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analyst74

2,706 karma · joined December 29, 2009

hn@billyang.com
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analyst74··on Investors bought a record share of U.S. homes in 2021
This sounds ridiculous at first, but there some truth to it. Even for first time home buyers, the debate between buying and renting typically is about how good an investment buying is. If housing prices remain stable or even drop slightly every year, renting would be much more prudent choice in current market conditions.
analyst74··on YouTube ranks “wholesome and funny” comments higher?
I was skeptical about removing dislikes at first. But the more I think about it, the more I admire the decision.

It's slightly inconveniencing the majority in order to protect the minority from harassment. If anything, it shows YouTube has the balls to do what's unpopular.

analyst74··on Intel removes Xinjiang references from shareholder letter
Isn't the new wording more morally consistent?

It still means they are against slave labor, including those in Xinjiang, but not blindly banning anything from the region.

analyst74··on The leader who's standing up to China
I'm not old enough to read mainstream news during the 80s, but learnt that there was a period of anti-Japanese fear mongering due to Japan's rising economy. It caused riots, burning of japanese products, and street violence to people who looked like Japanese.

I'm not too worried about war between nuclear powers, but I do fear for Chinese and Chinese-looking people living in the west.

analyst74··on Buying Influence: How China manipulates Facebook and Twitter
> China's astroturfing for example has gotten so bad, that the "50 cent army" meme has become pervasive and well-known to mostly anyone that spends time online

Just because a meme got popular on the internet doesn't make it true.

In the case of 50 cent army, it got popular because it's the easiest way to shut down pro-China argument without refuting their points.

analyst74··on Microservices Architecture on Google Cloud
Some companies adopt micro-services to turn impossible problems into merely hard problems; some companies adopt micro-services to turn simple problems into hard problems.
analyst74··on Zillow to stop flipping homes, loses more than $550M, lays off 25% of staff
Overpaying for a house is not a problem in an appreciating housing market. If you overpaid for a house, just wait for its actual market value to catch up and voila, no loss.

The reason you fire-sale that house at loss, is because you believe market value is unlikely to catch up.

analyst74··on U.S. telecoms are going to start physically removing Huawei gear
He was stuck between the rock and a hard place.

It's like your daddy wants you to take the neighbourhood bully's toy, so you stole his toy, and now the bully came and took two of yours. What are you supposed to do?

analyst74··on Grand jury subpoena for Signal user data, Central District of California
like drugs, prostitution, and myriad of other small time victim-less crimes?
analyst74··on High schoolers are training to drive 18-wheelers amid shortage of truck drivers
Re: fossil fuel

I have been following oil news closely for a better part of a decade now, the oil industry did not reduce capacity due to renewables. They respond to price, especially higher cost productions like fracking and oil sand. Consistently low oil prices since 2014 crash has scared many investors away, and it'll take some time of consistently high oil price before investor confidence return.

Current high prices is a combination of inflation (primarily caused by money printing), OPEC+ not going full speed, and other high cost producers not ramping up due to lack of confidence.

analyst74··on Pursue High-Quality Leisure
I have a theory, all the "high quality" hobbies are challenging in one way or another, thus require some level of will power to push yourself to do it.

If you've been pushing yourself hard at work all day, then you have likely depleted your will power. Passive activities become the only ones you feel like doing.

analyst74··on U.S. crude oil price tops $80 a barrel, the highest since 2014
Central banks definitely have demonstrated their willingness to print. However, the Fed's mandate also includes managing inflation, meaning they're unlikely to continue the printing if that contributes higher inflation.
analyst74··on The reputation economy is turning us into conformists (2017) [video]
It seems hypocritical to me to value truth and transparency, aka journalism and dislike how the internet made everyone journalist.
analyst74··on Workers are often told not to talk about pay. That's not legal
As an employee, if you consistently deliver measurable and outsized impact, you get high ratings and promotions that will increase your pay dramatically.

And as freelance developer, how do you know you're not underpaid? For example, a client offered you $x to build a system, how do you know that's a fair amount without market data?

analyst74··on Facebook knows Instagram is toxic for teen girls, company documents show
Agreed, American highschool dynamic is quite unique in many ways. I think partly due to American culture, partly due to lack of authoritative figures in school.
analyst74··on Hong Kong: Police Raid Tiananmen Square Museum
> racism is almost never the first thing anyone mentions, even if they're talking about America

Sadly that's not the experience of Chinese expat and immigrants, especially those in the States. Many people can face criticism, but few enjoys being bombarded with the same criticism everyday.

In fact, American netizens probably has a similar experience and reaction. You just have to look at some sibling comments to see how they deflect and downplay racism, despite my clear intention of just using it to demonstrate a point, as opposed to seriously criticize US on this worldwide problem.

analyst74··on Hong Kong: Police Raid Tiananmen Square Museum
It's partly due Chinese brainwashing, and partly due to American brainwashing.

Imagine whenever an American expat talks to a foreigner, which happens daily, someone mentions racism in US. Very soon people will get really sick and tired of hearing about it, and will emotionally deny/downplay its existence.

analyst74··on Ex-Googlers raise $40M to democratize natural-language AI
AI simply replicate existing bias the data already has. The downside is that it could amplify the bias if not done carefully; the upside is that now we can analyze the algorithm's bias and fix it, which is much harder to do to people with biases.
analyst74··on Ask HN: What problem are you close to solving and how can we help?
Message queue (i.e. RabbitMQ) sounds like a more natural fit for your problem.

What is the peak and avg QPS you need to support? High peak QPS might force you to introduce distributed workers and makes locking impractical.

Another consideration is how much do you care about data integrity. Would it be a problem if a few messages are lost? What if a message for processed twice? What if servers lost connection to db for a few seconds? What if a whole server/db goes down?

analyst74··on Mental health impacts of a big tech job
This is the way
analyst74··on ASML, a $300B Dutch firm, makes the machines that make semiconductors
Isn't it better to just hire them, so they bring you all their years of technical and operational knowledge?

Of course, it requires the new external hires be given enough influence and autonomy. It remains to be seen if Chinese firms are able to integrate international talents effectively.

analyst74··on ASML, a $300B Dutch firm, makes the machines that make semiconductors
I wouldn't consider higher wage for engineers and scientists the same as bribing. I mean, one of silicone valleys key strength is the ability for companies to poach from competitors in order to catch up, this cross pollination of ideas is both beneficial to the industry AND individuals.
analyst74··on ASML, a $300B Dutch firm, makes the machines that make semiconductors
> US is already blocking them from exporting to China

This might actually be a good thing for China. In a "necessity is the root of invention" kinda way. Ultimately this might be good to the world too, competition is generally a good thing.

analyst74··on Google is dismantling its health division
I think their elite school preference is only for new grads, the experienced pipeline has always been open to people with less pedigree.
analyst74··on What is ‘elite overproduction’?
From historical perspective, another side effect of "elite overproduction" is that as "elites" grow in number, they take an increasingly larger slice of the pie, eventually leading to peasants rebellions when enough people cannot even feed their families.

Not sure how it applies to modern society, as we seem to manage food scarcity much better than previous millennia. And disgruntled elites alone is not enough to start rebellions if they lack popular support.

analyst74··on OnlyFans to block sexually explicit videos starting in October
Isn't USDC printed out of thin air with no backing? Similar to how private bank money was printed before modern banking regulations.

What are the guardrails to prevent bankrun like the wild west days of banking?

analyst74··on MacKenzie Scott’s Money Bombs Are Single Handedly Reshaping America
It's unclear at this point how effective is her style of giving. But it seems like she is aware of the potential of corruption, and by moving nimbly and only giving one-time donations, it might help reduce the patron-charity dynamic.

As for other billionaires failing their ambitious goals, I think that is normal, because their goals are more ambitious than their massive fortune. To put things in perspective, US government spends trillions of dollars a year, and the country still has many problems.

analyst74··on An old hacker's tips on staying employed
I don't disagree with the article, but the bigger picture with job security is that sometimes it's out of your control.

Shifting political winds, bad manager, bad company direction, bad economy can all cause you to lose your job.

The best way to have peace of mind is financial security, which requires a different mindset.

analyst74··on Handful of cities driving urban greenhouse gas emissions
Exactly, gp's argument is quite sinister by choosing a timeframe from 1970s till now. US started cutting emission in 1970s, while China only started developing from an extremely impoverished, pre-industrial state that can barely feed its citizens.

And despite standards of living in China still much lower than western countries, you can already see the reduction in per-capita emission since 2013, thanks to all the measures you mentioned.

analyst74··on The rise of never-ending job interviews
I'm not sure if people prefer Amazon's PIP culture. That's what it'll lead to if companies hire more loosely and have to fire people more frequently.
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