ai-x

As long as they are serving the models through Google Cloud and have a SOTA model for

a) internal use b) embedding in their products c) stay abreast with capabilities

they can sit it out.

Note: Google can sell their tokens at cost if they really want to drive out competition, but long term they are better off by everyone making a healthy margin (and Google does a double-dip by also selling compute, services).

So, like any optimal game theory move, they are better off not starting a price war

English is a great language precisely because it listens to no one preaching "we should do this or that". It just evolves organically

Why are you restricting it to US?

If you show productivity, banks have no problem lending you money (new freshly printed money)

Leaving a company != Taking actions.

If a Burger Flipper leaves the company, it costs them exactly the amount of Burgers they fell short of making (to meet the demand) till they find the replacement burger flipper and they are exactly paid that much.

Anyone can burn/bomb a company and cause millions in damages. Doesn't mean they are worth that much

1) You literally made my point.

2) How is your life any better than Meta Muse user (with similar other attributes as yours)? No, imaginary conspiracy theories don't count. Being paranoid actually counts as negative-life experience

People said the same thing about Meta Muse.

HN constantly under-estimate how much the mass forgives a company as long as they release a cool product (barring a few holdouts that really don't matter to 3B DAU company)

There will always be a %age of humans who will be curious how the universe works including LLMs. Delusional to think those humans are only incentivized by degrees, or money.

Humans were curious and started the intelligence / learning explosion much much before money and degrees were invented.

Most HNers are clueless that if you have Top Talent + Capital you already have an insurmountable moat. OpenAI, SpaceX, Anthropic all have that and none of the regular guys can compete against them (if they choose to attack that industry)

Strategically the best ethic czar one can hire for a company is the one that doesn't believe in this fluffy, arbitrary definition of ethics.

100% of the time, ethics department attracts activists, which is 100% trouble for the company in the future.

skill issue. Solved by having the correct model of the world and forces acting on it given (appropriately weighted) current context and your usual variance.

It's usually people who don't understand the context or assign appropriate weights to events and allow randomness that complain about not understanding markets.

Search is now only 50% of the revenue. But sure keep the myth going.

You know SpaceX is still publicly valued at $1.5T marketcap, right? (offering price has nothing to do with anything other than ego of founders/bankers).

Yes, I will wait for the correct valuation when all stocks enter the liquidity pool.

OpenAI/Anthropic obscenely profitable is an easy bet (for me)

If you had asked HN 3 years ago what would code-generating market would be, they would have used the exact same reasoning and given us the opinion "Why no one will pay for glorified auto-complete"

I love how HN ignores past execution results

People are going to be surprised by how obscenely profitable both will be in a couple of years

Smarter models will always route better because it is an intelligent/judgement activity

The only metric that matters is f(cost, time, task). If Anthropic has a SOTA model, it can easily distill every model in the pareto frontier and have the SOTA model route appropriately. They haven't felt the 'sting' yet to optimize that (still growing their ARR at a crazy growth rate)

Ant can top any benchmark that measures f(cost, time, task). The only entities that can beat them in costs are infrastructure providers who can do optimization at that layer. But a pure Model company can *never* compete with Anthropic on f(cost, time, task) if they continue to have SOTA models

and Anthropic can top that benchmark if that's what the users are optimizing for...which is my original point

Model Routing will always be done better by models themselves. Plus routing loses context making it more expensive and less reliable.

Model Routing is just Bitter lesson. The models themselves will get better at this and frontier companies will simply give that capability

we don't know if it is 0.1% deficit, could be 0.05%

There is no reason a smarter model will not build an internal smarter/efficient router itself

One is actually building while the other is making Youtube videos. Also the video literally answers the economic question.

I'm happy with my bet

Yes. https://youtu.be/FKHENV75b9Q?si=JFBsT2HinR02AI4P

Models need datacenters to run. It also need other services to do anything useful

"There’s a clean exception to all of this, and it flips the entire logic."

AI Slop

Completely missing the point of not adding Anthropic, OpenAI, SpaceX.

Mag7 is just an arbitrary list of companies that were coined at a specific time with no rigor.

If you must do rigorous analysis, then just like S&P 500 you need to add drop BigTech / High Growth companies continuously to this Mag7 (or Mag10) and then do analysis

Warren Buffett brags about his strategy. Jeff Bezos brags about his strategy. The reason they can brag is, even if it's simple, competition doesn't have the culture to copy/follow it. (My post is literally downvoted)

Losing privacy has ZERO downsides for ordinary people. Nobody cares about your data. Literally, put all your life on a YouTube channel and see how many views that Video will get. ZERO.

Irrational fears (especially if it's conspiratorial) => Sub-optimal decision.

Just like Buffett, Bezos, my strategy is simple -- go against firms that are making irrational decision. It's the same framework to adopt cloud, AI and many frontier technologies and disrupt