U.S. crude oil price tops $80 a barrel, the highest since 2014

Edit: Even the organic local produce was probably brought to you on a gas-guzzling truck.

IIRC, 70% of crude oil is used in the residential (truck/car) and commercial sectors. There are some other applicable sectors like roads and lubricants but account for a few percentage points.

In the past increases in crude oil would cause increases in sales of high mpg vehicles. I remember when crude was $100 a barrel, the prius was flying off the dealerships.

With newer technologies and alternative fuel sources (electric), we should see similar trends with electric vehicle adoption if the price of crude should continue to climb.

The amount you pay on your mortgage and the amount that the previous homeowner gets are two different numbers because you have to pay interest on your mortgage. Low interest rates don't really change your monthly payment people the bank simply charges less interest which lets you bid for higher prices on homes. You get a more expensive home without paying more on your mortgage.

https://www.pe.com/2021/07/23/more-southern-california-emplo...

Essentially, we are seeing cost-push inflation and it's not clear when it will go away given the supply chain problems.

Which is good, deflationary pressure is devastating.

The low prices that occurred during a deflationary phase look appealing after-the-fact. But the cause of those low prices were the fact that nobody could afford anything close to market price for assets. Inflation slowly erodes purchasing power, but deflation completely erases it.

People who've lived through the GFC remember why houses, cars, and stocks where cheap: because your income could go to zero at any time. Even if you had the money now to buy something, that wasn't prudent. The phrase of the era was, "cash is king."

I'm not saying you're necessarily wrong, but keep in mind that the amount of wealth in our economy is much greater than the amount of money; printing cash doesn't necessarily have as big an impact on inflation as one might think, because most value these days is in assets other than cash. You can see this in graphs of e.g. the M2 growth rate vs the inflation rate over time. If the existence of more cash directly caused inflation then those rates would be highly correlated, but instead they are only very loosely correlated and the M2 growth rate has far outstripped inflation in recent decades.

Inflation has not been a monetary phenomenon at all ever since most currencies dropped the gold standard. If that was the case we would have had hyper inflation during QE from 2009. Japan also prints money in excess (for the last 20+ years) and they havent had inflation.

The current inflation (as is with most developed countries) is always due to supply/labor.

This is literally an argument against people arguing that that bias should be reversed out of fear of inflation, so pointing out that deflation is unlikely to be allowed to happen if the people this is arguing against fail to succeed in realigning policy to fit their preferences is...missing the point.

The central bank's mandate nowadays is to keep inflation low. If there is a risk of permanently high inflation they are going to raise interest rates even if that means choking the economy. The reason why they aren't doing it right now is that inflation expectations aren't high enough in the bond market. It's entirely possible that tapering now wouldn't choke but kill the economy.