263 karma · joined January 6, 2013
EDIT: just checked: only hardware they unveiled in the 2013 keynote was a Google Play Edition Galaxy S4, but in 2012 they introduced the Nexus 7, among other things.
Unlikely, but possible.
The bootstrapped founder, on the other hand, doesn't necessarily need to exit the investment in those 8-10 (or shorter) years. There are, of course, serial entrepreneurs for whom that is their goal, and for them (as the article points out) their incentives are aligned. For "lifestyle company" founders (not meant to be disparaging), an exit may not be necessary at all. The key differences are time horizon and exit.
I would say that the risk profile is not irrelevant: if you're betting that 1/10 of your investments are returning your fund, then just one miss is the difference between a good year and "I don't have a VC firm anymore". Compare that to betting that half of your investments are returning your fund: one miss is the difference between a good year and an "ehh" year.[0]
That's true; when you compare both of them to a 30x, the difference between a 1x and 0x is small. But what I'm saying is that at a $15m investment, very few VCs expect to see a 30x, and when you compare it vs. a 3x or a 5x acquisition, the difference between no money back and your 1x liquidation pref paying out is much larger, proportionally.
The same power law may apply, but you see more of the tails in when you have a much larger sample size. If there were just as many $15m investments happening as $20k investments, you'd see the same result, but there aren't.
Off-topic: are you the same Scott Klein I talked to over the summer re: statuspage.io?
[0] Of course, that glosses over different probabilities of success and failure, but what I'm trying to say is that VCs are risk averse.
If it was a general point, it would have been fine, but the difference between a $100m --> $300m company and a $100m --> $3000m company are huge.
If the VC firm is taking 15% of your company for $15m, then you've got a valuation of $100m. As far as I know, the "We all know that nine out of ten startups fail" applies to all startups, not the ones that are being valued at $100m. Also, I think very few VCs are investing $15m into a company that they expect to have a 90% chance of failure. You're looking at more of a 3-5x on some of the deals to carry the consistent 1-2x that the rest of the portfolio is returning.
I don't disagree with a lot of the points in the article, but saying that a VC firm with a $150m fund is betting the farm on one $15m investment exiting at $3bn should raise some eyebrows.