alangibson

The UK has just given up on being in any way internationally relevant. If the City of London financial district disappeared, within 10 years we'd all forget that it's still a country.

xXX

The fact that there's not a household-name porn generator yet shows you just how expensive it is to get in the AI game.

$12B for a second rate service, and counting. I continue to be amazed by the speculative investment going into GenAI.

I think you're playing a different game than the Sam Altmans of the world. The level of investment and profit they are looking for can only be justified by creating AGI.

The > 100 P/E ratios we are already seeing can't be justified by something as quotidian as the exceptionally good productivity tools you're talking about.

Dear Perplexity,

We've seen this all before. We know what VC funding inevitably leads to, and we know what Enshittification is. You're just too late to the game.

Been napping for the last decade? One big publicity misstep can end a company.

Most people use LinuxCNC with cards from Mesa now. They have various versions for Ethernet, direct connect to Raspberry Pi GPIO, etc.

Because LinuxCNC runs on Linux. It's an incredibly capable CNC controller.

This is big for the CNC community. RT is a must have, and this makes builds that much easier.

FWIW InteractiveBrokers charges per share, not per transaction. You could theoretically automate rebalancing.

I know it's overall pretty daft, but I've also had the 'personal ETF' idea.

You can just buy all the stocks of the S&P 500 minus Boeing.

Acceptable loss of crew event is like 1 in 250 (can't remember the exact number). They can't quantify the probability of failure, so not putting them in Starliner is the right call.

Lots of tools already provide this info in a dense and easy to consume form. How is doing it through a chatbot better?

Interesting way of looking at it. Does it qualify as a nucleus if it doesn't have any protons tho?

Anyone else's blood boil at a world historical genius being required to verbally bow and scrape before an adolescent that did nothing more significant that being born to noble parents?

What? I use ChatGPT so I dont have to look it up.

And that's the point I've been making in this thread: GenAI is an incredible summarizer. But that's not nearly good enough to justify the investment and multiples were seeing now.

Only AGI can justify the money being laid out right now. Without AGI companies like OpenAI have negative value because they will always loose money.

Yea, we're still in the money raising phase. This should get interesting when investors start looking for an exit. Maybe by then everyone will have forgotten how the SPAC craze turned out.

On this point you're probably right.

Post your counterargument. This is HN after all.

From a business perspective this is right. Unless OpenAI creates AGI they'll probably never make a dime. Great products do not lead inevitably to great profits.

GenAI skeptics and evangelists spend a lot of time talking past each other. The way I see it is that there are three camps, which you can see in the comments in this thread.

Camp 1 is the Ilyas that are convinced they're building a digital god before 2030.

Camp 2 are people that see a very useful tool that's going to change the world for the better.

Camp 3 (my camp) thinks Camp 1 is getting high on their own supply. We often talk to Camp 2 like they are Camp 1, but we shouldn't. We think GenAI is very useful but will likely in the end be used for negative purposes, the way the Internet was perverted into a surveillance and disinformation machine.

> It's astonishing that anyone even tech-adjacent can say something like this.

Then I'll present my credentials. 25 years in tech and I use ChatGPT every day. It's an incredibly good chat bot and code snippet generator. The more I use it the more I see how much of a stochastic parrot it is. It's usually not that hard to find the code it based it's response on on GitHub and Stack overflow if you've got time to kill.

> The AI bubble folks are sitting in roles that are not doing the cutting edge AI work

Ah, the "trust me bro" argument. No one I know of, including Zitron, denies that this tech will increase margins by some number of percentage points.

But that's not the game the core AI guys are playing. They're raising money based on the promise of creating a digital god.

My wife just bought AI skin cream. Definitely no signs of a bubble round here.

This is true of and only if they actually create AGI. Otherwise it's value destroying given the huge costs associated with producing what are essentially very good chat bots.

That just confirmed that you're using "the same backend provider."

Buy itself that's not bad. The problem is that if you're doing what everyone else is doing, then you're probably not realizing any efficiencies. That means your prices will eventually mirror everyone elses.

If AGI isn't created in the next 5 years, then the smart money is going to lose interest in this like they did Crypto and self driving cars.

There are serious discussions about multi-100B USD compute clusters and building multi-GW power generation. If we could replace all artists plus half of mathematicians and scientists tomorrow, it still wouldn't be worth the investment. Nothing short of summoning the Computer God will justify that.

Damn that must have felt good watching those calls go to voicemail

Lol. No clue what you're talking about eh? VAT is not paid by businesses. It is paid directly by the consumer.

Just Google 'price elasticity' for one well known case where there is not necessarily a linear relationship.