amou234

China is old [1] and broke [2]. It won't be able to afford to attack Taiwan - for reference, 1930s Japan and Germany had way more young people. Japan was also rich from its empire, while Germany transitioned away from gold standard to afford its wars. 2022 Russia thought the war would end in 3 days.

Also, as we see from Russia's invasion of Ukraine, drones and missiles are effective at taking out the world's second largest navy. Taiwan has very accurate and effective homegrown missiles [3]. China would need to amass a ton of ships which would be easily detected, staff them with only sons from families, and try to move them across a 100 mile straits while under the barrage of US/Japan/Taiwan missiles and drones.

Lastly, China is quickly transitioning to state run economy much like Soviet Union [3], which means innovations and growth will be gone forever, especially in tech industries.

[1] https://www.reddit.com/media?url=https%3A%2F%2Fpreview.redd....

[2] https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/international/global/frugal... https://www.scmp.com/economy/economic-indicators/article/325...

[3] https://www.eurasiantimes.com/taiwan-smashes-chinese-warship...

[4] https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Markets/China-s-favored-sta...

no profits involved in the moon effort, was not competing with any private enterprise at that time

Sure, then by all means share your evidence or data for a successful foreign state owned enterprise vs private enterprises in that country and other countries

Sure, then by all means share your evidence or data for a successful state owned enterprise vs private enterprises

It's a bit hilarious that there are attempts to convince people on a board for hackers and startup founders that state owned enterprises are great and amazing!!

Exactly. The OP didn't know any English teachers in China, or else they can verify that Chinese workers in private enterprises nap on the job/play on their phone/waste a ton of time, to get through the long working hours.

BYD is not a Chinese state enterprise...yet. And yeah, I'm not worried.

Nio Loses $35,000 A Car. https://www.carscoops.com/2023/10/nio-loses-35000-a-car-that...

BYD lost its EV crown to Tesla after just one quarter as China’s EV market slumps https://fortune.com/asia/2024/04/03/byd-loses-ev-crown-to-te...

The EU just got a step closer to hitting Chinese EVs with additional tariffs—and may even apply them retroactively https://fortune.com/2024/03/07/eu-nears-hitting-chinese-evs-...

No state owned enterprises in the history of the world has the quality you've just described - fiercely competitive, nationalistic pride, desperation.

China is now Soviet Union, but with horrendous demographics, mind-numbing debt, and wealth flooding out of the country. China is old and broke. China is fucked.

> The future of Chinese tech belongs to companies that are much more fast moving

Not at all. The future of Chinese tech is state owned enterprises [1]. Just like other Chinese industries, such as state owned real estates [2] or state run communal restaurants [3]. Just like Soviet Union, before it fell.

"The Peterson Institute for International Economics analyzed the market capitalization of China's top 100 companies. It found that the share of total market capitalization held by state-controlled enterprises, in which the government holds a stake of 50% or more, rose to 50% by the end of 2023, the highest proportion in five years"

[1] China's favored state-owned companies squeeze private sector https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Markets/China-s-favored-sta... [2] https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-state-owned-devel... [3] https://www.thinkchina.sg/not-everything-has-be-run-state-th...

wouldn't put it past the Chinese government.

The young in China are so disillusioned, they are buying gold in droves this year [1] (instead of putting it in bank, or invest in stock market or real estate)

[1] https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20240221-youth-appetit...

The last blurb in the article is the most damning part.

"Ma spends much of his time abroad, especially in Japan where he is a visiting professor at Tokyo College, a research institute run by the University of Tokyo"

Jack Ma has no hope for China, as evident by his action. The long internal post may have been requested by the Chinese government, or his staff, to somehow rally Alibaba's failing image. But Jack sees the real pictures on the ground in China. And he chooses Japan.

And the young in China knows it too. That's why the young are laying flat. and sneaking through Mexico into US. and fleeing to Cambodia and Myanmar for work.

Sure, that happened with Europe, when Europeans laughed at trump wanting to terminate nato for not contributing to their promised defense spending. then Russia attacked. Europeans are now firmly allied with US against Russia and China.

When China attacks Australia again, either via a trade war again, or a territory war like Chinese ships water torpedoing Philippine ships or China killing Indian soldiers, perhaps Australians will then change their mind, at least the ones that had dollar signs only in their head.

People respected Australia before for standing up to China and calling China out for covid origins.

well, Australians should care. Australia is part of aukus which is security pact along with US and UK meant to push back against China. Less they've forgotten, Australia was engaged with trade war with China earlier when China slapped unreasonable tariffs on Australia due to Australia wanting to investigate the origin of covid that killed thousands of Australians.

By buying BYD, you are supporting the Chinese government, which is actively supporting Russia [1]

By buying BYD, you are supporting Chinese government's deep subsidization of BYD and its heavy loss per vehicle, to dump on and destroy US/Europe/Japan auto industries and its labor forces

[1]https://www.dw.com/en/china-and-russia-agree-to-boost-ties-i...

Slowing down China innovation rate is essential for defeating Russia, since China is actively supporting Russia.

It doesn't matter what you're doing you know, China is in a Great Depression and will be there for 30 years. It will be even poorer, older, and isolated in 30 years. Also, if you believe what you say, move to China. Stop hiding in the comforts of a democratic country.

I'd love to see the studies mentioning 10% efficiency gains if you have a chance. also, do these studies balance against cost of running the models? remember, that's why stability.ai has collapsed.

Ah, your statement sounds like Chinese EVs were inevitable

It's not a matter of time, cars and the car industry are treated as national security. Chinese EV cars will be even more tariffed in US and Europe in 2024/2025

Xiaomi isn't dumping (yet), but BYD is, and US is already keenly aware of Chinese dumping of electric vehicles years ago, that's why US currently has the 25 percent tax on Chinese made autos that Trump started in 2018, and Biden has continued since [1]. And that has so far prevented BYD and its Chinese EV peers (90 makers so far, but looking like 2-3 bankruptcy each month) from entering US market. Republican lawmakers and Trump are also looking to apply a 100% tariffs [2]

Europe, the slow hare to US's rabbit, finally woke up in 2023, but just barely. They kicked off an inquiry into tariffs on Chinese EV vehicles in October 2023, and would take up to a year to finish [3]. These tariffs looks to be retroactive, as they have started requiring Chinese EV vehicles to be registered [4]. Europe, albeit slow witted, probably isn't going to willingly allow China to kill its own car industry, especially since China is actively helping Russia in attacking Europe.

[1] https://www.vox.com/climate/2024/3/4/24087919/biden-tariff-c...

[2] https://fortune.com/2024/03/16/trump-100-tariff-for-cars-mad...

[3] https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/eu-launches-anti-subsid...

[4] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/eu-moves-slap-retroactive-tar...

Take off your rose colored Chinese dictatorship worshipping glasses. China is in a Great Depression and will be there for 30 years. It will be even poorer, older, and isolated in 30 years.

Also, if you believe what you say, move to China. Stop hiding in the comforts of a democratic country while wishing free countries to fall

So what if China has 7nm chips now, there's no Huawei it can make them 'at scale' https://www.theregister.com/2023/09/19/huaweis_advanced_chip...

In ten years time, China will be older and broker and with even less international friends. It would be a great strategic triumph.

In 10 years time, China may come up with a production of 10-7nm. It may or may not be profitable to mass produce. By then, they will be 12 years into their 25 years Great Depression. Their real estate and stock market will still be in the toilet, and their demographics will go down 200-300m. They will have 30% of their population over 65. It would be iffy to say at that point whether the Chinese government has enough money, besides addressing their enormous debt, to keep pouring into a losing enterprise like this.

The western technology companies will be somewhere way way farther along/bigger by then - look at spacex flight this week for comparison at how fast western technologies move.

Anything's possible I guess, I mean, did anyone expect that China would allow the release of the man made covid virus from its Wuhan biolab (intentionally, or unintentionally) out to the world, killing millions in the process and giving long covid to millions more? And US and UK would be the ones that developed the vaccine successfully, and allowed the rest of the world to fully function after 2 years? And China would be the one that couldn't come up with its own vaccine, and just decided to release it into the wild in 2022 and bury any sort of mention of mass covid deaths [1]? I mean, if it were the other way around, and US and the rest of world was still shut down after 2 years while China was fully functional, TikTok could have been used by China to incite civil unrest in democratic countries, leading some to its downfall.

I mean, there's no way China would release a covid 2, right?

[1]https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2023/02/ch...

That's quite alright, I didn't expect to convince someone who believes that in a war for survival, an opposing dictatorship can freely operate the most powerful propaganda weapon humankind has known against the democracy. Just because you know, it's idealistic.

Current trading activities doesn't mean much by themselves. Europe also still trades with Russia. This is sort of missing the forest for the trees. You have to look at whether there are concerted efforts from Europe/US to REDUCE trade with Russia/China, which is yes. And whether US/Europe is restricting China's military capability, which is yes.

Many times constitution was suspended in US during wartime [1]. Also, school shooting has a very low likelihood of causing US to collapse. Losing an adversarial war against a rival of similar size with nuclear weapons and a brainwashing mechanism via TikTok will. I for one do not want to live in a world controlled by China, where the state can weld me inside my apartment [2], find random reasons to jail me then extract organs from me [3] or many of the atrocious things China does.

[1]https://www.military.com/history/6-times-martial-law-was-dec...

[2]https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/1703503427818

[3] https://brighterworld.mcmaster.ca/articles/analysis-killing-...

[3]

What most of the posters in this thread don't realize is that US is effectively at war with China. China is working in front of the scenes to be the major funder of Russia's war [1] against Europe, which is US's ally amongst the coalition of democratic countries. China is working behind the scenes to stop the supply of artillery shells to Ukraine. [2]. and it is increasingly and more visibly supplying Russia with military supplies. [3]

People need to stop being so naive and realize that it's the aligned democratic countries (Ukraine, Europe, US, Australia, Canada, UK, Japan, Taiwan, South Korea) fighting against the last survival of dictatorships (Russia, China, Iran, North Korea). If you wish the dictatorships to win, please by all means, move there.

[1] However, since 2022, China has amplified its purchase of cheaper Russian oil after the West hit Moscow with unprecedented sanctions https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/22/business/china-top-oil-suppli...

[2] https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2024/03/02/world/politics/...

[3] https://www.gisreportsonline.com/r/china-russia-alignment-co...

Europe is not going to commit seppuku and willingly allow Chinese EVs to destroy their internal car industry. Especially since China is now more and more visibly aiding Russia in its war against Europe. Tariff from EU will stop Chinese EVs dead in the water. In fact, today, there was news that EU is set to allow possible retroactive tariffs on Chinese EVs [1]. And there's an ongoing EU anti-subsidy probe that will conclude this year, most likely resulting in more tariffs.

[1] https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/eu-set...

Right but territory disputes (without actual fighting) are also just political speaks. Money and military supplies from China to Russia speak louder than political speaks - even without some of the Chinese bank settlements, China is still the main funder of Russia's war