% of the installs were robots
Yes and no. ROI tracking is not hard if you want to run 1 campaign on Google and nothing else.

ROI tracking is a whole subspecialty of adtech if you want to parse out one medium or campaign's spend from all the other spend have running -- imagine you spend $10m / month on media, you have ROI and you have spend across platforms and nobody except you is incentivized to figure out what ad spend should be credited for which response. That's real ROI tracking and it is quite hard

aorloff··on I spent $220 on Google app ads and 60% of the installs were robots
Would the casinos benefit from a careful presentation of the mathematical odds of all the games and how to best position your wagers ?

Or would they benefit by seeming like a fantastic place to wine, dine, splurge on things you can spend money on, and also make a few wagers on fun betting games while you are at it ?

The advertising market is a place that used to be dominated by the big advertisers meeting with the big networks (upfronts), but now is dominated by large platforms that only marginally care about the biggest users because the tail is so long

aorloff··on I spent $220 on Google app ads and 60% of the installs were robots
I think Google's business model in large part is having a super complicated ad console that very few, if anyone, actually knows how to most efficiently operate.

So what happens is that the savvy media teams figure out what works through meticulous trial and error, and constantly monitor Googles weird changes to the levers you are given to operate the "console."

aorloff··on Algorithmic rent-pricing litigation expands under new state and local laws
The primary argument against Rent Control is that it leaves tenants worse off.

Look at the places without Rent Control that have adopted a pro-housing development stance - rents are declining !

But, that doesn't keep a large staff of people working for the rent board at the expense of the local housing economy

aorloff··on Algorithmic rent-pricing litigation expands under new state and local laws
Because the higher rent you advertise, the longer it takes to find a tenant
aorloff··on Algorithmic rent-pricing litigation expands under new state and local laws
In the People's Republic of Berkeley, our City Council patted themselves on the back in March 2025 when they passed similar laws.

Then they got sued by the company that was targeted, and immediately waffled and canceled the ban.

What's insane about all of this is that we also have Rent Control. There is no greater price fixing mechanism than Rent Control. Rent Control ensures that all landlords must seek the highest possible rent, because they are (potentially) tethered to it for life (of the tenant).

So if you create an economic system where sellers never will allow prices to go down, why bother banning price fixing -- its practically baked into the housing code.

aorloff··on U.S. sanctions against the A/I Collective
If the Dems get the House and Senate, expect a lot of reversals.

I would imagine we might even have some "settlements" with the "DOJ" before the end of Trumps term

aorloff··on Canada will match US tariffs 'dollar for dollar' as trade talks break down
Strategy and spin don't make policy ?

Wag the Dog (movie) came out like 3 decades ago

aorloff··on Canada will match US tariffs 'dollar for dollar' as trade talks break down
The Democrats are not smartening up.

The weak kneed leadership will be getting replaced by the populist message of Trump but coming from the left, people like Mamdani, the DSA candidates, etc.

The people clearly want leaders who will say : we will use political tools to help the economic situation of the poor and middle class.

Everyone from Jon Ossoff to Angie Nixon has some version of this message and its resonating

aorloff··on Early Humans Likely Ate Carbs and Sugary Foods
anyone who reads Gary Taubes
aorloff··on SparrowMap – Cameras that watch government vehicles
Just wait until the hearings start
aorloff··on Should you stop cracking your knuckles?
I suppose you can find conspiracies and scams everywhere if you want to not look very hard
aorloff··on Should you stop cracking your knuckles?
I'm not talking about athletes.

I'm talking about the people who own the teams, they invest in chiropractors.

People who are thinking about the ultimate economic benefit of an investment into a human body, not the athletes themselves.

aorloff··on Should you stop cracking your knuckles?
Its such a scam that professional sports teams all hire chiropractors to work on the bodies they invest millions of dollars into each year.
aorloff··on Software development with AI is starting to feel like cooking steak
I was going to say the same thing. 2.5m per side+rotation plus another 2.5 plus or minus 20s depending on heat

But I actually got something out of this -- which is that maybe before now, humans had to soak up the complexity of where value was made in software. And you saw this in the highest and best paid engineers in science and platform teams and basically that you had to invest in brains where you thought the value in your product was.

Without humans managing complexity, you have no idea where you should be investing once the product grows out of the concept stage

aorloff··on Ten advances in mathematics and theoretical computer science
Science is not merely computing though, even the theoretical sciences
aorloff··on US Treasury undertakes historic intervention in yen market
at some point, the SPR runs dry
aorloff··on Governments, companies, nonprofits should invest in free, open source AI [pdf]
Largely because enough American voters, contrary to all of the evidence, believed that Trump was going to grow a sense of duty, eviscerate corruption in Washington, deliver an economy that works for the working class, and not engage in any new wars.

Charlie Brown, Lucy, football.

aorloff··on Egg consumption inversely correlated with Alzheimer's
I guess I gotta be the one to ask -- so do you recall if they ate eggs ?
aorloff··on 15-minute at-home Lyme disease tick test
On dogs my friend likes to strike a match, touch the extinguished tip to the back of the tick, and then pull it out with tweezers. Seems to work
aorloff··on Show HN: TownSquare, a tiny presence layer for websites
If the history of the internet is to be any guide, it won't be the slog of racism that will shut something like this down, it will be a firehose of penis pictures.

Somewhere, someone will figure out how to create a bot that floods this with penis pictures, and that will be the end of it (or the beginning of the end, where a short period of anti-penis-pic defensive patches will be made until the software maintainers just give up)

aorloff··on Police officer investigated for using AI to 'create evidence' in multiple cases
I suppose you could put a hash of the content into a TXT record
aorloff··on Police officer investigated for using AI to 'create evidence' in multiple cases
Thanks - this is the perfect example of how to do this
aorloff··on Police officer investigated for using AI to 'create evidence' in multiple cases
I imagine in this age of blockchains you could embed into a media file a signature that proved it was no older than the timestamp of when it occurred, the digital equivalent of a hostage-proof-of-life photo with a recent newspaper

But I don't know of a cryptographic mechanism to ensure that a digital image is not more recent than a particular time

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